If you are a fantasy player, you know that making the right move down the stretch can be the difference between a playoff run and missing the postseason altogether. The hard part is figuring out which players will step up over the next two-plus months and which will fade.
If you have a big enough sample size, history can be an indicator. For most players, pre- and post-All-Star game stats are about the same, but there are a handful of forwards in the NHL who have noticeably performed at higher or lower rates coming out of the break.
Those players who typically see an uptick in production might be good trade targets ahead of your league's deadline, while those who slow down a bit in the season's final months could be tossed on the trading block if the right deal were to come along. However, some players discussed below might be poised to flip the narrative on their careers, indicated by different team situations and big changes in on-ice statistics.
Here is a look at ten players who have historically produced at a different level, for better or for worse, following the All-Star break, along with how to view them over the final few months.
Hot post-break performers
Ryan Kesler, C, Anaheim Ducks
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.59
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.67
The Ducks are finally getting healthy in time to make a push for the playoffs. Kesler has only played 13 games after hip surgery forced him to miss the first few months of the seasons. In that stretch, he's tallied six points and is only averaging 17:13 per game (down from over 20 minutes last season), but you can bet that the Ducks will lean harder on Kesler as he ramps up to full speed for the final 31 games.
Nikita Kucherov, RW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.86
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.95
At this point, Kucherov has a strong argument for the Hart Trophy. He's leading the NHL in points with 63 in 49 games and even-strength goals with 24. It would be pretty hard to top his first-half performance, especially considering Kucherov's even-strength shooting percentage is 19.2 percent (his previous high was 12.8 percent). But even if his production slows to some extent, the Lightning star winger is very likely to continue ripping shots past opposing goalies at an exceptional rate.
The Russian has 43 career goals in 94 post-break games, and he has seen an increase in ice time, averaging 46 seconds more per game after the break over his career.
Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.69
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.96
The Jets will soon be getting Scheifele back in the lineup from an injury, and it couldn't come at a better time as they fight for playoff position in the loaded Central Division. In 97 post-All-Star game contests, the Jets' No. 1 center has recorded 94 points. Prior to his injury, he scored 15 goals and 23 assists in 38 games in a follow up to his breakout 82-point 2016-17 season, making it clear Winnipeg has its franchise center. Additionally, Scheifele's second-half numbers have traditionally seen an increase in shooting percentage and ice time.
Artemi Panarin, C/LW, Columbus Blue Jackets
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.84
Career post-All-Star points per game: 1.05
Columbus hasn't quite gotten the production out of Panarin that the Chicago Blackhawks received over the last two seasons, but he could be in for a big stretch run. Not only does the 26-year-old winger have an impressive 61 points in 58 games after the break, he's also shooting just 8.8 percent this year. Over the last two seasons, he scored on 15.7 percent of his shots -- and over his career, he sees an increase of 12.0 percent to 17.9 following the All-Star Game.
Sean Monahan, C, Calgary Flames
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.62
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.96
Monahan hasn't waited until the second half of the season to pick up steam this year. He's currently posting career highs in points per game (0.90) and shots on goal per game (2.6). The gifted scorer could be a candidate to buck his career trend, though. Monahan is sporting the highest shooting percentage of his career at 17.7 percent and highest on-ice shooting percentage (11.2 percent) of his first five years. That doesn't mean he's worth dealing to the highest bidder. The Flames are dominating the shot counter with a 53.9 Corsi percentage with Monahan on the ice, so he will still get plenty of opportunities to put up points.
One additional interesting note on Monahan: His plus/minus is minus-19 over his career before the break, but it booms to plus-13 in the second half. He is currently at plus-13 this season, so there's a chance it grows even more.
Cold post-break performers
Claude Giroux, C/LW, Philadelphia Flyers
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.93
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.80
The Flyers' star has played in a big sample of post-break hockey games (199) and comes out with a shooting percentage that is 2.9 percent lower than before the break. Off to a blazing start to the year with 57 points in 49 games, he's a candidate to see a dip over the next few months.
Over the last three seasons, Giroux hasn't topped a 9.1 percent shooting percentage, but he's scoring on 13.7 percent of shots this season. His on-ice shooting percentage is also currently a career high.
Matt Duchene, C, Ottawa Senators
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.76
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.57
Here's a crazy stat: In 143 games following the All-Star break, Duchene has only scored three power-play goals in his career. Three. It's hard to see him improving those numbers this year on a struggling Senators team that very well could have a fire sale at the trade deadline. The Sens rank 25th in goals and 29th on the power play.
Taylor Hall, LW, New Jersey Devils
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.92
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.69
It's still hard to believe the Edmonton Oilers traded Hall, who has 48 points in 43 games this season, a career high in points per game. The former No. 1 overall pick has a shooting percentage close to his career average, a career-best shot rate and a competitive team around him. There are no signs that he will suffer a similar second-half slip in production to his years in Edmonton.
James Neal, LW/RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.75
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.61
At the beginning of the year, it appeared Neal would be a hot ticket at the trade deadline. Now Vegas will certainly keep him, but the Golden Knights should be nervous about a cold streak. Formerly of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Nashville Predators, the winger has been hot lately, boosting his shooting percentage to a career high. However, Neal will benefit from a team that's dominating the shot counter and creating a ton of chances. Vegas has a 53.9 Corsi percentage with Neal on the ice.
Phil Kessel, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins
Career pre-All-Star points per game: 0.86
Career post-All-Star points per game: 0.67
For a player with such a large sample size, the significance of his drop off following the All-Star game is surprising. His shooting percentage drops from 11.7 to 8.2 percent, a huge gap for 265 post-break contests. It's plausible that his former team's frustration stemmed from late-season struggles. Still, the Penguins shouldn't be too worried. In the last two playoffs, he's totaled 45 points in 49 games. That's far more important.