Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks' NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Jared Goff, Lions (versus Bears). He has been one of 2022's quintessential matchups quarterbacks, averaging 20.0 fantasy points in his four games against top-eight, schedule-adjusted positional matchups, compared to 11.2 in his four games against those that graded bottom-eight (those accounting for seasonal totals rather than the past five weeks alone). While Goff scored a so-so 14.84 fantasy points in these teams' last meeting, in Week 10, the Bears' defense is a considerably softer matchup now than it was back then, with safety Eddie Jackson and cornerback Jaylon Johnson on injured reserve and the team leaning heavily upon rookies in the starting lineup. Quarterbacks have averaged 22.8 fantasy points against the Bears in their five games since that meeting, second-most in the league.
Others to like:
Aaron Rodgers (Packers, versus Vikings) scored a season-low 3.70 fantasy points against the Vikings in their Week 1 meeting, but the Vikings' defense has collapsed against the pass of late, surrendering a fifth-most-among-quarterbacks 20.1 points per game in the past seven weeks.
Dak Prescott (Cowboys, at Titans) has back-to-back 20-point performances and now faces a Titans defense that has served up 21.0 points per game to the position in the past six weeks.
Matchup to avoid: Geno Smith, Seahawks (versus Jets). Cite the "revenge factor" if you wish -- and many might point out his 19.08 fantasy-point performance in Week 8 against the Giants as compelling such evidence -- but this is not an optimal matchup for this 2013 No. 2 overall pick by the opposing Jets. Smith's performance has slipped in recent weeks, his completion percentage a more human 64.2% during the past three, and the Jets have been tough as nails against quarterbacks recently. Since their Week 10 bye, they have surrendered 14.1 fantasy points per game to the position, tied for seventh-fewest in the league, and during that time they have held Kirk Cousins to 11.82 points (Week 13); Josh Allen to 20.58 points, 10.7 of which he scored with his legs (Week 14); and Goff 14.08 points (Week 15). Smith isn't a starting consideration in an ESPN standard league.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Tyler Allgeier, Falcons (versus Cardinals). In two games since the bye, he has totaled 18 and 22 touches, his two largest totals all season, and has played 54% of the Falcons' offensive snaps, exceeding the 43% and 24 total touches that Cordarrelle Patterson has amassed in the same time. Allgeier's growing role comes at an opportune time, considering the opposing Cardinals have struggled mightily against running backs of late. In just the past three weeks alone, five different running backs have scored 15-plus PPR fantasy points against the Cardinals, and they similarly came from a trio of backfields (Patriots, Broncos and Buccaneers) from which only two running backs rank among the position's top 25 in PPR fantasy points for the season (Rhamondre Stevenson and Leonard Fournette).
Others to like:
Zonovan Knight (Jets, at Seahawks) should benefit in a big way from Mike White's reinstallation at quarterback, and the opposing Seahawks have been the season's second-worst defense against running backs (5.7 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added).
Travis Etienne Jr. (Jaguars, at Texans) gets an even more favorable matchup than does Knight, as the Texans have been this year's worst defense against running backs (6.2 Adjusted FPA).
Matchup to avoid: Josh Jacobs, Raiders (versus 49ers). To be clear, this shouldn't be misconstrued a mandate to bench Jacobs in standard leagues. I have Jacobs on a critical championship-matchup team and have no intention whatsoever to bench him. What does matter here is what this unappealing matchup does to his statistical ceiling, and that weighs when considering overall lineup construction. The 49ers, this season, have been the toughest defense against opposing running backs (minus-5.5 Adjusted FPA). When it comes to game flow, their 1.14 PPR fantasy points per target allowed to the position (which is also the league's lowest rate) doesn't bode well should the Raiders fall inescapably behind early. The good news is that Jacobs hasn't had fewer than 16 touches in a game since Week 8, and that the 49ers did serve up 24.8 PPR fantasy points to Rhamondre Stevenson as recently as Week 15. But there's not a whole lot else to support Jacobs being a high-end RB1 for Week 17.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Allen Lazard, Packers (versus Vikings). Any wide receiver who faces the Vikings these days reaps the rewards of what has become the position's most favorable schedule-adjusted matchup, with the full-season data now matching the past five weeks in that regard. Lazard, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs all receive enough of a boost to be fantasy-relevant options (dependent upon league depth, naturally), though Lazard particularly stands out due to his generally high-floor, albeit low-ceiling production, not to mention Watson's early Week 16 departure due to a hip injury. Lazard has averaged 9.4 PPR fantasy points in his past seven games, and has seen double-digit targets in three of them. Should Watson be sidelined, Lazard would have legitimate WR2 potential for this game.
Others to like:
DJ Chark (Lions, versus Bears) has averaged 12.7 PPR fantasy points and 5.0 targets in his past five games, and his matchup against the Bears is favorable enough to make him a streaming option in larger leagues.
Chris Moore (Texans, versus Jaguars) might've had a quiet Week 16, but he's still the No. 2 option behind Brandin Cooks on an offense that should be frequently throwing. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have allowed five wide receivers to score double-digit PPR fantasy points against them in just the past four weeks.
Matchup to avoid: DK Metcalf, Seahawks (versus Jets). His is another example of "too tough to sit," even in standard leagues, but this is an unattractive matchup that will only look worse should Tyler Lockett (finger) be sidelined again for Week 17. The Jets have allowed only one 20-plus PPR fantasy point game to a wide receiver in their past 12 games, and in the past four weeks alone they've held outstanding wideouts Justin Jefferson to 18.6 PPR fantasy points on 11 targets (Week 13), Stefon Diggs to 6.7 points on five targets (Week 14) and Amon-Ra St. Brown to 15.2 points on nine targets (Week 15). Metcalf simply lacks a WR1's ceiling for the championship week, so construct the remainder of your lineup accordingly.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Dalton Schultz, Cowboys (at Titans). Though he has a pedestrian 17% target share in the past five weeks, his 49.9 PPR fantasy points in that time ranks sixth-best at his position. Such is the nature of the tough-to-fill tight end position in 2022, but that merely heightens the value of favorable matchups, of which this is clearly one. The Titans, if you recall, surrendered 39.2 PPR fantasy points to Evan Engram in Week 14, the second-best score by any tight end in 2022, and they've allowed the third-most points per game to the position in the past five weeks (18.2).
Others to like:
Over the past seven weeks, Jordan Akins (Texans, versus Jaguars) has been the TE13 in terms of PPR fantasy points (52.8), and the Jaguars this season have surrendered the fourth-most points per target to tight ends (2.07).
Matchup to avoid: Tyler Higbee, Rams (at Chargers). Don't get lured in by his 30.4 PPR fantasy point, 11-target Week 16 outburst. That was against a Broncos defense that appeared to mail it in for much of the contest, and it represented only the fourth time in his past 10 games that he exceeded five targets. Higbee has been woefully inconsistent, and outside of Travis Kelce's 35.5 point outburst against them in Week 11, the Chargers have been excellent against tight ends this season. They held notable names such as Evan Engram to 3.9 PPR fantasy points (Week 3), Kyle Pitts to 4.7 points (Week 9) and George Kittle to 3.1 points (Week 10).