As the countdown continues to the start of the 2020-21 college basketball season on Nov. 25, ESPN.com's panel of experts is making its predictions for all of the nation's top leagues. After looking at the Big 12, Big East, American Athletic Conference and the nation's top mid-majors, we move to the Pac-12, where football season just started, but the league's importance on the college basketball landscape should not be dismissed in 2020-21.
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Pac-12 2020-21 superlatives
Player of the Year
Medcalf: Remy Martin, Arizona State
Borzello: Remy Martin, Arizona State
Gasaway: Remy Martin, Arizona State
Lunardi: Remy Martin, Arizona State
Newcomer of the Year
Medcalf: Ziaire Williams, Stanford
Borzello: Evan Mobley, USC
Gasaway: Evan Mobley, USC
Lunardi: Evan Mobley, USC
Pac-12 2020-21 writer roundtable
The Pac-12 is back! (Or at least it looked that way last season.) After the league needed help to muster three NCAA tournament bids (and none better than a No. 9 seed) in 2019, the Pac-12 looked set to receive five or even six bids last season depending on the way Champ Week broke. How many NCAA tournament teams do you see in the Conference of Champions in 2020-21? Is this league going to look more like the 2019 or 2020 version, and why?
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: This feels like a five-bid league to me. I think Oregon and Arizona State could evolve into two of the top teams in America. Oscar da Silva (15.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is back for Stanford, which finished seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and now adds five-star recruit Ziaire Williams. The Cardinal will earn an invite. That 11-3 rally in the last 14 games was a great sign for a UCLA team that should dance in Mick Cronin's second season in Westwood. Then, it comes down to Arizona, USC, Utah or Colorado securing a spot in the field. I like those odds.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: I think the league has three top-25-caliber teams in Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA. I picked Arizona State to win the league in the below rankings, but I think Oregon would edge it if LJ Figueroa (Saint John's) is granted a waiver to play immediately this season. The Ducks have a better track record of figuring things out as the season progresses, while the Sun Devils have as much offensive firepower on the perimeter as anyone else in the country. UCLA isn't too far behind those two. But where do we go from there? Stanford would have been a top-25 team if Tyrell Terry didn't go pro, while USC and Arizona have to mix and match a long list of newcomers. I don't think all of them make it, so let's go with five.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: I envision four Pac-12 teams making the tournament: Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Stanford. That's a modest number compared to what we think we would have seen if there had been a 2020 NCAA tournament, but the coming season still projects to represent a sharp rebound from the Pac-12's dark days of 2018-19. The Ducks, Sun Devils, Bruins and Cardinal all look strong for 2020-21, and a good showing from, say, Arizona or USC could push the number of bids higher still.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: Bill Walton says the Conference of Champions is a 12-bid league, and who am I to argue? All kidding aside, I do not expect a return to the depths of 2-3 bid status for the league. On paper, there are five NCAA teams -- Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Stanford and Arizona -- and there is insurance behind them if things go sideways at Arizona. Plus the bottom of the conference is better, which will help the metrics of the teams in genuine contention.
Oregon is the consensus favorite in the league and a team that, beyond this year, has the No. 2 recruiting class coming in for 2021. Meanwhile, UCLA arrived ahead of schedule in Mick Cronin's first year, competed for the Pac-12 title and is clearly positioned for more. Whose near-term prospects (next three to five years) are you more bullish on -- the Ducks' or the Bruins'?
Gasaway: During the Steve Alford years, UCLA won two out of every three games and brought in excellent recruiting classes. What's been impressive about Oregon is that the Ducks have performed at an even higher standard. Dana Altman has won better than 71% of his games during his tenure in Eugene, a number that's improved to 75% over the past five seasons. Oregon also reached the Final Four in 2017, losing by a single point to eventual champion North Carolina. In short, the Ducks are the team to beat in the Pac-12 until a rival comes along and proves otherwise. You have to be bullish on Oregon.
Still, the UO-UCLA rivalry is off to a good start in the Cronin years, with the Bruins coming back strong last season and capturing second place in the Pac-12 race. You also have to give the edge to UCLA this season in terms of returning experience, with Chris Smith, Cody Riley and Jalen Hill, among others, all coming back this year (and Johnny Juzang arriving as a transfer from Kentucky). It's going to be a dogfight at the top of the Pac-12.
Medcalf: Oregon is what UCLA used to be in the Pac-12, so I'll definitely go with the Ducks here, too. Cronin impressed last season, and we'll never know what might have been if Daishen Nix had not backed off his UCLA commitment to play instead in the G League. Cronin also has a strong class in 2021, but I think it matters a lot that Altman has turned his Oregon program into a hub for elite recruits and transfers. We're headed toward the one-time transfer option for every athlete in the country. Altman's success with transfers throughout his career, I think, will help him replenish his talent pool even in years when he's not as successful on the high school recruiting trail.
UCLA is the opposite. The Bruins don't chase transfers, so they'll need Cronin to hit the jackpot year after year with top talent. Even in the years Steve Alford did that, he couldn't elevate the Bruins over Oregon, which is a true powerhouse in the sport now and will continue to be in the coming years.
Borzello: Give me Oregon. The Ducks have finished ahead of UCLA in the Pac-12 standings in four of the past five seasons, and I think they're better-positioned of the two for this season. UCLA did finish last season on a tear and seemed to figure things out under Cronin, and the Bruins are going to hope that momentum carries over to this season. But Altman works wonders every season with Oregon's roster.
Nearly every year, the Ducks pick up a few players very late in the process to strengthen the roster, and every year, Altman makes it work. They've played big, they've played small, different tempos, changing defenses -- but they're always a factor by the time March rolls around. Coaches around the country think Altman is one of the best and most underrated coaches in the country in terms of X's and O's and adjustments. Add in the fact that Oregon has recruited as well as anyone else out West, and I like the Ducks moving forward.
Lunardi: It's Masters week, so we'll call Oregon the leader in the clubhouse. The Ducks have been the league's marquee program since Altman broke through with Elite Eight and Final Four teams in 2016 and 2017. The Ducks have averaged more than 27 wins over the past five seasons. They have earned the right to remain "best in class" until proven otherwise.
There are a whole bunch of intriguing teams and players in the Pac-12 beyond those we've discussed above. Give us one more team and one more player you want the world to know about from the Pac-12.
Lunardi: For me, Stanford is the team and program to watch. While the heights of Mike Montgomery in the early 2000s may have been unsustainable, it's inconceivable that a school with Stanford's resources and drawing power can't manage more than one NCAA tournament bid in 13 years. Jerod Haase had the Cardinal knocking on the door last March but lost inexplicably to Cal in the conference tournament. He has to break down the door this year, and senior center Oscar da Silva is just the guy to do it.
Medcalf: Player? It's da Silva for me, too. He made 77% of his free throws and 61% of his shots inside the arc last season. His team unraveled, going 5-10 in its last 15 games. But he's a Pac-12 Player of the Year candidate.
Team? Maybe USC. Andy Enfield's squad has lost more production than any other team in this league -- more than 50 points per game. Onyeka Okongwu was a big part of that. If Isaiah Mobley can make a leap and his brother, Evan, matches the hype, the Trojans will have a potent and reliable frontcourt to anchor a team that, if the chemistry grows with all the new faces, could have an interesting season that ends in the league's top tier and the NCAA tournament.
Borzello: Stanford is the team most likely to break that top three of Oregon, Arizona State and UCLA, and the Cardinal likely would have received some picks to win the Pac-12 title if Tyrell Terry didn't go pro. Haase had them on the precipice of an NCAA tournament berth last season, and now they add top-10 prospect Ziaire Williams to go with Myron's guy da Silva.
As for a player, he isn't under the radar, but he's barely been mentioned once in this roundtable, and that's a shame. USC freshman Evan Mobley is a truly elite prospect and a real threat to be the No. 1 pick whenever the next NBA draft is. The 7-footer was considered the top prospect in the 2020 class for much of his high school career, and his skill level is hard to find in someone his size.
Gasaway: The correct answers here are of course "Stanford" and "Utah's Timmy Allen." In fact, I wrote all about it. Read more!
Anonymous coaches size up the Pac-12
Jeff Borzello spoke to Pac-12 coaches about their expectations for the league in 2020-21.
"Dana Altman's system, it doesn't change. He runs the same system he's run throughout his time in the Pac-12. But he has the ability to just plug guys in and make it work. They're going to be fundamentally sound defensively. They're going to be unbelievable in regards to being efficient offensively. They have athletes. They play at a pace -- it's hard to explain -- they've got great athletes, but they play in the half court and he just grinds you up. You're not going to speed them up offensively."
"Arizona State has a lot of offensive firepower, but only a couple guys can average 20 a game. They have to add up their scoring averages and realize in college, you're not going to average 180 points. [Marcus] Bagley, [Joshua] Christopher, Holland Woods, Alonzo Verge, Remy Martin. As good as they are offensively, the question is what they're going to do defensively. They'll switch a lot, play a frenetic style, different defensive looks. Are they going to rebound well enough? Are they tough enough inside?"
"UCLA started buying in to Mick Cronin's system [in the last month of the season]. They bought in on the defensive end, they became one of the best rebounding teams in the conference. Their big men didn't allow anything easy around the rim. Walling guys up made it tough to score. Offensively, they took advantage of mismatches. Chris Smith is 6[-foot]-8, 6-9, can score on the perimeter and in the post, got better as the season went on. Tyger Campbell got more and more comfortable. They had a toughness that a lot of teams in the league didn't have."
"Sean [Miller] is a hell of a coach. It's not going to be the Arizona of old. It's probably going to take them some time to mesh. I would think these guys will be competitive once you get into the middle of the Pac-12 season. They had a lot of turnover, so it will take some time. But they have a system where they plug and replace. So they'll try to execute the system. They'll run sets, take you deep in the clock. But they've got a lot of talent."
"A lot of [Oregon's success] was predicated on having Payton Pritchard for four years. They're really good. They've got size and athleticism, and [Altman] does a great job of making those guys play the right way for the most part. His system, he knows what he wants out of every possession. They rarely have dead possessions. But Payton Pritchard was Drew Brees, Peyton Manning. He was Steve Nash to that offense. He could shoot it, score it, pass it. He knew that offense like the back of his hand."
"Losing Romello White was a big loss [for Arizona State]. He really held down the middle for them. Sizewise, he was an enforcer, went to the brink of five fouls almost every game. They were a different team when he was on the court. Jalen Graham was a very good freshman big man. So we'll see if he can take that next step."
"Stanford, with Ziaire Williams, is gonna be a really good team. [Tyrell] Terry leaving hurts them, because what are they doing at the point guard spot? They have some firepower coming back. [Oscar] da Silva coming back, he's a load. When he got hurt midway through last year, it hurt them a little bit. I love Spencer Jones. One of the best shooters in the conference. He's got great size, he's someone you have to scout for. Now you add Ziaire to that. And people don't realize they were the best defensive team in our league last year. If they can mirror what they did defensively and bring in even more consistent offensive firepower, they can be a dangerous team."
"I don't think there will be a guy who will have the ball in their hand in more big situations than Remy Martin. He's proven in Pac-12 play that he's one of the best guards in this league. And just by the fact Payton Pritchard is gone, I don't see another player that will have more of an impact on his team in this league than Remy. The other players around him might make him more efficient. He won't have to carry as heavy a load."
"Evan Mobley has got big shoes to fill. Onyeka [Okongwu] was one of the best freshmen in the conference; he's a top-10 pick. Mobley is as ballyhooed as anybody. But the thing Onyeka brought was a physicality, a toughness. He was a machine offensively and defensively. Mobley is very, very skilled. But is he going to have that same physicality? That's going to be a big key. That transition can be tough sometimes. We had three freshman bigs in the league last year, and they made it look easy."