Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!
Don't be surprised if ... Alvin Kamara is the lone Saints player we really love in fantasy
It must feel so good to be Saints QB Derek Carr right now. The Saints rolled over the vaunted Cowboys defense in their place Sunday, and Carr is the lone quarterback to surpass 20 fantasy points in each of the first two games of the young season. Fantasy managers mainly ignored Carr last season, but thanks to playing in all 17 games and avoiding turnovers, he was serviceable for our purposes, finishing 16th in quarterback scoring. Who knew? Well, many will add him this week, but we should be careful. Carr has thrown only 39 passes in two weeks (as WR Chris Olave managers might lament!). Despite the rare 1-yard TD run Sunday, Carr has little role running the football. He's directing the offense, mostly. New offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak wants it this way.
The ultra-motivated Kamara looks rejuvenated in this new offense, however, and his newfound efficiency and rushing volume is the key. Can it continue? Kamara has averaged 17.5 rushing attempts -- and only four targets (boo!) -- through two games. Last season, Kamara averaged 13.8 rushing attempts and 6.6 targets in his 13 games. He caught 75 passes, but he did little with them (6.2 yards per catch), and many believed the Saints would look elsewhere -- the currently injured Kendre Miller, perhaps -- for an early-down back.
It is early and one game was a walkover versus a terrible Panthers squad, but if the Saints can keep Kamara busy and, perhaps more importantly, healthy, he has top-five RB fantasy potential. Look, Kamara is playing for a contract extension, and we shouldn't underestimate -- especially in this sport -- the role money plays in keeping players of his ilk not only productive, but surprisingly healthy. Believe in Kamara over his teammates this season.
Don't be surprised if ... things really fall apart for the Rams
It is one thing for QB Matthew Stafford to lose WR Puka Nacua, coming off a 1,486-yard season as a rookie, to a knee injury for at least the next six weeks. It is another thing to lose Cooper Kupp to an ankle injury, and look who comes to town in Week 3: the rival 49ers. The Rams should fall to 0-3. Stafford has little chance behind this injury-ravaged offensive line, throwing to the likes of Demarcus Robinson, Tyler Johnson and Tutu Atwell. Stafford is rostered in 48.8% of ESPN standard leagues, but the receivers and RB Kyren Williams are far more, if not universally, popular.
Williams has scored a solid but perhaps misleading 29.6 PPR points in the first two weeks, mainly thanks to a pair of short rushing touchdowns, but we cannot count on those moving forward, especially if more blowout losses are pending, and if the Rams decide to "rebuild" and give rookie Blake Corum more chances. Williams averaged only 2.8 yards per carry in the Week 1 loss at Detroit, and 2.1 YPC in the blowout loss to the Cardinals. The current Rams defense, sans retired Aaron Donald, looked awful against the Cardinals, perhaps teeing up more trouble there, and defensive trouble is rarely good for the team's running backs.
Of course, the Rams drafted Corum in Round 3 for a reason, though he is barely bigger than the similarly diminutive Williams. A timeshare wouldn't please fantasy managers, and nobody in fantasy wants to see Williams returning punts, either. What an odd tangent for a top-10 running back. Perhaps this is indicative of the team not seeing him as a long-term fit as a three-down running back. Bottom line is if the Rams are sputtering along at 2-5 by Halloween, perhaps major changes are coming (quarterback, running back, even at coach), and fantasy managers might not like them.
Don't be surprised if ... Brock Bowers leads all tight ends in fantasy scoring
This really isn't so bold, as the rookie from Georgia already leads the position with 15 catches, 17 targets and 156 receiving yards through two weeks. He is just a shade behind the Ravens' Isaiah Likely in PPR points (30.7 to 30.6). Bowers, the No. 13 pick in the NFL draft, was supposed to be relevant initially, perhaps the best prospect at the position since the Falcons chose Kyle Pitts fourth overall in 2021. Pitts caught 68 passes for 1,026 yards and one touchdown as a rookie.
Bowers is on pace for 127 receptions and 1,326 yards -- and nary a score. He's not reaching those grand heights, but Raiders QB Gardner Minshew has targeted Bowers and future Hall of Famer Davante Adams 35 times in his 71 pass attempts. Do the math -- that is incredibly telling. Minshew is not looking anywhere else, and probably will not need to do so in Week 3 against the Panthers.
Bowers is off to a great start, and perhaps a sustainable one. He is rostered in 87% of leagues, and that number will rise this week. Might Bowers end up as fantasy's top tight end, over Chiefs star Travis Kelce (8 PPR points so far!), defending fantasy TE scoring champ Sam LaPorta of the Lions or intriguing Cardinal Trey McBride? Stick with those established tight ends, of course, but Bowers might already be in their lofty class.
Don't be surprised if ... Justin Tucker is not a top-10 fantasy kicker
Everyone loves this fellow, but hey, hear me out. Tucker has not only missed a makeable 50-yard field goal attempt in each of the first two games, but he is 1-for-7 on 50-yarders since the start of last season. It might not seem like much, but 30 other kickers hit more than one 50-yarder last season. The Texans' Ka'imi Fairbairn has already hit six 50-yard field goals in two games this season! Incredibly, NFL kickers are 35-for-39 on 50-yard attempts this season, with Tucker missing two of the four.
OK, so does this matter? Tucker, 34, remains relevant, and who cares how old a kicker is? Well, let's put it this way: When we invest in a kicker, and only do so because the rules of fantasy football demand this, most of us dump him during his bye week for someone else who will be in action that week. Tucker used to be an exception to this rule for most fantasy managers. They'd just find a spot to bench him, keep him around. Why do that now? The Cowboys' Brandon Aubrey is special. He led all kickers in fantasy points last season, with 180. Second place was 155 points. It is Aubrey, who is 13-for-13 on 50-yard field goals in his 19 games, and everyone else. Tucker is part of "everyone else."
The point is Tucker is no longer a difference-maker on long kicks, and it's not a new thing. After Aubrey, 13 kickers scored 140-155 fantasy points last season, a negligible difference of less than one point per game. They were all the same. Tucker is not so much more valuable or special, for fantasy purposes, than available options such as the Saints' Blake Grupe, the Buccaneers' Chase McLaughlin or about 15 other kickers. The Ravens aren't on bye until Week 14, but when it happens, move on. Perhaps you can trade Tucker. Aubrey is the only kicker worth keeping through the bye (Week 7 for Dallas), and even then, it just feels strange doing so.