Every fall, we get a college football weekend that looks solid on paper and turns out spectacular because, oh look, there are lots of ranked teams on the road! The first Saturday of November offers a trio of ranked-versus-ranked games, but it also gives us 10 other ranked teams leaving home. All are favored, but there's only a 9% chance they all win, per SP+. On average, three will lose.
Sure, some road teams -- Notre Dame (at Boston College), Memphis (at Rice), Indiana (at a flagging Maryland) -- are probably safer than others, but the distribution of upsets will have a huge impact on a College Football Playoff race that is about to pick up steam. It is November, after all, and the first CFP rankings come out next week. It would hurt quite a bit to stumble before the race really gets going, but a few teams almost certainly will.
Keep your head on a swivel -- there are upsets on the way. Using playoff tiers as our guide, here's everything you need to follow in a spooky and mysterious Week 10.
All times are ET, and all games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.
Playoff tiers
In fiddling with CFP odds this week -- both those of the Allstate Playoff Predictor and my experimental odds based on SP+ -- I discovered two things: (1) Creating a single average from those two sources made a lot of sense to my eyes and smoothed out some rough edges I found in both sets of odds, and (2) that average neatly breaks teams into playoff tiers.
The three remaining unbeaten SEC/Big Ten teams have average odds of making the CFP well over 90%, then a second tier of six teams is between 54% and 71%, a third tier of four teams is between 36% and 50%, a giant fourth tier of hopefuls is between 5% and 25%, and, of course, a fifth tier of Group of 5 teams is primarily fighting over a single bid.
Week 10 might not affect those in Tiers 1 and 2 much, barring a huge road upset, but let's walk through this week's slate, tier-by-tier.
Tier 1
Indiana (8-0, 96.4% average playoff odds)
Ohio State (7-0, 94.8%)
Texas A&M (8-0, 93.2%)
At this point, any of these teams might have to lose three times to fall out of CFP contention. Texas A&M still has to travel to Missouri and Texas and host an athletic South Carolina squad, but it's safe to say these teams are in great shape. The Aggies are off this week, and the Hoosiers and Buckeyes are favored by 20-plus points.
Penn State at No. 1 Ohio State (noon, Fox)
Penn State played well in a tight loss at Iowa two weeks ago and still has plenty of top-end talent. The Nittany Lions are just good enough that Ohio State might do what it has done to Ohio, Washington and others: Trade some blows and let the opponent hang around for a quarter or two before hitting the accelerator.
Current line: OSU -20.5 | SP+ projection: OSU by 13.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 14.7
No. 2 Indiana at Maryland (3:30 p.m., CBS)
Maryland enters November having collapsed once again. The Terps are 21-5 in September under Mike Locksley and 15-28 thereafter. So, this isn't the best time to be playing a team that just moved to first in SP+. Indiana ranks first nationally in points per drive and second in points allowed. The defense is picking up some injuries, but if the Hoosiers bring even their B-game, they'll cruise.
Current line: Indiana -21.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 16.1 | FPI projection: Indiana by 17.1
Tier 2
Alabama (7-1, 71.2%)
Ole Miss (7-1, 70.6%)
Oregon (7-1, 67.9%)
Georgia (6-1, 61.4%)
Georgia Tech (8-0, 60.0%)
BYU (8-0, 54.0%)
Here, we get unbeaten Big 12 and ACC teams and some one-loss SEC and Big Ten teams. If you add these teams' playoff odds, you'll see that on average, about four of these six will make the CFP. Only three play in Week 10, and two are single-digit favorites.
No. 8 Georgia Tech at NC State (7:30 p.m., ESPN2)
NC State is physical, randomly explosive and dangerous despite suffering four losses in five games. But it will be difficult making stops against a Tech offense that can beat you with either big plays or relentless efficiency. Quarterback and resident tough guy Haynes King gets the benefit of the doubt at this point, even if he looks like a grizzled 20-year veteran every time he gets up after a hit.
Current line: Tech -5.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 9.8 | FPI projection: Tech by 5.6
Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (3:30 p.m., ABC)
Teams have played well under interim coaches this season -- and there have been a lot of them -- and with Florida's stellar defense, it wouldn't take many breaks for the Gators to make this a game. But considering Georgia spots every opponent a multiscore lead and then wins anyway, it's hard to think Gunner Stockton and the Dawgs won't find a way.
Current line: UGA -7.5 | SP+ projection: UGA by 10.2 | FPI projection: UGA by 9.3
South Carolina at No. 7 Ole Miss (7 p.m., ESPN)
Ole Miss is in fantastic playoff shape, but the Rebels haven't won an SEC title in 62 years, and they don't have a ton of margin for error in that hunt. South Carolina is a terrifying underdog with the raw, individual talent and athleticism it boasts -- just ask Alabama -- but that dreadful offensive line will probably prevent the Gamecocks from making a sustained challenge.
Current line: Rebels -12.5 (down from -14.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: Rebels by 16.4 | FPI projection: Rebels by 9.9
Tier 3
Texas Tech (7-1, 50.4%)
Miami (6-1, 45.8%)
Vanderbilt (7-1, 42.2%)
Notre Dame (5-2, 36.6%)
On average, two of these teams -- a one-loss Big 12 team, a one-loss ACC team, a one-loss SEC team with a weaker résumé and a two-loss Notre Dame team with a great strength of schedule (that will dissipate significantly in November) -- will make it. You could make the case that Texas Tech should have been in Tier 2, because of its 50% odds and the fact that the Red Raiders' lone loss came without starting quarterback Behren Morton, but we'll stick them here for now. They could face a stiff test in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday, while Vandy is an underdog in Austin, Texas. This tier could see a shakeup Saturday.
No. 9 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Texas (noon, ABC)
At 7-1 and ranked ninth in the country, having narrowly escaped against Missouri last week, Clark Lea's incredible Vanderbilt Commodores remain one of the main characters of the 2025 season. Diego Pavia guides an offense that ranks seventh in success rate* and points per drive, the defense that ranked 124th in defensive SP+ just two seasons ago now ranks 32nd, and the Commodores still have a likely mulligan in their pocket heading into November.
(* Success rate: How frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on second and 100% on third or fourth.)
The Commodores won't be the main characters in Austin on Saturday, however. Those honors instead go to their host, the preseason No. 1 team that has looked like a playoff team, at most, once this season.
It's put-up-or-shut-up time for Texas. After needing overtime (and some heroic punt returns from Ryan Niblett) to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State -- which are a combined 0-9 in SEC play -- the past two weeks, the Horns will have to look the part Saturday, and then again in two weeks at Georgia, and then again two weeks after that against Texas A&M. (Technically, they could lose to Vandy but still get in with top-10 wins over UGA and A&M. But that's a pretty tenuous path.) Defense and special teams have carried Texas as far as they can. Now, the offense has to show up.
It has to show up with or without Arch Manning. He left the MSU game in overtime because of a concussion and is listed as questionable. Backup QB Matthew Caldwell, a journeyman who was a redshirt freshman backup at Gardner-Webb when Manning was lighting up defenses as a high school senior at New Orleans' Isidore Newman School and earning a nearly perfect recruiting ranking, threw the game-winning TD pass against the Bulldogs. If he has to start Saturday, he has to top what Manning has done to date with a running game that has been a surprising (and injury-laden) dud and an offensive line that hasn't proved ready for prime time. One way or another, the Horns will have to move the ball and score points, even in potentially sloppy conditions.
The defense will still help. For as good as Vandy's offense has been this season, Texas' D is the best the Commodores have faced, and against three other top-15 defenses, the Commodores have averaged a merely decent 20.7 points per game (against everyone else: 49.0 points per game). Texas probably won't have to score around 40 to win Saturday, but the Horns will either start looking like the contenders they were supposed to be, or they will bow out of the playoff hunt.
Current line: Texas -2.5 | SP+ projection: Texas by 2.8 | FPI projection: Texas by 5.7
No. 13 Texas Tech at Kansas State (3:30 p.m., Fox)
OK, no more getting hurt, Behren Morton. Texas Tech lost its starting quarterback for part or all of four games and went 3-1, dropping only a heartbreaker to Arizona State, but now backup Will Hammond is out because of a season-ending injury. Third-stringer Mitch Griffis was excellent against Oklahoma State last week, but that barely counts. Morton should return Saturday, and he needs to stick in the lineup.
Of course, even with a 100% healthy Morton, the Red Raiders could have their hands full this weekend, as Kansas State is one of the country's hottest teams. The defense has been solid, but the most improvement has come from the offense -- quarterback Avery Johnson, specifically.
Avery Johnson, first four games: 48.0 Total QBR, 60.6% completion rate, 11.1 yards per completion; 21.5 non-sack rushing yards per game
Johnson, last four games: 80.5 Total QBR, 65.5% completion rate, 12.7 yards per completion; 53.0 non-sack rushing yards per game
Johnson is using his legs more, and it's helping the run and passing games as star running back Dylan Edwards remains out. Tech, however, has by far the best defense the Wildcats have faced this season. Losing tackle Skyler Gill-Howard to injury hurt, but linebacker Jacob Rodriguez and edge rusher David Bailey are playing like All-Americans, and the secondary is infinitely better than it was last year. Tech is favored for a reason, but this is the worst time to play K-State.
Current line: Tech -7.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 12.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 3.6
No. 10 Miami at SMU (noon, ESPN)
For 30 minutes against Stanford, Miami backed up some concerns I've been having about the Hurricanes. They run and pass efficiently, but a lack of big plays forces them to plod down the field, and early drives stalled via a missed field goal and turnover on downs. Carson Beck & Co. were tied with the Cardinal 7-7 in the third quarter.
The Hurricanes then hit the gas and cruised 42-7, of course. But droughts and random mistakes -- a penalty here, an interception there -- are worrisome. And if SMU's offense weren't such a mess, I might talk myself into a Mustangs upset. They have overachieved against defensive projections for five of the past six games, but the offense ranks 124th in three-and-out rate and 114th in turnovers. They can still be pretty explosive, but the mistakes, from quarterback Kevin Jennings and others, are a problem. And Miami's defense, with Rueben Bain Jr. up front and slot corner Keionte Scott and safety Jakobe Thomas in the back, is the best they've faced.
SMU is still 3-1 in conference play. An upset in potentially rainy conditions would keep the Mustangs in the ACC title hunt. But that would require a level of quality they haven't consistently shown this year.
Current line: Miami -11.5 | SP+ projection: Miami by 8.1 | FPI projection: Miami by 5.3
No. 12 Notre Dame at Boston College (3:30 p.m., ESPN)
BC is coming off of its first decent performance in nearly two months -- a competitive loss to Louisville -- but the Notre Dame defense has allowed just 12.8 points per game over its past four contests (despite playing two teams in the offensive SP+ top 10). And if running back Jeremiyah Love's 200-yard game against USC is any indication, we might see a Heisman push from him in November. The Irish should romp.
Current line: Irish -28.5 | SP+ projection: Irish by 29.3 | FPI projection: Irish by 29.3
Tier 4
Louisville (6-1, 26.1%)
Texas (6-2, 26.1%)
Virginia (7-1, 21.0%)
Tennessee (6-2, 19.1%)
Cincinnati (7-1, 18.4%)
Oklahoma (6-2, 15.7%)
Utah (6-2, 14.8%)
Houston (7-1, 14.3%)
Washington (6-2, 14.2%)
Michigan (6-2, 12.5%)
Missouri (6-2, 11.9%)
USC (5-2, 10.6%)
Iowa (6-2, 7.2%)
Pitt (6-2, 6.7%)
Nebraska (6-2, 4.5%)
This is the Desperation Tier. On average, only about two of these 15 teams will make it, and aside from the ACC/Big 12 teams that could still reach their conference title games, no one here can survive another loss and feel confident.
Here's where the real action is in Week 10. In addition to Texas-Vandy, we get two Tier 4 semi-elimination games, plus a Utah-Cincy game that will help to determine the hierarchy in the Big 12 race.
No. 18 Oklahoma at No. 14 Tennessee (7:30 p.m., ABC)
Last season, former Oklahoma quarterback Josh Heupel and his Tennessee Volunteers welcomed the Sooners to the SEC with a 25-15 defeat. This season, he'll have a chance to all but eliminate the Sooners from the CFP race. And as with last week's Auburn-Arkansas game, these teams are playing different sports. Oklahoma's SEC games have averaged 40.8 total points, and Tennessee's have averaged 74.4. The Vols haven't allowed fewer than 31 points in league play, and the Sooners haven't topped 26.
This is quite the strength-versus-strength and weakness-versus-weakness matchup.
When Tennessee has the ball
Tennessee's offense: eighth in success rate, 11th in points per drive
Oklahoma's defense: first in success rate, fifth in points per drive
When Oklahoma has the ball
Oklahoma's offense: 50th in success rate, 70th in points per drive
Tennessee's defense: 106th in success rate, 95th in points per drive
OU's defense is awesome, but it's noteworthy that the Sooners have played only one top-40 offense (per SP+) and gave up 431 yards and 34 points to Ole Miss. Rebels quarterback Trinidad Chambliss punished the Sooners with his legs in a way that UT's Joey Aguilar probably won't, but Aguilar avoids sacks and boasts two big-play receivers in Chris Brazzell II and Mike Matthews.
Oklahoma's offense has underachieved against projections for five straight games but got an intriguing boost last week from running back Xavier Robinson, who gained 136 yards from scrimmage with two touchdowns. Quarterback John Mateer has been carrying a heavy load -- which is hard with an injured hand -- and help from the run game would be welcome. Of course, Tennessee's defense tends to be pretty accommodating. The Vols gave up 34 points last week to a Kentucky offense that was averaging 15.8 in conference play.
Current line: Vols -3.5 | SP+ projection: Sooners by 1.1 | FPI projection: Vols by 3.3
No. 17 Cincinnati at No. 24 Utah (10:15 p.m., ESPN)
Utah evidently responds well to losses. When the Utes fell to Texas Tech in Week 4, they turned around and walloped West Virginia and Arizona State by a combined 90-24. After they dropped a close one to BYU, they trounced Colorado 53-7 with their backup quarterback.
Of course, to respond well to a loss, you must lose first, and Utah can't afford to do that again. But knowing backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin is capable of running the show like he did last week is nice, even if he went just 10-for-22 passing. Starter Devon Dampier is expected to return, which would be good because he's a more efficient (albeit less explosive) passer; tackle Dontay Corleone, end Jalen Hunt and Cincinnati defend the run far better than the pass.
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby commands a balanced offense that can exploit weaknesses via either the run or pass. Most teams run against Utah, as the Utes are eighth in yards allowed per dropback and sack rate but 55th in yards allowed per carry (not including sacks). The Bearcats' leading rusher, Evan Pryor, is out, but they still have Tawee Walker (more efficient but less explosive than Pryor), and Sorsby picks up a lot of first downs. His elite elusiveness could give the Bearcats options.
SP+ and these playoff tiers suggest unbeaten BYU and one-loss Texas Tech are atop the Big 12 favorites list; the winner of this one will be No. 3 and awaiting a chance to move up.
Current line: Utah -10.5 (up from -7.5) | SP+ projection: Utah by 9.1 | FPI projection: Utah by 9.7
No. 23 USC at Nebraska (7:30 p.m., NBC)
No, these two teams are not likely to reach the CFP -- they're each near the bottom of Tier 4 -- but this one should still be enjoyable. The team of the 1990s is hosting the team of the 2000s in a fun helmet game, and four of five games between Nebraska's Matt Rhule and USC's Lincoln Riley have been decided by one score (all won by Riley).
Nebraska's defense allows only 4.6 yards per dropback (ninth nationally), while USC's offense averages 9.5 (third). Jayden Maiava completed only 22 of 42 passes against Notre Dame with two picks, and NU has a chance to win this matchup, but even with a couple of injured running backs and linemen, USC runs the ball well. The Huskers' run defense is suspect.
Nebraska's offense has been hard to figure out all season. The Huskers rank 15th in success rate, and Dylan Raiola is completing 73% of his passes, but iffy explosiveness and poor red zone operation have held them back. USC doesn't produce good efficiency or explosiveness numbers on defense, but the Trojans survive with red zone stops and turnovers.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 1.7 | FPI projection: USC by 5.9
No. 15 Virginia at California (3:45 p.m., ESPN2)
Virginia has won its past four games by a combined 14 points, three in overtime. We know how these runs tend to end -- rudely and suddenly -- but with a combination of an efficient run game and strong pass rush, the Cavaliers could handle a Cal team with a poor run defense and poor pass protection. If Cal's Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has time to throw, however, the Golden Bears could end the streak.
Current line: UVA -4.5 | SP+ projection: UVA by 7.9 | FPI projection: UVA by 4.7
No. 16 Louisville at Virginia Tech (3 p.m., The CW)
Virginia Tech has won three of five under interim coach Philip Montgomery, controlling the ball with a good run game and forcing lots of third-and-longs on defense. Louisville defends the run well, however, and if running back Isaac Brown picks up where he left off last week (14 carries, 205 yards), the Cards won't have many third downs to worry about.
Current line: Louisville -10.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 15.3 | FPI projection: Louisville by 6.4
West Virginia at No. 22 Houston (noon, FS1)
Since losing to Texas Tech, Houston has overachieved against SP+ projections for three straight games. The Cougars are defending the run and rushing the passer well; WVU can't run the ball or protect the passer. Willie Fritz has engineered a fantastic second-year turnaround, and November will tell us if his Coogs can threaten for the Big 12 title.
Current line: Houston -13.5 (down from -15.5) | SP+ projection: Houston by 18.1 | FPI projection: Houston by 10.0
Pitt at Stanford (3:30 p.m., ACCN)
Installing a freshman at QB is usually a sign that you're punting on your season, but Pitt put Mason Heintschel in and became a playoff contender -- Pitt won four October ACC games by an average of 44-21. The Panthers should handle Stanford, though the two ACC teams that have visited the Cardinal this season both massively underachieved against projections and lost.
Current line: Pitt -14.5 | SP+ projection: Pitt by 22.1 | FPI projection: Pitt by 7.0
Purdue at No. 21 Michigan (7 p.m., BTN)
Michigan's offense has scored 13 points in each of its two losses and has averaged 34.3 in six wins. The latter is far more likely than the former here, but Purdue is increasingly competitive, with two coulda-woulda-shoulda losses in three weeks. Michigan is three games (and three projected wins) from a possible win-and-you're-in game against Ohio State.
Current line: Michigan -21.5 | SP+ projection: Michigan by 21.7 | FPI projection: Michigan by 21.6
Tier (Group of) 5
North Texas (7-1, 15.3%)
James Madison (7-1, 14.9%)
USF (6-2, 14.1%)
Memphis (7-1, 14.0%)
Boise State (6-2, 9.0%)
San Diego State (6-1, 5.6%)
Navy (7-0, 5.3%)
Unless we get some wild "three- or four-loss Big 12/ACC champion" scenario, the Group of 5 is most likely getting only one CFP team, and with eight teams all with average odds between 5% and 15%, this race is delightfully unsettled. Tulane fell ignominiously to UTSA on Thursday, but three of those teams are comfortable favorites this weekend, and two face off early Saturday in Denton.
Navy at North Texas (noon, ESPN2)
It feels odd that Navy's playoff odds are so low despite entering November unbeaten, but the main reason is the upcoming schedule: The Midshipmen will be underdogs in at least three of their next four games, including Saturday's trip to Denton.
Navy's offense is as awesome as ever; the Middies are fourth nationally in points per drive, and Blake Horvath remains a special option quarterback. But their defense ranks 88th in points allowed per drive, and against the two top-100 teams (per SP+) they've faced, they won by a combined three points.
Each of Navy's November opponents has an awesome offense, starting with North Texas. The Mean Green are fifth in offensive SP+ and have scored at least 33 points in every game. They suffered a brief, turnover-based implosion against USF in their lone loss, but quarterback Drew Mestemaker keys a relentless passing game, and Mean Green running backs, led by Caleb Hawkins, average 6.0 yards per carry.
UNT defends the pass well, but the Mean Green are just 113th in rushing success rate allowed. Navy will likely dominate the ball and keep the possession count down, but to remain unbeaten, the Midshipmen will still have to make a stop or two.
Current line: UNT -6.5 | SP+ projection: UNT by 5.5 | FPI projection: UNT by 8.5
Wyoming at San Diego State (7 p.m., CBSSN)
The run continues for San Diego State: Sean Lewis' Aztecs have won five in a row by an average score of 30-7, and though the war-of-attrition style isn't a thriller, they're projected favorites over each of their next two opponents before a massive visit from Boise State in Week 12. But they first must maintain their form against a Wyoming team that has won two of three and is always up for a rock fight.
Current line: SDSU -10.5 | SP+ projection: SDSU by 15.2 | FPI projection: SDSU by 9.0
No. 25 Memphis at Rice (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN2)
In its first year under option-meister Scott Abell, Rice has been about what we expected: not great but randomly dangerous. The 4-4 Owls upset UConn last week and now face a Memphis team that has given up some big run plays at times. Memphis' offense is probably too good, but the Tigers can't afford a letdown now that they're back in great shape in the CFP race.
Current line: Memphis -13.5 | SP+ projection: Memphis by 20.3 | FPI projection: Memphis by 18.8
Fresno State at Boise State (3:30 p.m., FS1)
If the top teams in the American Conference keep taking each other out, two-loss Boise State might be poised to swoop in and snag the playoff bid. But the Broncos have to keep winning. Fresno State's offense has averaged only 16.3 points over its past four games, but the Bulldogs defend the run well and force turnovers. That could keep things close for a while.
Current line: BSU -17.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 16.3 | FPI projection: BSU by 18.8
Week 10 chaos superfecta
We're again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. The Big 12 was unfortunately unwilling to play the upset game last week, so we fell back under .500 (4-5) for the season.
This time, we're leaning into the "ranked teams on the road" thing: SP+ says that there's only a 43% chance that Georgia Tech (73% win probability against Maryland), Texas Tech (78% against Kansas State), Louisville (83% against Virginia Tech) and Pitt (92% against Stanford) all win. Let's take down a ranked team (or, in Pitt's case, a merely very hot team).
Week 10 playlist
We covered a lot more games than usual above, but for each window, from Friday evening through late Saturday, here's at least one more game you should pay attention to if you want to get the absolute most out of the weekend.
Friday evening
North Carolina at Syracuse (7:30 p.m., ESPN). UNC has gone from getting blown out by everyone to dropping two straight heartbreakers. That's technically improvement, though it probably doesn't feel like it. The Tar Heels' defense is improving quickly and now faces a Syracuse attack that has averaged 12.5 points per game since QB Steve Angeli's injury. UNC has to score, too, but probably not that much.
Current line: Syracuse -2.5 | SP+ projection: Syracuse by 5.3 | FPI projection: Syracuse by 4.7
Early Saturday
Duke at Clemson (noon, ACCN). Duke is 3-1 in ACC play and is a projected favorite in every remaining game after this. An upset would position the Blue Devils quite well. Clemson's Cade Klubnik is racing to return, but this game will probably be determined by how many big plays Duke can generate (and how many turnovers it can avoid) against a disappointing but talented Tigers defense.
Current line: Clemson -2.5 | SP+ projection: Clemson by 2.0 | FPI projection: Clemson by 2.2
Army at Air Force (noon, CBS). Army has won six of its past eight in this bitter rivalry. Air Force hasn't topped 17 points on the Black Knights since 2016, but the Falcons also haven't scored fewer than 24 this season. Quarterback Liam Szarka is soaring, and Army's defensive front is banged up. And because Air Force's defense absolutely stinks, this might not be the typical Air Force-Army rock fight.
Current line: Air Force -1.5 (flipped from Army -1.5) | SP+ projection: Air Force by 0.2 | FPI projection: Army by 1.2
Saturday afternoon
New Mexico at UNLV (3 p.m., Mountain West Network). Two fun, optimistic teams playing fun, optimistic (and often defense-optional) football with fun, optimistic quarterbacks (New Mexico's Jack Layne, UNLV's Anthony Colandrea). You might have to follow this one on your laptop -- which is unfortunate because it's perfect quadbox-viewing material -- but it will probably be worth it.
Current line: UNLV -3.5 | SP+ projection: UNLV by 6.0 | FPI projection: UNLV by 5.4
Saturday evening
Wake Forest at Florida State (7:30 p.m., ACCN). FSU has lost four straight, and faith in Mike Norvell is hanging by a thread. The Seminoles are talented enough to be favored here, but Wake Forest's defense is excellent, and the Demon Deacons have overachieved against SP+ projections for four straight games. They have all the confidence FSU lacks at the moment.
Current line: FSU -9.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 8.2 | FPI projection: FSU by 11.2
Late Saturday
Hawai'i at San José State (10:30 p.m., CBSSN). San Diego State is atop the "pleasant surprises" list in the Mountain West, but Hawai'i is close. The Rainbow Warriors are two points from an unbeaten record in conference play, and SP+ gives them a 20% chance of reaching 9-3 overall. That will require a win here against a snake-bitten 2-5 SJSU team that has lost four games by only 15 combined points.
Current line: SJSU -2.5 | SP+ projection: Hawai'i by 1.7 | FPI projection: SJSU by 4.0
Smaller-school showcase
Let's once again save a shoutout for the glorious lower levels of the sport. Here are three games you should track.
Division III: No. 8 Wisconsin-Whitewater at No. 9 Wisconsin-River Falls (2 p.m., local streaming). We again check in on the Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletics Conference, aka the most hypnotic race in football. There's a four-way tie atop the WIAC at 3-1, and those four teams are conveniently pairing off! No. 10 La Crosse is favored over No. 23 Stout in one matchup, but the headliner is in River Falls, where the host Falcons are looking for their first win over Whitewater since 2001 and their first playoff bid since 1996. Their past four losses in the series have all been painfully close; this would be a great time to finally get one over the line.
SP+ projection: UWW by 1.4.
FCS: Dartmouth at No. 15 Harvard (3 p.m., ESPN+). Harvard is only 15th in the polls despite winning six games by an average of 43-12. SP+, however, loves the Crimson, ranking them behind only Tarleton State and mighty North Dakota State. We'll potentially find out who's right in the playoffs, but in the meantime, this is the closest test Harvard will face until the season finale at Yale. Dartmouth is 5-1 and upset Yale three weeks ago; defense has long been the Big Green's calling card, and theirs is excellent this year.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 13.3.
Division II: No. 7 Colorado State-Pueblo at No. 6 Western Colorado (3 p.m., RMAC Network). We have a pair of top-15 matchups in Division II: No. 3 West Florida is a slight favorite at No. 15 Delta State, and out West, this one could have major playoff seeding implications. Western Colorado is unbeaten and dominant, and CSU-Pueblo has won its past four by an average of 51-12. These two defenses create loads of negative plays -- first to 10 TFLs wins.
Top-10 Battle in the Bowl https://t.co/NEAmilLnjt @MountaineerFB @RMAC_SPORTS @CollegeGameDay @PatMcAfeeShow @ESPN_BillC @FOXSports @BNKonFOX @espn @D2Football #7723ft #ThinAirCrew #BringGameDay2Gunni #BringYourMOJO
— Western Colorado Mountaineers (@WCUMountaineers) October 30, 2025
SP+ projection: Western Colorado by 6.0.