Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
The tape on Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence tells us the story. He's playing his best football as a pro. And with a Week 13 matchup versus the Detroit Lions' defense, it's time to get Lawrence in your lineup.
Let's take look at Lawrence here, along with some quarterbacks to downgrade this week based on the matchups. There's some running backs to discuss, too. And we'll also hit on my notes from the tape.
Upgrades for Week 13
Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence is dialed in. He's throwing with velocity and touch, working fast from the pocket and making plays in critical moments. And with two straight games of 20 or more fantasy points, and five total touchdown passes, Lawrence has jumped into my top 10 ranks this week (QB9). And we know he can create on second-reaction rushing attempts. The Week 13 matchup plays here too, versus a Lions defense allowing 23.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks -- the most in the league. Go with the young QB this week as your starter.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
I'm taking Montgomery here as a solid, midtier RB2 this week versus a Packers run defense allowing 25.6 PPR fantasy points per game to opposing backs -- seventh most in the NFL. And that defensive unit is also giving up an average of close to 5 yards per carry. I also think Montgomery will have a higher ceiling this week if quarterback Justin Fields (shoulder) can go for the Bears. More shotgun runs, with the natural cutback lane for Montgomery on zone-read concepts, plus the misdirection schemes. But even if Fields is still out, you can still count on the volume for Montgomery in Chicago's run-heavy approach. Montgomery has logged 37 touches in his past two games, with six receptions. He's currently my RB15 for the week.
Garrett Wilson, WR, New York Jets
I roster Wilson in two of my home leagues, and he'll be in my lineups this week versus a split-safety-heavy Vikings defense that can be schemed up. Yes, I do think Jets quarterback Mike White upgrades the fantasy ceiling for Wilson here. The ball comes out on time with White under center. He can hit the defined throws, find the coverage voids and play within structure. Last week, in White's first start of the season, Wilson caught 5 of 8 targets -- with two scores -- in the win over the Bears and scored 26.4 PPR points. And this Minnesota defense has struggled to limit opposing receivers, allowing an average of 39.2 fantasy points per game. With Wilson's dynamic ability after the catch, the Jets can set up the wide receiver to attack zone windows this Sunday. He's my WR2.
Downgrades for Week 13
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I really don't like the Week 13 matchup for Brady against Dennis Allen's defense in New Orleans. Brady will see heavily schemed fronts here, with stunts to create interior pressure. And the Saints will play a bunch of two-man coverage (two-deep, man-under) with the safeties cutting crossing routes. In their first meeting of the season (Week 2), the Saints played two-man coverage on 42.9% of Brady's dropbacks. That's a big number. And the veteran quarterback struggled, posting a season-low 9.4 fantasy points on 18-of-34 passing. I have Brady as my QB15 this week. Better options in Week 13 with Geno Smith, Derek Carr and Dak Prescott.
Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, Miami Dolphins
I'll still start Wilson in one of my leagues, but I am dropping him down to the flex spot this week against the 49ers' defense. That front seven is nasty, with second-level speed and the NFL's best stack linebacker in Fred Warner. The league-leading numbers are there, too. The 49ers are allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and 15.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. After posting only 13.2 PPR points last week versus the Texans' defense, Wilson slides in the ranks as my RB28.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
This is a pretty tough divisional stretch for Jones. Last week, in the Thanksgiving game at Dallas, Jones finished with 14.52 fantasy points. And he gets Washington in Week 13, before seeing Philly in Week 14. For me, the fantasy floor is just too low here given the lack of consistent throwing volume in the Giants' offense, plus the need for Jones to produce rushing totals/scores. And this Washington defense can disrupt the pocket. I'd stay away from Jones here.
Players to monitor in Week 13
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Pickett could have some streaming upside moving forward. The rookie quarterback looks poised and comfortable in the pocket. The mobility is there to create outside of structure as a runner (16 carries in his past three games). And Pickett is willing to take the isolation throws with rookie wide receiver George Pickens. Now we need to see the Steelers quarterback put the ball in the end zone (only one touchdown pass in his past three games).
Jelani Woods, TE, Indianapolis Colts
The rookie tight end dropped a season-high 17.9 PPR points on the Steelers' defense this past Monday night, catching 8 of 9 targets for 98 yards. Woods has the physical tools to stretch defenses and create red zone matchups, too. Does the target volume remain consistent? We will find out in the Week 13 matchup versus Dallas.
More notes from the tape
Washington running back Brian Robinson Jr. played his best game as a pro in the Week 12 win over Atlanta. And he elevates the Commanders' run game with his physical style. Plus, let's not forget that Robinson does have the traits to catch the ball out of the backfield. He posted 125 total yards -- and a score -- against the Falcons, finishing with a season-high 20.5 PPR points. The rookie gets the Giants' defense this week.
The Eagles have the NFL's best run game: powerful and athletic movers up front,mMultiple in scheme, formation and motion/misdirection. And they gain a numbers advantage when Jalen Hurts carries the ball on designed rushes. That was a clinic in the Week 12 win over Green Bay.
Joe Burrow's stats in the Week 12 win over the Titans don't really jump: 270 yards passing, one touchdown. But he made some big-time throws in that game. Burrow is my QB5 for the Week 13 game versus the Chiefs.
Packers rookie wide receiver Christian Watson has three straight games with 20 or more PPR points. And he gets a matchup versus a banged-up Bears secondary this Sunday. Verticals and crossers: Those are big plays with Watson's straight-line speed.
The Bengals limited Derrick Henry to 2.2 yards per carry on 17 rushing attempts. And the run support from the Cincinnati secondary had a lot to do with that, with Mike Hilton, Von Bell, Eli Apple and Jessie Bates. They play with urgency and physicality. And remember, the best secondaries tackle.
I can't wait to watch Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa versus the 49ers' defense. That's the best matchup of Week 13: Miami's timing and rhythm pass game versus San Francisco's defined coverages. Good football here.