When you're looking at matchups for your fantasy players, there aren't many resources that focus strictly on fantasy hockey from a scheduling perspective.
Standings rarely reflect fantasy potential, and even digging into overall "against" metrics doesn't paint a clear picture. In fantasy hockey, we typically only target a small percentage of the active players for our rosters, so looking at the global opponent data brings in a lot of noise. Any statistics accrued by the bottom half of a depth chart are mostly irrelevant for fantasy hockey.
Only goaltenders truly collect opposing statistics from puck drop to final whistle.
We can see this when we aggregate on opposing fantasy statistics for each team. Using all game logs from this season makes the averages low and mushy. For example, forwards average the most fantasy points overall against the Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators, both tied at 1.56 fantasy points per game (FPPG), and the fewest against the Winnipeg Jets and Chicago Blackhawks at 1.17 FPPG.
But you aren't starting a single forward on your fantasy roster that has an FPPG that low. That's because, again, we are aggregating with all available forwards. Fourth-line wingers contribute to these numbers.
We could still accept the overall premise and consider the matter settled but we could get a better sense of the situation by being more selective with the data we use.
Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Drops
If we take all available game logs, assign rough depth-chart tiers based on even-strength ice time, and then aggregate only on top-six forwards, a different picture emerges. When it comes to forwards that are on the first or second line, the Predators still lead the pack at 2.08 FPPG, but the Canucks, who were tied with them for all forwards, allow the 11th-most fantasy points when we only consider top-six forwards.
At the low end of the spectrum, the Buffalo Sabres actually allow the fewest fantasy points to opposing top-six forwards at 1.42 FPPG. That is a clear example of why the NHL standings or the typical global stats aren't helpful for matchup consideration. The Sabres are near the bottom of the standings, allow plenty of goals and plenty of shots, yet top forwards don't perform as well against them.
We can do the same with defense. Taking only the top two defenders in even-strength ice time and looking at how they perform against each opponent. When using just the top pairing, the Minnesota Wild allow the most fantasy points at 2.17 FPPG, while the Pittsburgh Penguins allow the fewest at 1.14 FPPG.
Goaltenders are a lot simpler. Since they collect fantasy points for every moment, we don't need to cull for consideration of opposing fantasy points. The range of outcomes is much more extreme, given the ability for goaltenders to accumulate negative points. We range from the Calgary Flames allowing 4.53 FPPG to opposing goaltenders, all the way to the Montreal Canadiens punishing them with a negative average value of -1.50 FPPG.
Strip away the fourth-liners and third-pair defenders, and you start to see who's really soft for fantasy production. Here's how every team rates when we look only at top-six forwards, top-pair defenders and opposing goaltenders.
Goalie notes
Here's this week's selection of goaltending snapshots, showing crease shares, fantasy production, and key notes where relevant.
Carolina Hurricanes in 15 games (four last week):
Frederik Andersen (crease share season/week: 53.7%/25.1%, fantasy points season/week: 11.6/2.2, 28.8% available, 1.43 FPP60)
Brandon Bussi (crease share season/week: 33.1%/25.1%, fantasy points season/week: 12.8/-0.8, 99.1% available, 2.56 FPP60)
Pyotr Kochetkov (crease share season/week: 13.2%/49.8%, fantasy points season/week: 14.0/14.0, 80.8% available, 7.06 FPP60)
As mentioned in this week's pickups column, Kochetkov jumped out to the lead in fantasy points in the Hurricanes crease after a shutout win in his debut. The Canes won't carry three goaltenders for long, so expect it to settle into an Andersen-Kochetkov tandem. Given the team's context, both can be worthy of roster spots if they split time evenly.
Chicago Blackhawks in 16 games (four last week):
Spencer Knight (crease share season/week: 69.3%/50.6%, fantasy points season/week: 42.6/22.2, 30.8% available, 3.82 FPP60)
Arvid Soderblom (crease share season/week: 30.7%/49.4%, fantasy points season/week: 10.4/9.2, 99.7% available, 2.1 FPP60)
Knight currently leads all goaltenders in total fantasy points. All of them. While sustaining that pace will be tough -- and I share those concerns -- it's encouraging that Soderblom also ranks among the top-20 in FPP60. When both goalies are performing this well, there's reason to believe the success can continue.
Minnesota Wild in 17 games (four last week):
Filip Gustavsson (crease share season/week: 69.7%/50.3%, fantasy points season/week: 9.8/3.0, 10.0% available, 0.82 FPP60)
Jesper Wallstedt (crease share season/week: 30.3%/49.7%, fantasy points season/week: 17.0/19.2, 96.5% available, 3.28 FPP60)
We'll need to see more from Wallstedt before deciding whether he can actually push for a bigger crease share, but at this rate, that might take care of itself.
New Jersey Devils in 16 games (three last week):
Jake Allen (crease share season/week: 54.6%/35.4%, fantasy points season/week: 26.4/8.6, 74.7% available, 3.02 FPP60)
Jacob Markstrom (crease share season/week: 39.2%/64.6%, fantasy points season/week: 1.6/0.4, 44.6% available, 0.25 FPP60)
Nico Daws (crease share season/week: 6.2%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 7.8/DNP, 99.5% available, 7.8 FPP60)
If I'm looking for a buy-low goaltender in trade, Markstrom is one of my first targets. Allen's early fantasy edge is a timing quirk with Markstrom's early injury, not a trend. The Devils sit near the top of the standings, and Markstrom is going to keep getting the lion's share of starts. His fantasy returns should meet -- and surpass -- those of his crease-mates sooner rather than later.
New York Islanders in 16 games (four last week):
Ilya Sorokin (crease share season/week: 68.9%/75.6%, fantasy points season/week: 17.6/20.0, 28.5% available, 1.59 FPP60)
David Rittich (crease share season/week: 31.1%/24.4%, fantasy points season/week: 4.0/-5.8, 98.9% available, 0.8 FPP60)
Sorokin's slow start last season lasted a few months, but it looks like that slump may already be over just a month into this season. He shouldn't be available in so many leagues.
Power-play notes
Artyom Levshunov, D, Chicago Blackhawks (available in 95.4%): This was covered extensively in this week's pickup column, but it's worth emphasizing again: Levshunov has taken over the Hawks' power play, and the unit has thrived with him at the point. In three games, the top unit posted five goals in 5:50, with almost double the shot attempt rate compared to when Sam Rinzel was quarterbacking.
Corey Perry, RW, Los Angeles Kings (available in 76.1%): Replacing Andrei Kuzmenko on the Kings' five-forward power-play unit, Perry hasn't increased shot volume but he has boosted goal production. With Kuzmenko, the unit had three goals in 23:06; with Perry, it has three goals in 11:47 so far.
Jared Spurgeon, D, Minnesota Wild (available in 52.0%): The Wild struggled to replicate early success with Zeev Buium, but they've settled in with Spurgeon on the point. His fantasy returns don't yet justify a roster spot, but given his deployment and power-play access, a quick hot streak could put him back on the radar in no time.
Will Cuylle, LW, New York Rangers (available in 33.6%): How do we define the "worst" power play? Time on ice alone isn't always helpful -- the more successful a unit is, the less time it spends on the ice, since a goal ends the power play. But when a unit struggles, time becomes a useful indicator. The Rangers' unit with Lafreniere, Mika Zibanejad, J.T. Miller, Artemi Panarin, and Adam Fox spent the second-most time on ice together at 44:06, yet recorded the second-lowest goals rate of any unit with at least 20 minutes. Cuylle has taken over for Lafreniere, and the unit already looks noticeably better.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Toronto Maple Leafs (available in 81.5%): The Leafs are trying Ekman-Larsson in place of Morgan Rielly. The unit has just 10:50 of total power-play time so far, but it's already produced two goals. For context, the same unit with Rielly had three goals in 23:46.
Droppables
Matt Coronato, RW, Calgary Flames (rostered in 72.8%): I don't mean to pick on the Flames two weeks in a row, but Coronato -- like MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson on the point -- isn't living up to his potential. At this stage, he's a clear-cut drop; he doesn't have the historical value that Weegar and Andersson do. Remember, name recognition matters on the waiver wire: your ability to reacquire a player often depends on whether your league-mates pounce first. Despite being at the top of the Flames' depth chart, Coronato doesn't have enough established value to make him tempting to others, even with his 1.1 FPPG.