Through two weeks of the 2024 fantasy football season, one that is quickly being defined by injuries, there are surprise players emerging and some trends -- both positive and negative -- which could create some tough lineup decisions for managers.
But that's also very normal in the early stages of the season.
Remember, NFL teams go through their own transition period in September, with both personnel and scheme. So, while the early numbers may begin to tell a story, we have to look at the tape, too, because there's still so much to learn. And I'm here to map it out for you.
Let's discuss eight situations that pertain to fantasy production, starting with a premier tight end who has yet to meet expectations.
Don't give up on Travis Kelce after two weeks
I feel for Kelce managers. And I get the frustration, too. Kelce has just four receptions on the season, despite running a total of 49 routes through two games.
Those four receptions? A 23-yard catch on a scramble-drill throw from Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. Get open while the quarterback buys time. But after that, there isn't much here. Kelce has produced one reception each on an underneath out route, a screen and a pivot. That's it.
So, after two weeks, Kelce has registered a total of 8.0 fantasy points. Not what any of us expected for a player who was drafted as TE1 with an overall ADP of 23.
However, the tape I'm watching tells me the targets will be there for Kelce. He's still working multiple levels of the route tree and uncovering to make himself available to Mahomes. I can point to the three-level flood routes, the seam-ball opportunities or Kelce's ability to still set up coverage on the underneath pivots and crossers.
Want an example? On Mahomes' 44-yard touchdown pass to Rashee Rice in Week 2 versus Cincinnati, the Bengals showed split-field coverage. But with the boundary safety playing inside the numbers, Mahomes took the outside one-on-one throw. But what else did we see on that play? Kelce pushing up the seam and splitting the safeties. He was open for an explosive-play opportunity.
Andy Reid will continue to scheme for his tight end. And Kelce will get the ball. Just sit tight.
Baker Mayfield's ceiling
Through two weeks, Mayfield is the top fantasy scorer at the quarterback position, averaging 24.2 PPG. Just like we all predicted, right? Really, we can argue that Mayfield is playing the best football of his career, in a new Tampa Bay offensive system that is deploying more pre-snap movement, which forces opposing defenses to define coverages at higher rate.
Mayfield is completing 73.5% of his throws, he's already logged five touchdown passes and he has been much more willing to use his legs as a runner. Mayfield has at least three carries and 20 yards rushing in both games played, plus he added a touchdown run in the Week 2 win over the Lions.
If Mayfield can continue to take advantage of scramble opportunities while distributing the ball to upper-tier targets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I think he could potentially finish the season among the top 12 quarterbacks.
The concerning numbers on Garrett Wilson
It's still very early in the season, but there has to be some concern on the Jets' passing structure and the impact it's having on Wilson.
Despite having 17 targets over the first two weeks, Wilson is averaging just 11.1 PPG, and he has yet to see an end zone target. Plus, the Jets simply aren't pushing the ball downfield with Aaron Rodgers. The veteran quarterback has attempted just four passes of 20 or more air yards, and Wilson's average depth of target sits at 9.2 yards.
The volume is there for Wilson, but given his ability to isolate in scoring position and press the defense over the top, I expected the Jets to be much more aggressive as a passing offense with a healthy Rodgers on the field. Does Rodgers get more aggressive as a thrower this week versus the Patriots? We'll find out on Thursday night.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's rising target volume
Smith-Njigba posted career numbers in the Week 2 win over the Patriots, scoring 23.7 points, while catching 12 of a team-high 16 targets. We saw Smith-Njigba win at multiple levels of the route tree, finding space underneath and working the dirty areas of the field. Plus, he was a reliable outlet for quarterback Geno Smith versus pressure. Smith-Njigba caught five of six targets -- for 70 yards -- when Smith faced the blitz (five or more rushers).
We can't ignore the target volume here for Smith-Njigba, or his route deployment, which leads to future production. He has emerged as the No. 2 option for Smith opposite of DK Metcalf, and I'm moving him up in the ranks as a flex play for the Week 3 home game versus Miami.
The Packers' run-first game plan with Malik Willis
In the Packers' Week 2 win over the Colts, Willis' first game replacing the injured Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur's offense ran the ball a whopping 53 times. That's no different than wing-T teams I've coached against at the high school level. Now, I actually loved the game plan from LaFleur, because he schemed for his personnel on the field. That's good football.
But from a fantasy perspective, this isn't great for managers of Jayden Reed and Christian Watson.
A week after dropping 33.1 points on the Eagles, Reed caught two passes and finished the day with 6.6 points on four total touches. Watson? He was shut out. He didn't see one of Willis' 14 targets or even grab a rushing attempt on a manufactured carry.
Now, there's always a chance that Reed or Watson gets an opportunity on a schemed shot play or sees an end zone target in a low red zone situation versus Tennessee on Sunday. But I can't give up a spot in my lineup based on hope. And until Love is back on the field, or we see LaFleur expand the pass game with Willis, the Packers' wide receivers simply lack the upside to start.
Anthony Richardson's lack of designed rush attempts
Richardson has been very up and down as a passer through the first two games, posting three touchdowns and five explosive-play throws (reception of 20 or more yards) while completing only 49.1% of his passes (32nd in the league).
He's also rushed for 93 yards and a score, but the lack of designed carries doesn't really add up here for fantasy managers. Richardson has totaled just four attempts on designed carries, with only one in the Week 2 loss to the Packers. Those numbers are down compared to 2023, when Richardson had 14 attempts on designed carries through the first three weeks of the season.
Yes, Richardson has the second-reaction ability to create numbers in your lineup on scramble attempts. But you drafted Richardson because of his dual-threat traits and the Colts' ability to scheme him as a runner. Let's see if he gets more designed carries this week versus the Bears.
Is Rashid Shaheed's production sustainable?
If you play in a deeper league, you can lock in Shaheed as a starter after he's posted back-to-back games with 16 or more points while averaging 21.2 yards per catch. Deep-ball throws. Explosive plays. Highlight stuff. He can roll, now. That's track speed on the tape.
In a 10-team league, however, you need to ask yourself if Shaheed can continue to create high-level fantasy production on a consistent basis given his usage and volume.
Shaheed has seen four targets in each of his two games played, and he has just seven receptions on the season. Even in a system under new coordinator Klint Kubiak, which will scheme shots to Shaheed or put him in a position to run away from coverage, you have to view him as an upside WR3/flex, one who needs to cash in on limited opportunities.
J.K. Dobbins' fast start
Dobbins has scored 20 or more points in both games played, and he's doing this in a true backfield rotation with Gus Edwards. On the season, Edwards has actually seen more carries (29 to 27), but it's Dobbins who is creating the high-level fantasy production due to his ability to rip off explosive plays.
Dobbins has already racked up seven rushes of 10 or more yards, and his touchdowns were on runs of 61 and 43 yards. While we know 40-plus-yard carries aren't sustainable, the rushing volume is for a Chargers offense that will continue to be extremely run-heavy under coach Jim Harbaugh, which makes Dobbins a fringe RB2. And we will find out much more on Dobbins in Week 3 with the Steelers defense looming.