Texas sits at No. 10 with a 7-2 record and the math is brutally clear: a third loss keeps the playoff dream flickering, but a fourth loss sniffs it out completely.
The road doesn't ease up. Texas first has to walk into Athens to face No. 5 Georgia, sitting at 8-1 and clawing toward a SEC title shot, before closing with No. 3 Texas A&M.
Georgia beat Texas twice last season, so for the Longhorns this one feels less like a showdown and more like a "here we go again."
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 11 Texas Longhorns at No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Georgia -6.5
Money line: Georgia (-210), Texas (+180)
Over/Under: 48.5 (O -110, U -110)
Is Texas...back?
No. And I say that as someone who wants to believe the answer is "yes."
The last two weeks have been fun, but they've also been misleading. If you strip away the emotion and look at the data points that matter, then the picture gets real ... real fast.
The Longhorns offense hasn't "come alive". It only looks that way because the last two opponents made it easy to believe something changed. Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are bottom half defenses with soft coverages, inconsistent pressure and poor tackling. Any offense with talented receivers should carve them up. If Texas hadn't looked good, that would have been the real story but beating weaker units through busted coverages and wide-open middle-field windows doesn't mean the system suddenly works.
Even Texas' pass protection didn't get better. The grades were 62.2 against Mississippi State and 70.0 against Vanderbilt, neither of which is elite but simply good enough. Offensively, Texas scored 24 points in the fourth quarter against Mississippi State because the Bulldogs ran out of gas. And the Commodores spent the entire game chasing a deficit and blowing assignments. Neither matchup produced drive-to-drive efficiency, improved early-down success or any true change on third down. The Longhorns did produce splash plays but let's not mistake that for reliability.
Even Manning's numbers need context. He had 53 passing attempts against Mississippi State. That is simply high-variance and unsustainable. Vandy's coverage busts created easy throws, free yards and inflated yards after the catch. The turnover-worthy plays were still there, but they were just hidden by the matchup.
Georgia isn't built like those defenses.
The Bulldogs tackle at an elite level, eliminate explosives with discipline and force everything underneath. And because the Texas rushing attack hasn't evolved, that limits its ceiling against a better defensive opponent. Against better defenses, you see that Texas is capable of producing field-stretching throws but not sustainably functional drives, and those issues definitely matter in Athens, where the Dawgs are 61-6 at home since 2021 -- the best home mark in college football.
Betting Consideration: Texas team total UNDER 21.5
This wager comes down to two truths that can cut straight through the noise. The first is Texas' biggest offensive problem isn't pressure, but a lack of consistency. The offense lives in volatility -- struggling on early downs, falling behind the chains -- and it lacks a reliable run game to create leverage.
In other words, Georgia doesn't need a pass rush to beat Texas.
Why? Because Texas beats themselves.
The Longhorns' red-zone execution is one of the weakest among teams in the top 25, and face some of the longest third-down distance in the FBS. Those are two problems that don't dissipate simply because Georgia lacks a pass rush. Pressure hits rhythm quarterbacks who slice you up in timing windows.
That's not Arch Manning. That's not the Texas offense. The passing game has big-play bursts but it's high variance, and inconsistent on timing-based concepts. When a defense forces you to stack methodical drives instead of gambling on downfield bombs, it exposes every crack. The Bulldogs are built for exactly that.
The second data point is Georgia's discipline. The Bulldogs tackle at an elite level, limit yards after contact and keep everything in front, eliminating chaos, which is where Texas thrives. Take away the busted coverages and free window downfield, then suddenly Texas shrinks.
Look at their worst offensive games against Ohio State, Florida and Kentucky. Those defenses didn't win with pressure, they won with structure, by forcing long drives, tight windows and no long gains. Texas can't string together eight, 10, 12 plays, and when they can't, they get bogged down and stall.
That's exactly the defensive style they're about to walk into, and that's a problem. Georgia's system neutralizes volatility, and Texas needs volatility to hit 22 points.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Texas is 0-4 ATS on the road this season, one of six FBS teams without an ATS win on the road.
Texas has four straight ATS and outright losses vs. AP Top-5 teams (0-3 since start of last season).
Georgia is 12-5 ATS vs. AP Top-10 teams over the last five seasons, the most cover wins in FBS over span.
Georgia is 8-15 ATS since the start of last season, 4th worst among Power 4 teams.