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Fantasy football Shadow Report: Upgrade Packers WRs in Week 13

Christian Watson has emerged as the Packers No. 1 WR this season and could have another big game against a weak Bears secondary in Week 13. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

By using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defense schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start decisions and fantasy advice each week. Fantasy football is a weekly game, so knowing the matchups can also help you make the best waiver wire pickups.

Here are the receivers with the best and worst matchups this week, as well as the corresponding fantasy impact.

To view the primary defenders the top three wide receivers for each team will see this weekend, be sure to check out our weekly WR vs. CB Cheatsheet.

Unless otherwise noted, references to where teams rank in statistical categories adjust to a per-game basis to avoid distortion due to bye weeks.


Advantageous matchups

Falcons' Drake London, Olamide Zaccheaus and Damiere Byrd vs. Steelers' Levi Wallace, Cameron Sutton and Ahkello Witherspoon/James Pierre

The Steelers have allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the fourth most to the perimeter and to the slot. It doesn't get much worse than that, and it certainly doesn't help that Witherspoon has missed six of the last seven games with a hamstring injury. Atlanta receivers are extremely tough to trust in what is one of the league's heaviest run schemes, but perhaps London has some deep league flex appeal in this matchup. Aligning on the perimeter 83% of the time, he'll work primarily against struggling Wallace and some combination of Witherspoon (if back), top corner Sutton and Pierre. Zaccheaus and Byrd should only be considered for DFS tournament lineups.

Packers' Christian Watson, Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard vs. Bears' Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon and Kindle Vildor

After being protected by minimal volume faced earlier this season, the wheels have fallen off of the Chicago pass defense in recent weeks. The Bears have allowed the second-most fantasy points over expected to receivers this season, including the most over the last eight and four weeks. They've also allowed the sixth-most fantasy points straight up to the position over the last month. Watson (66% perimeter) and Lazard (58%) can be upgraded against Johnson and Vildor, and Cobb gets a boost against the rookie Gordon in the slot.

Jaguars' Marvin Jones Jr., Christian Kirk and Zay Jones vs. Lions' Jeff Okudah, Will Harris and Jerry Jacobs

The Lions' cornerback situation remains in flux. Top CB Jeff Okudah (concussion) was out last week, which led to Mike Hughes -- not Amani Oruwariye, who has been benched twice this season - joining Jacobs on the perimeter against Buffalo. Okudah may return this week, but he has been serviceable at best, and Detroit has allowed the third-most fantasy points to receivers this season (12th most to the perimeter, seventh most to the slot). Jacksonville's receivers can be upgraded across the board.

Jets' Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and Corey Davis vs. Vikings' Akayleb Evans, Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson

The Vikings continue to struggle against wide receivers, having allowed the fifth-most fantasy points (second most over the last month) to the position this season. They've allowed the most points to the perimeter for the season and over the last eight weeks. Peterson is the top perimeter corner and, with Cameron Dantzler on IR, he'll be joined outside by either Evans (if back from injury) or journeyman Duke Shelley, with Sullivan manning the slot. The Jets' receivers were rejuvenated a bit by Mike White last week, and this matchup presents an opportunity for another big game. Wilson has worked outside more in recent weeks and will see a ton of Peterson and Evans/Shelley. The same goes Davis on the other side, whereas Moore gets a slight boost against Sullivan in the slot.

Commanders' Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson vs. Giants' Fabian Moreau, Darnay Holmes and Nick McCloud

Adoree' Jackson left Week 11's game with an injury and is expected to remain out for another week or three. With fellow starter Aaron Robinson on IR, New York is now missing its top-two perimeter CBs and will be left with the likes of Moreau (who was also out last week), McCloud, Cordale Flott and Rodarius Williams on the perimeter, and Holmes in the slot. The Giants were terrific against WRs earlier this season but are middle of the pack in points allowed over the last month, including the eighth most to the perimeter (and third most to McLaurin's primary side of the field). Upgrade Washington's receivers.


Other notable upgrades

Broncos' Courtland Sutton and KJ Hamler vs. Ravens' Brandon Stephens, Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters

Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the most to the perimeter, over the last month. Sutton (85% perimeter) and Hamler (81%) can be upgraded, though we're not upgrading Jerry Jeudy (31%) as he'll see a lot of Humphrey in the slot.

Chargers' Keenan Allen vs. Raiders' Tyler Hall (Slot)

Las Vegas has allowed the most fantasy points to the slot, which is where Allen aligns 63% of the time.

Eagles' A.J. Brown, Quez Watkins and DeVonta Smith vs. Titans' Kristian Fulton, Elijah Molden and Roger McCreary

The Titans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers, including the second most to the perimeter.

Lions' Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Jaguars' Rayshawn Jenkins (Slot)


Tough matchups

Buccaneers' Mike Evans vs. Saints' Marshon Lattimore (Shadow)

Where else to start but with Evans vs. Lattimore Round 11? These two have a storied history, and the rivalry took a turn for the worse back in Week 2. After Lattimore shadowed Evans on 14 of his first 23 routes (including 13 of 15 on the perimeter), the two were involved in a fight and were promptly ejected (Evans was also suspended for Week 3). Lattimore also shadowed Evans once as a rookie, twice in 2018, once in 2019 (Lattimore missed the other game), three times in 2020 and twice last season. Evans' stat lines in the games Lattimore shadowed him are as follows (in chronological order starting with 2017): 5-55-0, 7-147-1, 4-86-0, 0-0-0, 1-2-1, 4-64-0, 1-3-1, 2-48-1, 1-14-0, and most recently, 3-61-0. Evans was held in check in both 2021 meetings, though note that he left the second game with an injury after 15 routes. In the meeting earlier this season, Evans had 7 yards on one catch against Lattimore, but produced 54 yards on two catches against Justin Evans. Lattimore has clearly had Evans' number for the most part over the years, so there's obviously some bust potential here, but note that the standout corner has missed seven-consecutive games with an abdominal injury. He has a good shot to return this week, but certainly could be limited. Lower expectations for Evans a bit, but he should remain in lineups.

Cowboys' Michael Gallup, CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown vs. Colts' Stephon Gilmore, Kenny Moore II and Isaiah Rodgers

Consider this your weekly reminder that the Colts have allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, as well as the fifth fewest to the perimeter and second fewest to the slot. Top corner Gilmore has often been called on to shadow on the boundary, including a combined 110 of 118 perimeter routes (93%) run by Brandin Cooks, Travis Kelce, Courtland Sutton, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown in those six games. That being said, he may follow Lamb when he aligns out wide this week, but note that Dallas' top receiver is in the slot 59% of the time (Gilmore doesn't align in the slot at all). Lamb may not have to worry too much about Gilmore, but this is a tough matchup overall for he, Michael Gallup and Noah Brown.

Colts' Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Cowboys' Trevon Diggs (Shadow)

After not shadowing full time during Weeks 1-8, Diggs has done so in two of Dallas' last three games. That includes Allen Lazard in Week 10 and Justin Jefferson in Week 11. Both were held in check. Lazard posted a 3-45-0 receiving line, including zero catches against Diggs, and Jefferson was held to a 3-33-0 line on four targets (all against Diggs). It's not a lock, but Diggs recent usage suggests that he'll travel with Pittman the 74% of the time he aligns on the perimeter this week. Diggs has been good in coverage this season, and Dallas has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to left perimeter receivers, which is where he aligns 88% of the time. Pittman should be downgraded, but Parris Campbell and Alec Pierce can be upgraded a bit against DaRon Bland and Anthony Brown, respectively.

Vikings' Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn and Adam Thielen vs. Jets' D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner

The Jets continue to show well against wide receivers, having allowed the third-fewest fantasy points (fewest over the last eight and four weeks), as well as the second fewest to the perimeter for the season. New York has picked up against the slot as well, having allowed the third-fewest points over the last month. Jefferson and Thielen move all over the formation, so they'll see a fairly equal share of Reed, Gardner and Carter in this game. We're obviously never too worried about Jefferson, but we should lower expectations a bit for both receivers and consider sitting Thielen this week.

Bills' Stefon Diggs vs. Patriots' Jonathan Jones (Shadow)

After years as one of the league's top slot corners, Jones has emerged as a force on the perimeter this season. Jones has been asked to shadow several times, including matchups with Tyreek Hill, Romeo Doubs and, most recently, Justin Jefferson. Jones shadowed Jefferson on 20 of his 26 coverage snaps last week, leaving Jalen Mills to shadow Adam Thielen. New England has chosen to shadow Diggs with J.C. Jackson in recent years, so we should expect them to do the same with current No. 1 corner Jones here in Week 13. Jones, as noted, has played well, and the Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to his primary side of the field, not to mention the seventh-fewest points overall to wide receivers. Jones has not spent much time in the slot this season (7%) and Diggs aligns inside 35% of the time, so we should not expect this to be a full game of one-on-one matchups. Consider downgrading Diggs a bit, but there's no need for major panic. Gabriel Davis will see a ton of Mills on the other side of the field and should be upgraded, as New England has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to his side (second most over the last eight weeks).

Titans' Treylon Burks and Robert Woods vs. Eagles' James Bradberry and Darius Slay

The Eagles have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season (second fewest over expected), as well as the fewest to the perimeter. Burks (81% perimeter) and Woods (68%) will see Slay and Bradberry on most of their routes and can be downgraded. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine draws Josiah Scott in the slot and can actually be upgraded. The Eagles have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to the slot.

Other notable downgrades

Ravens' Demarcus Robinson, James Proche II and Devin Duvernay vs. Broncos' Pat Surtain II, Essang Bassey and Damarri Mathis

Denver has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points overall and the third fewest to the perimeter, though they haven't been quite as dominant as of late with Ronald Darby and K'Waun Williams sidelined.

Other Notes

Browns' Amari Cooper vs. Texans' Derek Stingley Jr. (Shadow)

If Stingley (hamstring) returns from a two-game absence this week, expect the rookie to shadow Cooper. Stingley has shadowed top perimeter CBs (Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, Davante Adams, Robert Woods, A.J. Brown) this season, so it's logical that he'd follow Cooper the 72% of the time he's aligned on the boundary this week. In terms of upgrade vs. downgrade, this is a tricky one, as noted in past weeks. The Texans have not been effective slowing receivers (9.5 yards per target allowed is third highest in the league), but they also haven't allowed many fantasy points because they're often trailing and don't see much pass volume. Houston has faced the third-fewest targets and has allowed the fourth-fewest receptions and fewest TDs (four) to wide receivers. Stingley has been heavily targeted when shadowing and hasn't shown well in coverage, so we don't need to downgrade Cooper a ton in this matchup. Donovan Peoples-Jones can be downgraded slightly against Steven Nelson and Desmond King.

Seahawks' DK Metcalf vs. Rams' Jalen Ramsey (Part time Shadow)

Ramsey hasn't shadowed full time at all this season, but occasionally leaned toward the opposing No. 1 perimeter receiver. That included following the likes of Stefon Diggs, Marquise Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins part time. Ramsey was utilized similarly in both games against Seattle last season and ended up aligning against Metcalf on 30 of his 58 routes (28 of 44 on the perimeter). That's not quite enough to force much concern for Metcalf's outlook, especially since the Rams have not been good against receivers this season (ninth-most fantasy points allowed) and have especially struggled against the perimeter (third most allowed). Metcalf (81% perimeter) and Tyler Lockett (61%) work outside most of the time and actually stand to benefit from matchups with Troy Hill, Derion Kendrick and David Long at times in this game.

Raiders' Davante Adams vs. Chargers' Asante Samuel Jr. (Shadow)
Raiders' Mack Hollins vs. Chargers' Michael Davis (Shadow)
Raiders' Keelan Cole vs. Chargers' Bryce Callahan (Slot)

When these teams met in Week 1, Samuel shadowed Adams on 25 of his 41 routes, including 24 of 29 on the perimeter. Davis shadowed Hollins, covering him on 27 of 38 routes, including 26 of 37 on the boundary. Hollins was held in check (zero catches against Davis and 16 yards total in the game), but Adams came up big with a 10-141-1 receiving line on 17 targets. The Chargers have dabbled with shadowing and cornerback movement all season, so it's logical to expect the same matchups as in Week 1. We're avoiding Hollins (same as usual), but we don't have to move the needle on Adams after he showed so well in Week 1.