Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're diving into route profiles and how they match up with Week 13 opponents, plus some sack projections.
Route profiles and matchups
One concept we've looked at in this space this season is route profiles: the rate at which each receiver runs each route type -- on all routes run, not just targets. Some route profiles are more productive on average than others -- a high rate of deep crossers is a lot better than a high rate of go routes, for example -- but at this point I think those are probably pretty baked in to a receiver's fantasy value unless there's been a significant shift for a player midseason.
There's another factor that changes on a weekly basis: the opponent. And certain routes have a natural advantage against certain coverages in terms of yards per route run. It's a small edge, but isn't that what we're here for? Let's check out the matchups at the extremes in Week 13.
Upgrade: Terry McLaurin vs. Giants' Cover-1
McLaurin runs drags, deep outs, digs and deep crossers at a high rate relative to other wide receivers.
Historically, receivers record a very high 3.2 yards per deep out route run against Cover-1, better than any coverage and deep crossers average 3.3 yards per route run against Cover-1, with the receiver crossing the face of the single-high safety, which trails the 3.6 the route maintains against Cover-3 but is still high.
The Giants run Cover-1 44% of the time, second only to the Cowboys. It should set up nicely for McLaurin to have success on those productive routes.
Upgrade: Gabe Davis vs. Patriots' Cover-1 and Cover-3
Davis runs a lot of deep routes: three seconds after the snap on pass plays Davis is 11.3 yards downfield on average, 17th-most out of 153 wide receivers, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.
In particular Davis runs a ton of go routes - his 13% go route rate is second-highest among WRs - and while a go rate that high is normally something I'm critical of, if you're going to do that, it's best against single-high coverages. That's what the Bills should see a ton of on Thursday: the Patriots rank in the top-six in both Cover-1 and Cover-3. Go routes are particularly effective against Cover-1, which New England runs the most.
That pattern continues for other routes Davis runs frequently: slices (or deep overs) are effective against both Cover-1 and Cover-3 and digs are slightly better against Cover-3 than all other coverages.
Upgrade: Brandon Aiyuk vs. Miami Dolphins' Cover-3 and Cover-1
On top of producing at a high level and being a Receiver Tracking Metrics darling, Aiyuk has a nice matchup schematically against the Dolphins this week.
This is a similar situation to Davis above, the Dolphins run more Cover-3 than anyone (37% of the time) and also the third-most Cover-1. It's all single-high, and it pairs nicely with the routes Aiyuk runs (from his perspective!).
Digs are Aiyuk's most frequently used route relative to other wide receivers, and those fare best against Cover-3. He adds in a healthy portion of gos (good against both single-high coverages) and slants (performs well vs. Cover-1).
Downgrade: Elijah Moore vs. Minnesota Vikings' Cover-2 Zone
Moore finally put up numbers - 64 receiving yards last week - after the Jets made a quarterback switch, but his route profile has an unideal matchup in Week 13: the Vikings' Cover-2 Zone. Minnesota runs the coverage 39% of the time, by far the most of any team in the NFL.
Moore runs corner routes 10% of the time, the fourth-most of any wide receiver. Against Cover-2 Zone though, that means running into an area a safety is marking, and the route performs significantly worse in those instances: 1.1 yards per route run vs. Cover-2 Zone as opposed to 2.0 against Cover-1.
Other routes that Moore runs frequently - comebacks, deep outs and deep fades - all show significantly worse performance against Cover-2 Zone compared to other coverages.
Receiver Tracking Metrics
We've used our Receiver Tracking Metrics here throughout the season to try and identify players to acquire or trade away - both for this year and, in dynasty leagues, beyond - based on the underlying skills that receivers are showing. Let's take a look at a few players based on the latest ratings.
Acquire: WR Darius Slayton, New York Giants
There is perhaps no RTM more shocking this season than Slayton's Open Score.
Here are his Open Scores from 2019-2021: 42, 42, 29. So he's been below average throughout his career at getting open relative to expectations.
But this season? Slayton's Open Score is an 87. Slayton's routes and targets are a slightly smaller sample than most other receivers, but to me, this fundamentally shifts how I view Slayton going forward. I wouldn't have considered him a long-term viable receiving option, but I do now, especially if the Giants can upgrade at quarterback eventually. Slayton's route profile has changed in the Brian Daboll offense, as he's running more crossers, digs and flats and has reduced the number of comebacks and deep outs.
The RTMs control for the route type so that's not necessarily the cause of Slayton's breakout, but it is possible he's simply better at the routes he is running this year.
Trade: WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
We've been down on Pickens in a few ways here this year - both for his route profile and his RTMs. With his production ticking up, I think now is a good time to cash in on him. Pickens' yardage has been fueled by his contested catch ability: he has a 79 Catch Score, but just a 42 Open Score. With Open Score being the most stable of the three RTMs, this is an unideal combination.
Players can have successful careers as a contested catch specialist - McLaurin, Kenny Golladay, Allen Robinson II have all shown it's possible - but it's not the kind of player I want to bet on usually. By contrast, fellow rookie Chris Olave has an 80 Catch Score and also an 80 Open Score. That kind of profile offers far more upside.
Acquire: WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Investing in the Denver offense - for this year and beyond - is a scary proposition, but Sutton has actually put up the best Open Score (78) of his career this season. The reason why no one has noticed is that it's been masked by an atrocious Catch Score (22). Part of that probably stems from Russell Wilson's decline, though the idea here is to attempt to separate receiver from quarterback. Especially for next season, I would be looking to buy on Sutton, betting on that Catch Score regressing toward his career mean, including this season, of 38.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.