It's championship week!
Congratulations to all those who have made it this far. It's an accomplishment in and of itself, as you worked hard all season to make it to this point.
And the truth is, you're likely in a spot where you aren't making too many -- maybe none! -- roster decisions this week. You've got a quality squad that you'll get ready with your customary pre-game speech.
So with that in mind, we're going to keep things simple and straightforward this week in Field Pass.
The Eagles' Offense with Minshew
Minshew Mania didn't quite take over Dallas in Week 16, but it came darn close. The Eagles dropped a nail-biter 40-34, and Gardner Minshew did about as much as one could reasonably ask, both for Philadelphia and your fantasy squads.
At the time this piece was turned in for editing, it was unclear whether Jalen Hurts would start in Week 17 or not, but if he doesn't, we learned that Minshew in Week 16 was almost exactly what we expected.
And the passing game was of course not let down, as DeVonta Smith led the way with 8 catches for 113 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets, while A.J. Brown posted 6 catches for 103 yards on eight targets. Both were considered strong lineup locks coming into the game -- and that proved to be the case. Both crack the Top 15 in wide receiver ranks for Week 17.
Finally, Miles Sanders was busy -- as expected. While Hurts is one of the best rushing threats the league has amongst quarterbacks, Minshew had zero rushing yards in Week 16. Sanders posted 21 carries -- tied for the second most in any game this season -- and while his efficiency was poor, the volume was elite. He's my RB14 for Week 17.
Replacing the Irreplaceable
Finding a replacement for Derrick Henry would be hard if you spanned the entire football landscape. The Titans don't have quite as many options, but with Henry doubtful to play Thursday night against the Cowboys, they'll have to give it a try. Rookie fourth-rounder Hassan Haskins is likely the first man up, with undrafted free agent Julius Chestnut behind him.
Frankly, I'm fearful of this entire backfield for fantasy purposes. The Titans are not only likely to be down Derrick Henry, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill is confirmed to be out for the game. The offense has been incredibly limited with Malik Willis under center, other than feeding Henry the rock and letting him do his thing.
Haskins, Chestnut and any other back the Titans could have available are nowhere close to the players right now that Henry is (again, Henry is one of a kind); plus, they are very likely to share duties in the backfield instead of one dominating the touches. Tennessee is also going to be without a ton of defensive players due to injury in a game against one of the best offenses in the NFL. There is a real chance that this game against the Cowboys gets out of hand and ugly.
In a desperation play, Haskins would be my pick of a Titans running back to start, but he's my RB38 and I'd aim to avoid this backfield if I could.
The Dolphins' Offense Possibly Without Tua?
News came on Monday that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is once again in the concussion protocol, and we'll dive into what that could mean for fantasy football, but this is way more important: Here's to hoping Tagavailoa is okay and gets right on whatever timeline is needed. This is the second time he's officially been entered into the protocol (he was also checked for a concussion a third time back in September that led to an NFL-NFLPA review) and it's a scary situation; we're sending him our best.
The Dolphins will turn to Teddy Bridgewater if Tagovailoa is unable to play in Week 17, a steady veteran who has previously filled in earlier this season. While Bridgewater was hurt (he too entered concussion protocol) shortly into one of his starts, he threw for 329 yards and two touchdowns against the Vikings in a game in which he came off the bench. The Dolphins offense is exceedingly explosive, as Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are the only teammates in the NFL that each have at least 20 catches of 20+ yards. This offense should still be able to function with Bridgewater -- a respected and experienced veteran -- and I have no concerns about starting Hill or Waddle in a championship matchup.
As for a name to keep in mind for those who may have to replace Tagovailoa at quarterback...
Goff's Sweet Spot for Week 17
The second name on our list of Hurts fill-ins last week was Jared Goff, who has been extremely efficient for the Lions over the past five games: Goff has 11 touchdowns in that stretch, zero interceptions and at least 240 passing yards in all of them, while surpassing 17 fantasy points in four of those games and 20 in three of them.
Goff is locked-in right now, the Lions have an offense chock-full of playmakers and the matchup is just right in Week 17: The Lions play host to the Bears. While the raw numbers may paint a picture that the Bears' pass defense is a stingy one (they yield just 209.1 passing yards per game), they've really struggled on a per-attempt basis, allowing 7.7 yards per attempt, third-worst in the NFL.
Moreover, while Goff was very good this past week when the game was played outside, he has been especially good this season when playing indoors; he's averaged 19.7 fantasy points per game when playing in a dome. With these factors working in his favor, I've got Goff as QB6 for the week.
Engram's Rise
You've heard me lament the lack of reliable tight ends in fantasy football (there is a set of bylaws for being a fantasy analyst and one of them is reminding people often that tight ends are extremely hard to find), but Evan Engram is breathing life into the position of late.
Engram has been an especially busy guy over his past four games:
Week 16: 7 catches on 8 targets for 113 yards (18.3 FP, TE5)
Week 15: 8 catches on 10 targets for 62 yarsds (14.2FP, TE6)
Week 14: 11 catches on 15 targets for 162 yards and 2 TD (39.2 FP, TE1)
Week 13: 5 catches on 7 targets for 30 yards and 1 TD (14 FP, TE4)
More than 43% of Engram's targets for the season have come during this four-game stretch, as Jacksonville has tapped into the abundant talent that Engram has always possessed. I give their offensive staff a ton of credit for what I believe to be the fundamentals of coaching: Identify what a player does well and do your best to maximize that skillset.
While there have been some downfield opportunities for Engram, Jacksonville has also thrived by using Engram as a short area target and letting him fly after the catch (he entered the NFL as one of the fastest tight end prospects in a long time).
While it is not a requirement to play in a high functioning passing offense to be a successful fantasy tight end, the fact that Engram is catching passes from a rising star signal caller in Trevor Lawrence also boosts his value. There are other factors in play as well, one of the reasons why Mark Andrews has slumped of late has been the Ravens' disappointing passing attack. Engram doesn't have to worry about that and should be busy once again this week. I have him as TE3 in my Week 17 ranks.
We Miss Davante
We're a week removed from Festivus, but forgive me for airing a grievance this late in the game: I miss the Davante Adams that carried my squad to the playoffs!
I mean, seriously, Adams absolutely shredded opposing defenses for a five-game stretch spanning the entire month of November and the first week of December.
The raw totals during that time: 41 catches, 664 yards and 7 touchdowns. No words for just how awesome that is. He rules.
The trouble is the games since. In the three games following that torrid tear: 9 catches, 114 yards and zero touchdowns. Not average. Total.
Make it make sense. It doesn't. The mind-boggling part of this skid is that Adams has 25 targets during this three-game run, a totally serviceable number. If I told you Adams would have eight targets in a game, I'd venture that you'd take your chances on him and have a worthwhile fantasy day.
This isn't an Adams problem; nothing has changed about him as a player during this time. I don't think this is a major Derek Carr or offensive system problem either (the Raiders might disagree with me, as Carr has now been benched for Jarrett Stidham).
This, my friends, is a run of bad luck. Simply that. Normally, the goal is to give you some sort of actionable takeaway from our insight here in Field Pass. I don't have any insight on this one -- Adams is my WR7 for this week -- this is just a reminder that while we pour our heart and soul into crafting smart lineups in fantasy football each week during a long season, we have to live with the ups and downs. That's what keeps us coming back for more!
Akers' Revenge?
I'll be the first to admit that I was flat wrong on how Cam Akers would perform this season. A total whiff. I expected the second-year back to have a breakout year in what I forecasted would be a prolific offense once again, even if slightly less explosive than last season.
Anyone reading this knows just how rough of a go it has been for Akers this year, as through the first 12 weeks of the season, Akers had a total of 274 rushing yards and just one rushing touchdown to go along with 18 total receiving yards. Ugh.
The past four weeks have shone a much brighter light, as Akers has 60, 42, 65 and 118 rushing yards in those games to go along with six rushing touchdowns and back-to-back games with at least 29 receiving yards.
The person who drafted Akers is thinking "too little, too late" and frankly I get it. That's probably true. If that person held onto Akers or whoever added Akers by waivers is playing the finals, he does have some value. He's dominating the carries for a better functioning Rams offense that draws a juicy matchup this week and his uptick in passing game work has him ranked at RB14 for me.
I'd argue, however, the most important part of this resurgence for Akers is what it means for future years. Two months ago, I wondered what Akers' future was in the NFL as the Rams were unable to find a trade partner to take him off their hands. A rise in LA seemed fleeting. Yet, here we are, and with two years left on his rookie contract after this season, there's a world that I can envision in which he enters 2023 as the lead back for a very good Rams offense and has a case a top 25 fantasy running back entering the season.
Even if you're in the finals, it's never too late to starting thinking about next year! Good luck to those of you going for it!