Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into Week 17 route type vs. coverage type mismatches, plus some blocking up matchups in the ground game. Hopefully, it'll be just the little push you need in what is, for many, the fantasy championship.
Route type vs. coverage
Some routes are more productive against certain coverages. Sometimes, that difference can be large! The idea in this section is to look at the routes receivers run and the coverages their upcoming opponent runs on defense to see who is expected to gain a schematic edge. Tallied altogether, the advantages on a week-to-week basis are small. But if you've got a tough start/sit call or you're trying to settle an internal DFS debate, this is certainly worth a look to nudge you in one direction or another.
Upgrade: Jakobi Meyers vs. Dolphins' Cover 3
Sound the schematic-mismatch siren folks, because we have the most extreme positive combination one can have right here!
The highest yards per route run combination between route type and coverage type is deep crosses against a Cover 3 zone at 3.6. Guess who runs a highest rate of deep crosses of all receivers in the NFL? Jakobi Meyers. Guess who runs more Cover 3 than any other team in the NFL? The Miami Dolphins. This is an all-timer!
Now, I don't want to get your hopes up too much because we're still talking about a small edge, as always. Meyers run deep crosses on 9% of his routes, and the Dolphins run Cover 3 35% of the time. Multiply those together and we're looking at just over 3% of dropbacks resulting in a Meyers deep cross vs. Cover 3. That's probably one time. But look at it this way: we can be more confident that Meyers gets that opportunity against the Dolphins than against any other team.
Upgrade: Jaylen Waddle vs. Patriots' Cover 1 and Cover 3
The Patriots are not embracing the NFL's shift to two-high coverages, ranking fifth and ninth in Cover 1 and Cover 3 rate, respectively. And hey, New England has been one of the best pass defenses in the league this season, so who am I to argue?
But, once we set the expectation that the Dolphins are going against a good defense, New England's single-high approach is better from Waddle's perspective. The Dolphins receiver runs a ton of crossers -- a cumulative 17% of his routes are deep crosses, medium crosses and slices (or deep overs) -- that all have the benefit of crossing in front of the single-high safety and putting Waddle into open space. Plus, he runs quite a bit of digs (9%) too, which also perform better against Cover 3 than any other coverage.
Downgrade: DeVonta Smith vs. Saints' Cover 2 man
That the Saints run Cover 2 man 17% of the time might not sound like a ton, but it's more than double the league average of 8%. It's unideal for Smith given the routes he runs. Curl routes, go routes and comebacks -- which all make up a substantial part of Smith's route profile relative to other receivers -- share a common trait: they perform the worst on a yards per route run basis against Cover 2 man. Against go routes the safety is there to help, and for comebacks and curls, the presence of the safety allows the corner to play tight coverage.
Downgrade: Ja'Marr Chase vs. Bills' Cover 2 man and Cover 2 zone
This one is pretty easy to figure out: The various two-high safety coverages the Bills run frequently compared to other teams (Cover 2 man, Cover 2 zone and even the occasional Tampa 2) all make life harder for a deep-threat receiver such as Chase. Chase runs a lot of deep fades and corners, which are relatively ineffective against one or both of those aforementioned Buffalo coverages. He runs a lot of deep outs, too, which are efficient routes no matter what but at least less so against Cover 2 zone.
Matchups in the trenches
Another tool we like to rely on in this space is our win rates: specifically, run stop win rate (and the converse, run block win rate) to evaluate matchups for running backs. While we have very good production-based matchup data (yards per carry against or fantasy points against), I think run stop win rate adds to the conversation. The way I think of it: Run stop win rate is process, and yards per carry against is result. Both are useful. With that in mind, let's take a look at upgrades and downgrades for running backs this week, based on the RSWR of their opponents.
Upgrade: Dalvin Cook at Green Bay Packers
Packers RSWR Rank: 31st
Though fantasy managers have surely been satisfied with Dalvin Cook's output this season, it's actually come despite some poor underlying signals: the Vikings' run block win rate is below average and Cook has recorded -2 rush yards over expectation, a big drop-off from what he has produced in the past, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
That has me concerned about Cook in the long-term, but not in Week 17. No, in this case he gets the benefit of Green Bay's leaky run defense, which is allowing 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Upgrade: Zack Moss at New York Giants
Giants RSWR Rank: 30th
Moss has tallied 36 carries over his last two games, so we should expect he should earn a decent workload. And that bodes well against the Giants, who are allowing 5.3 yards per carry to opposing backs in addition to their abysmal run stop win rate. It's not a mismatch because the Colts have not been particularly good in run blocking this year -- they rank 23rd in run block win rate -- but it's an easier run-blocking opponent than the Colts have faced in each of Moss' first two contests as the primary ball carrier.
Downgrade: Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott at Tennessee Titans
Titans RSWR Rank: 1st
The Tennessee Titans are one team fantasy managers just don't want to see on their running backs' schedules. The Titans are by far the best team in the league in terms of run stop win rate, and they've allowed just 3.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs thanks to players such as defensive tackles Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart (though Simmons has been missing practice this week). Perhaps game flow will result in enough volume for Dallas' backs, but I wouldn't expect an efficient performance.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.