Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
It's Week 17 in the NFL. So, let's go win a fantasy championship. I've got some upgrades for your lineups, plus a couple of players I have concerns about. And, as always, we will hit on my notes from the tape. Brock Purdy, Jahan Dotson, Gardner Minshew and more in there.
We'll start in Green Bay, with the scoring upside of running back AJ Dillon.
Upgrades for Week 17
AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers
Dillon has logged a touchdown in each of his past four games. He's a downhill hammer near the goal line. Get those pads low on defense, here. He's also seeing usage as a receiving target too, with 11 receptions during that stretch as an underneath outlet for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And I really like the Week 17 matchup versus a Vikings defense allowing 24.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backs (10th most in the league). My RB24 this week, Dillon should be started in all scoring formats, and he could see an uptick in touches depending on the injury status with Aaron Jones (ankle).
Cam Akers, RB, Los Angeles Rams
With the bump in usage over his past four games plus a season-high 34.7 PPR points in the Week 16 win over Denver, Akers is an easy start for Sunday's game versus the Chargers. My RB13 this week and going up against a defense allowing 25.2 fantasy points to opposing backs per game, Akers is in a good spot given the Rams' run game structure. Zone and power schemes, with misdirection. And Akers played with some juice on the Week 16 tape. He found daylight and hit it with speed. You should feel confident playing Akers as an RB2 in your lineup.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
One of my top streaming options this season, Goff heads into Week 17 as a must-start versus a Bears defense lacking in pass rush production and proven difference-makers in the secondary. The Lions quarterback has posted 21 or more fantasy points in three of his past four starts, with nine touchdown throws. This sets up as a game where Detroit can take advantage of passing game matchups, while also scheming some shot play throws versus the Bears zone coverages. Goff is my QB8 this week.
Downgrades for Week 17
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks' quarterback has managed just one touchdown pass in each of his past two starts, and the Week 17 matchup versus the Jets doesn't point to a bounce-back game. That New York defense allows just 195.5 passing yards a game. And we see it in fantasy scoring too, with the Jets surrendering 14.4 points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Robert Saleh's unit is very defined from a coverage perspective, and that pass rush can get home. I dropped Smith to my QB16 this week.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
The volume is still there for Chubb. He has posted back-to-back games of 20 or more carries. But his recent run on low-level fantasy production, plus the Week 17 matchup versus the Washington defense, has the Browns' running back sliding in my rankings. Chubb hasn't found the end zone since Week 12. And he has also failed to score more than 12 PPR points in four straight games. With the Commanders' defense featuring one of the league's best fronts and allowing just 19.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backs (fourth fewest), Chubb should be played as a midtier RB2.
More notes from the tape
49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has averaged 17.7 fantasy points in his past four games. He's making the throws to the schemed windows and reading it out (with speed) on dropback concepts. You can take Purdy as a high-floor streaming option this week versus the Raiders' defense. Kyle Shanahan can coach.
Commanders rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson has scored a touchdown in each of his past three games. Trust the talent of Dotson here -- even with Washington making a quarterback change. Dotson can get open for Carson Wentz versus the Browns. He's an upside WR3 play for me.
Tee Higgins logged two explosive play receptions in Week 16 versus the Patriots on outside verticals. When quarterback Joe Burrow sees a one-on-one opportunity with Higgins aligned into the boundary, you should expect the fade ball.
Eagles quarterback Gardner Minshew posted 22.7 fantasy points in the Week 16 loss to the Cowboys. And he didn't flinch. An aggressive thrower, with the movement traits to make second-reaction plays, Minshew is another top streaming option this week versus the Saints if starter Jalen Hurts is still out with a shoulder injury.
Packers wide receiver Christian Watson caught 6-of-8 targets in the first half against the Dolphins before leaving with an injury (hip). If the rookie can go this week, you can play him in the lineup as a WR2 versus the Vikings. Big play potential against split-safety coverage looks.
Panthers running backs D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard combined for eight explosive play rushes (rush of 15 yards or more) in the Week 16 win over the Lions. Power, trap, zone schemes. That was a run game clinic. And Hubbard is still available in over 70% of ESPN leagues. He's a potential streaming option (in deeper leagues) for the Week 17 game versus Tampa Bay.
I would expect more quicks and underneath throws to Jaguars tight end Evan Engram this week against the Texans' defense. Lot of zone here (Cover 2). Engram has at least seven receptions in each of his past three games.
Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen has scored 20 or more fantasy points in three of his past four games. And he has seen 51 targets during that stretch. This is classic Allen, too. Win at the short-to-intermediate level. And move the sticks. Allen is my WR9 this week versus the Rams.
Bills running backs Devin Singletary and James Cook combined for 205 yards rushing in the Week 16 win over the Bears. The brutal weather in Chicago had to factor in here when looking at the rushing volume, but Buffalo does need a run game element in this offense. Singletary is a flex starter for me in a big Monday night game at Cincinnati.
I've got Georgia and Michigan this Saturday in the college football playoffs. Those are my picks to advance to the National Championship game. I'll take Iowa in the Music City Bowl, too. Go Hawks.