Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't assume anything in the Chiefs' RB situation
Andy Reid has won 71% of his regular-season games in 12 years as head coach of the Chiefs, and of course, he has three Super Bowl rings. Reid knows what he is doing, and by the end of the weekend we should all know what he is doing with his running backs now that starter Isiah Pacheco is out until probably November with a fractured right fibula (and subsequent surgery).
Three Chiefs are among the top five running backs on the most-added list this week. Relatively unknown rookie Carson Steele is the hot name to add, since he is new and hasn't failed yet at the NFL level. Fantasy managers love players like this, even if there is little guarantee of production. Then there is veteran Kareem Hunt, who once was great but didn't look so great last season in Cleveland averaging 3.0 yards per rush and barely catching passes.
Samaje Perine is my choice. Perine is proven and he fits Kansas City's style like Jerick McKinnon did in 2022. Only 14 running backs caught 50 passes last season. Some of the biggest names achieved this. Surprise, Perine did this for the Broncos! Reid can trust him, and I bet we see Patrick Mahomes throwing a lot more on traditional running downs, with safer, shorter passes to Perine, forgotten TE Travis Kelce (who will start getting his numbers this week) and others.
We should not assume Steele, undrafted after a season at UCLA and two at Ball State, controls the volume and the most value in this backfield. It feels like a bit of a reach for a coach who has been here before and shared the wealth. Steele is built more like a fullback or lead blocker, which is fine, but he caught only 58 passes in 37 college games, and last week against the Bengals, he lost a fumble. OK, so Pacheco lost fumbles, too, but it is tough to see anyone handling the high volume Pacheco did.
In fact, Pacheco handling such a major workload was more of an anomaly. In Reid's 11 completed seasons in K.C., two players have rushed for more than 1,000 yards. Hunt did so in 2017, and so did Jamaal Charles in Reid's first two seasons. Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West had seasons leading the Chiefs in rushing since then. Darrel Williams did it in 2021, pre-Pacheco, with 558 yards. I think Perine is the Chiefs running back to add. He caught passes last season. He will do so again. But I can't activate him -- or any Chiefs RB -- this week against the Falcons because anything is possible.
Do expect improvement from the Panthers' offense
Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard and WRs Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen had little chance for success with overwhelmed second-year QB Bryce Young running the offense. Veteran Andy Dalton is at least competent, and in this case, competence is everything. Dalton might not look like Raiders fill-in QB Gardner Minshew, but for fantasy and statistical purposes, expect something similar. It's a shame, because Young has talent, but for whatever reasons -- and there are plenty of them -- it just isn't working.
The Panthers have enough talent to compete. They might not win more than a few games, but Dalton can throw the football quickly and reasonably accurately to his receivers. It aids them; it aids the competent Hubbard. You are not adding Dalton in ESPN standard leagues -- well, you shouldn't be -- but you shouldn't be cutting other Panthers ... and you are.
Johnson and Thielen are capable veterans who just need someone to find them when they are open. Dalton can do this. He certainly played well enough for the 2022 Saints, when he was nearly a top-20 fantasy QB in his 14 starts. RB Alvin Kamara was a solid RB2 that season. Rookie Chris Olave caught 72 passes for 1,042 receiving yards. Serviceable tight end Juwan Johnson scored seven touchdowns. Speedy Rashid Shaheed averaged 17.4 yards per catch (and look at him now). Dalton might not be a top-20 fantasy QB the rest of the season, but he gives his receivers a chance for success.
The most surprising name among dropped Panthers is rookie RB Jonathon Brooks. You knew he would miss at least four games when you drafted him, as the Panthers made it quite clear there was no reason to rush the first running back selected in the draft back from major knee surgery. After all, he tore his right ACL last November. Have some patience. OK, so you need your IR slot for others you drafted earlier. I get it, but Brooks could return sooner. He might not be an immediate statistical superstar, but he should matter in a few weeks.
Don't expect Justin Fields to save your fantasy team
Saints surprise Derek Carr and underrated Buccaneer Baker Mayfield are the lone quarterbacks being added in more ESPN standard leagues than temporary Steelers starter Justin Fields. It once made sense to add the potentially dynamic Fields, as he rushed for a record 1,143 yards for the 2022 Bears, and I wrote over the summer how it would be better for fantasy managers if Fields won the job. He can do things that few quarterbacks -- and certainly not Russell Wilson anymore -- can do. He has QB1 potential. He's already done it!
The problem is, it has become clear he will not be doing those fun running things for the current Steelers. Coach Mike Tomlin is a smart one. He knows he has the defense, depth, the running backs, he has a plan. That plan includes Fields directing the offense and avoiding turnovers. So far, in two wins, Fields has a pair of wins and nary a turnover, good for a high passer rating. However, he has added little for fantasy managers, with only 11 points in each game. The Steelers don't want to take chances. We do in fantasy, but we should add Sam Darnold or Geno Smith instead. At least their teams let them do good stuff, and good stuff they are doing.
Fields started 38 games for the Bears, tossing 30 interceptions and losing 11 fumbles (27 other fumbles he or his team recovered). It's a lot, he hasn't really changed, and it seems likely that Fields will eventually fumble his way to the bench when Wilson (calf) returns to enough health, so be on the lookout in superflex formats, where every starting QB matters. It won't be this week, but it should happen, and then we can report that Wilson won't be helping your fantasy team so much, either.
Put Fields on a bad team, let him do whatever he wants and yeah, we could have a QB1 option. Put Fields on the Steelers and don't let him do anything and we have the No. 22 fantasy QB, roughly tied with the Giants' Daniel Jones, whom nobody wants. Yeah, his team doesn't want him doing much, either.
Don't second-guess drafting Christian McCaffrey first
Look, everyone wanted to believe that McCaffrey, who played in 16 games over a recent three-year span, was suddenly durable and trustworthy again, as if one 16-game season and monster fantasy statistics implied that there was nothing to worry about. Nobody knew this was going to happen. The 49ers were not exactly forthcoming about McCaffrey's calf injury in early August -- or even two weeks ago -- and although they acted surprised that they eventually had to place their star running back on injured reserve, we can be skeptical. Perhaps McCaffrey returns for Halloween weekend and manages to stay healthy enough to play the second half of the season, but I sure would not be trading for him as if he were a top-10 running back. I would trade for Jordan Mason, though.
The more emotional point is McCaffrey was a worthy No. 1 overall fantasy pick based on the information we thought we knew and clearly what we wanted to believe. I took him in a league. I regret it, obviously, but look at who else went in Round 1. Who should have gone No. 1? Don't say Saints RB Alvin Kamara. Many ranked Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill No. 2, and my hand is raised there, but now he has a backup QB throwing his way for nobody knows how long. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson has a 97-yard touchdown play and not much else. Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb makes sense now, though 30 other flex-eligible players boast more PPR points through two weeks. How about Jets RB Breece Hall?
If re-drafting today, I would go with Lamb (and he leads my rest-of-season rankings), but I sure would have preferred a later first-round pick (and subsequent earlier second-round choice) instead. After McCaffrey lapped the field in PPR points per game last season, he was the obvious choice, and there is no point worrying about it now.