As the countdown continues to the start of the 2020-21 college basketball season on Nov. 25, ESPN.com's panel of experts is making its predictions for all of the nation's top leagues. After looking at the SEC, Big 12, Pac-12, Big East, American Athletic Conference and the nation's top mid-majors, we move to the Big Ten, arguably the best top-to-bottom league in America and one trying to end a two-decade national championship drought in 2020-21.
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Big Ten 2020-21 superlatives
Player of the Year
Medcalf: Luka Garza, Iowa
Borzello: Luka Garza, Iowa
Gasaway: Luka Garza, Iowa
Lunardi: Luka Garza, Iowa
Newcomer of the Year
Medcalf: Seth Towns, Ohio State
Borzello: Joey Hauser, Michigan State
Gasaway: Joey Hauser, Michigan State
Lunardi: Joey Hauser, Michigan State
Big Ten 2020-21 writer roundtable
Big Ten fans love to point out the league's top-to-bottom strength, and did so with ample evidence during a 2019-20 season that saw 12 of the league's 14 teams contend for NCAA bids. Critics, meanwhile, are quick to note the league's lack of a national title since Michigan State won it in 2000. You see any national title contenders in the B1G in 2020-21? Is it fair to knock the conference on this basis?
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: The criticism is fair. The Big Ten is usually one of the best leagues in the country and it takes pride in its perennial status at or near the top of the pound-for-pound rankings. Coaches in the league love to promote the league's "gantlet." But the regular season prowess won't speak to the masses without a national title. And that hasn't happened in two decades.
Since 2010, the Big Ten has produced 27 first-round NBA picks. During that same span, Kentucky has had 29 under John Calipari. The perception is that the Big Ten talent pool has not been strong enough to consistently field a contender that can win a title, although the league has had three representatives in national title games since 2010 and this season could change that narrative. I think Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin all have a shot at the national championship in this odd season, especially when the powerhouses in the field don't seem to have the knockout power they've enjoyed in past years.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: I don't know if it's fair to really crush the Big Ten about it. It hasn't had a national champion in 20 years, but it's not like it has been completely out of the mix in recent years. The league had a Final Four team in 2019, the runner-up in 2018, two Final Four teams in 2015, another Final Four team in 2014, 2013 and 2012. It is fair to say it rarely has a team sitting at No. 1 all season long, but the conference has had legitimate Final Four and title contenders every year but 2017. I think we're headed for the same discussion this season. There are three legitimate top-eight teams in the country from the league, so while nobody is in that Baylor-Villanova-Gonzaga triumvirate, the Big Ten will undoubtedly be represented in the national conversation.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: I see any number of Big Ten teams that could contend for a national title in 2021, by which I more specifically mean the nationally top-ranked likes of Baylor, Gonzaga and Villanova, while great, may yet be vanquished by an upstart rival. That team could come from the stacked top half of a tough Big Ten, who knows. As for criticism of the league's title drought, of course it's fair. The Big Ten's sent no fewer than seven teams to the national title game since 2000, only to go 0-7 for its troubles. That's a slump, though, to be sure, it's no worse than the Pac-12's 0-2 mark since Arizona won it all in 1997.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: It is a reasonably fair knock, given the volume of tournament bids (112, 5.89 per year) and the number of Final Four appearances (19 in 19 years) the conference has produced since its last title. The flip side is that there are no guarantees that deep in the tournament, when most matchups are essentially coin flips. Having said that, the 2021 season provides an enormous chance for a Big Ten breakthrough. First, as mentioned, there are no elite teams to dominate the likely bracket. Second, the league will almost certainly have the most teams in the field. And, finally, third, at least five members -- Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State -- project as second-weekend teams. That's an awfully good place to start.
The Big Ten seems to have more perceived 'teams on the rise' (Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Rutgers, to name a few) than any league in America. Which of these risers do you think we'll ultimately spend the most time this season talking about? Which team or teams from the Big Ten do you see as the biggest 'faller' candidate(s)?
Borzello: I think we're going to spend a lot of time talking about Iowa and the Hawkeyes' clear-cut Wooden Award favorite, Luka Garza. If they figure it out on the defensive end, they're going to be a top-five team for long stretches. That said, Illinois might be my pick to make the deepest run of any team in the league, given the Fighting Illini's balance -- not only in terms of offense and defense, but in terms of inside-outside too. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn are known commodities, but freshman Adam Miller is a star.
On the other hand, Maryland will probably fall the furthest. Penn State might finish below them in the standings, but the Terrapins are going to go from a co-champion to a team fighting just to make the NCAA tournament. Much will depend on how Mark Turgeon can replace Jalen Smith and Anthony Cowan.
Lunardi: Iowa and Illinois have the most sizzle, but Wisconsin and Rutgers may have more steak given their defensive toughness. Ultimately, I think Wisconsin emerges (again) at the top of the conference. How quickly we forget the Badgers were the Big Ten's top seed a year ago. At the other end of town, I agree with Jeff that Maryland could be looking at the steepest decline. Arguably no Big Ten program lost a greater opportunity with the cancellation of the 2020 tournament.
Gasaway: I'm sounding like a broken record here, but we need to stop marveling at how far the Rutgers program has come and start appreciating how good the actual team might be this season. Steve Pikiell is bringing back most of the key players (Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker, Myles Johnson, et al.) from a team that was about to make the NCAA tournament. The Scarlet Knights came fairly close to having the Big Ten's best per-possession defense in league play last year. These guys are going to be tough.
Medcalf: Having a head coach resign following an investigation a month before the season while also losing more than 33 points per game after a 21-win season seems like the perfect formula for a collapse. Look for Penn State to suffer the greatest fall this season.
I agree that we'll most likely focus on Iowa among the rising teams. It's not just Luka Garza and what might be the most lopsided Wooden Award race in recent memory. It's also the history attached to this season. Last season marked 40 years since Iowa's last Final Four run and the Hawkeyes haven't won the Big Ten title since 1979. The Hawkeyes are competing to achieve things that haven't been done in a generation. That coupled with the attention on Garza will amplify the buzz around the program.
We've spent the preseason with a photo of Iowa's Luka Garza adorning our ESPN college basketball preview, so let's talk about him already. Who is the player from the college basketball past that Garza most evokes for you? Which Big Ten player will win conference player of the year honors if Garza somehow doesn't?
Gasaway: I fear I'll lose points for not going back into the distant past, but Garza does remind me a bit of North Carolina's Luke Maye. Both are featured scorers, both could fill it up from either side of the arc, yet both were especially effective in the paint. Finally -- how can one put this delicately -- both guys get the job done without necessarily recording dunks that go viral or leaping over opponents in a single bound.
Make no mistake, Garza is a remarkable combination of volume and efficiency. If for some reason he does fall short this season, perhaps we could be looking at Minnesota's Marcus Carr as Big Ten POY. The junior has shown no shortage of potential as a scoring point guard, and he should get plenty of touches with the Golden Gophers this season.
Borzello: Gasaway stole mine! Well, he wrote it first, so I guess I stole his. But I took a look at Ken Pomeroy's statistical similarities, and Luke Maye really did stand out as a good comp. Garza is taller, of course, but both are really good inside the paint and consistently improved their ability to make shots from the outside during their college career. Maye took 47 3-pointers total his first two seasons with the Tar Heels, but took 116 as a junior and 125 as a senior. Garza has steadily increased his perimeter production, making a career-best 35.8% of his caterer-high 109 3-point attempts last season. Expect that number to increase even more this season.
Medcalf: You'd have to drive about five hours north of Iowa's campus to find Roseville, Minnesota, hometown of Mike Muscala, the NBA veteran who has found a role at the next level. As a junior at Bucknell, Muscala averaged 17.0 PPG and made 35% of his 3-pointers and 51% of his shots inside the arc as a 6-10 forward. He has now made about $17 million through seven seasons in the NBA, where he's made 37% of his 3-pointers throughout his career. Garza has a higher ceiling and he's more skilled. But like Muscala, he'll be searching for a similar role, I think, at the next level, and Muscala could be that model for him.
I'll take Ron Harper Jr. as the player to win the award if Garza doesn't. He could be a star for a program on the rise.
Lunardi: There aren't any easy comps for Garza, who is unique in a Larry Bird kind of way. The player who most comes to mind for me is Creighton's Doug McDermott. Both guys just get buckets, and it doesn't matter how. And neither would be confused with Shane Battier at the defensive end.
Anonymous coaches size up the Big Ten
Jeff Borzello spoke to Big Ten coaches about their expectations for the conference in 2020-21.
"Last year it was the best league in the country and it wasn't even close. From top to bottom. This year, all 14 teams are going into the season with at least some type of realistic goal of making the NCAA tournament. I don't think any other league in the country can say that."
"I think that Illinois is the best team because they have the best players, to be honest. Luka Garza is obviously going to vie for Player of the Year honors again, but Illinois has got a lot of firepower returning to that team. And then you add Adam Miller, that just helps. You can't keep Ayo [Dosunmu] from getting to the rim. You've got those big bodies settings those screens, he's so fast and slippery getting downhill, he's almost unstoppable. If his shooting has improved like they're [suggesting], then man, he's got a chance to be fantastic."
"Can Illinois eliminate all the distractions? There's probably three guys on the team who expect to be lottery picks after this year. It can be a bad thing. Is there an overall willingness to sacrifice? But they have the most talent in the league."
"I would say Wisconsin is the best team because I think they're the most trustworthy of the bunch. They're the group that did it last year, they shared the Big Ten title last year. And I think they have the least amount of egos of the three. After Kobe King transferred, they really came together as a team. Nobody played like they were concerned with NBA draft status. That's the team that has the best chance of eliminating the outside noise and distractions, and win a Big Ten title as a collective effort."
"I can't decide on Wisconsin. I'm just OK on their talent and I'm just OK on them being able to replicate it. But you certainly can't ignore that they were fabulous toward the end of the year. They added the Johnny Davis kid, everyone I've spoken to said he can really score the ball. If he can score it as well as they say, they've got a chance to be pretty good. I just don't know if I'm 100% sold on them. It seemed to me they just played together and played more for one another. They were very dysfunctional earlier in the season, then Kobe King quits, obviously they were in the midst of some turmoil. But later in the year, they were playing like the Wisconsin teams of old. There weren't many egos."
"Unless there's a culture shift, I think Iowa is going to be in the same boat once again. They certainly have enough athleticism and talent and size to be a good defensive team, but until they want to do it or want to change, they're going to end up with the same results."
"I don't remember the last time Iowa was good defensively. Last three years, they were 14th, 13th and 12th in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency. I don't know what's changing. And as impactful and as much respect as I have for Luka Garza, can he do it again? It's hard. He's a terrific player, but can he have a better year than he did last year?"
"I think Michigan State is going to be fine. I'd never bet against [Tom] Izzo. Rocket Watts is going to take a big step for them this year. He can really score the ball. I don't know if he's necessarily a point guard, but you've got to guard him out to 28 feet at all times. He can score it in multiple ways."
"Until Tom Izzo's not a top-20 team in the country, it's safe to pick them in the top 20. Rocket is talented, his role is going to be a lot bigger. Izzo's gotta let him play and have more freedom this year. He's not going to have nearly as short a leash as last year."
"I really like the pieces Rutgers has returning. They're going to be right there at the top or top of the middle, for sure, because they have a lot of experience and they have a lot of scoring returning. And they added another big guy, which should help them. This league is so hard to win on the road. But because they have so much experience returning, they absolutely will get better on the road this year."
"I like [Michigan's Isaiah] Livers. I think he's a definite all-league player. He's as versatile as anyone in the league, besides Garza, maybe including Garza. They had a group last year that was used to winning, used to playing a certain way. Credit to their staff, they didn't try to reinvent the wheel and play a different way. For the most part, it worked out for them. It will be harder this year with different personnel ... how they decide to play, how they put the puzzle together."
"Guard play is going to be huge for [Indiana]. Can they get consistent and upper-level Big Ten guard play night in and night out, on both ends of the floor? And perimeter shooting. Can the rest of the guys spread the floor enough to get Trayce [Jackson-Davis] some room to operate?"
"When you lose the Wesson brothers, they did so much for Ohio State. The amount of experience they had. Everyone wants to talk about Kaleb Wesson, losing him is a big deal, but Andre ended up being an offensive threat, a multidimensional player on both ends of the floor. I like their guards. CJ Walker and Duane Washington are veteran guards who played a lot of minutes. Kyle Young is a good Big Ten frontcourt player. You wonder about their depth and they also won't have the firepower they did the last two years."
"I'm gonna go with Minnesota [as the team to make a jump]. Gabe Kalscheur had a disappointing year, but I think he'll bounce back. He's one of the elite perimeter shooters in the league, has good size. [Marcus] Carr is an all-league type of guard. Liam Robbins is a high-major Big Ten frontcourt player, he'll lessen the blow of losing Daniel Oturu."
"Purdue is going to be young. They're banged up, Eric Hunter's hurt. You win with older teams in this league typically, and that's been one of their strengths over the years."