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There comes a time in the regular season in which the waiver wire in fantasy football comes close to drying up.
Week 12 of the 2022 NFL regular season is not that week.
Due to breakthrough performances, injuries and depth chart shuffling, this week proved to be a productive one on the waiver wire.
Let's take a look at the players who were available in more than 50% of leagues to begin the week that most piqued our interest (we'll break the rules with one notable caveat) and size up how we see them going forward.
All these players merit a look to see if they are still available in your league(s):
Latavius Murray, RB, Denver Broncos: Melvin Gordon III was waived to begin the week, while Chase Edmonds is now out multiple weeks because of an ankle injury. That leaves Murray as the Broncos' starter and in line for a legitimate rushing workload each week. He already has at least 14 rushes in three of his five games as a Bronco. Presuming that work stays steady and he adds 2-4 targets per game, he has RB2 value.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers: The hottest wideout in fantasy right now, Watson has five touchdowns over the past two weeks. He has played at least 80% of the snaps for the Packers in each of the past two games and has 14 targets in that time. He's a potential top-25 rest-of-season option at wideout as Aaron Rodgers' best big-play threat. Note: Watson was already above 50% rostered to start this week, but not by too much, hence the inclusion.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Cleveland Browns: DPJ has been a favorite waiver-wire suggestion of mine for a few weeks now, as he continues to clearly emerge as the No. 2 target in the Browns' offense. He has 46 targets over his past seven games, posting at least 50 receiving yards in all of those games, and is riding a streak of at least 11.5 fantasy points in four straight games. He's a quality player.
Samaje Perine, RB, Cincinnati Bengals: At the time of this piece going live, Joe Mixon remains in concussion protocol. Perine is an experienced and talented backup who would be in line for a major role if Mixon were out Sunday. Perine is a good runner and very solid pass-catcher, as was evidenced in Week 11 when he found the end zone three times. He's a top-15 back if Mixon is out this week.
Treylon Burks, WR, Tennessee Titans: Burks was excellent in Tennessee's Week 11 win, posting the most catches (seven) and yards (111) in his young career. Tennessee will continue to be among the most run-heavy teams in the league, but if Burks can command a steady 20-25% target share, that's plenty to make him fantasy relevant. He's an ideal add-and-stash player right now given his pedigree.
Here's more of what's on our mind as we head into Week 12.
Shifting of the winds in Pittsburgh
The Steelers have a long track record of drafting and developing wide receivers, many of which were not first-round picks (Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Wallace, to name a few). The team recently traded away Chase Claypool -- a second-rounder -- and has Diontae Johnson -- a third-rounder -- on the roster as things stand. The latest hit appears to be George Pickens, the uber-talented second-round rookie out of Georgia.
Fantasy football can be a strange game to analyze at times, as there are indicators that we are drawn to that portend consistency much more than others. As far as receivers go, there's no stat I latch on to more than targets. Targets are opportunity, and opportunity x talent = fantasy production.
In two games since the Steelers traded Claypool to the Bears, Johnson and Pickens have stacked up as follows:
Johnson:
75 routes run, 10 targets, 8 catches, 84 yards
1 rush, 1 yard, for a total of 16.5 fantasy points
Pickens:
75 routes run, 10 targets, 7 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD
2 rushes, 23 yards, 1 TD, for a total of 32.8 fantasy points
The clear edge that Johnson owned early in the season was his target share, as Pickens amassed just five in the team's first two games before seeing a gradual increase. Johnson has 86 in 10 games this season, 19 more than any other Steelers player.
But with Pickens shifting into a full-time role opposite Johnson, seeing a comparable target share and offering much more big-play upside (Pickens is averaging 13.7 yards per catch, Johnson just 8.9), and the fact that Johnson has never been an overwhelmingly dominant touchdown threat (he had eight last season, a career best), it sure seems like the preferred Steelers wideout now and going forward is Pickens.
The quiet struggle of Lamar
Maybe the trickiest part of fantasy football analysis is when a star player is in a rut by his own standards, yet there's not much actionable advice to offer.
Here are Lamar Jackson's weekly finishes among QBs over his past seven games:
Week 4: 21st
Week 5: 15th
Week 6: 13th
Week 7: 20th
Week 8: 9th
Week 9: 10th
Week 11: 16th
That puts Jackson as the 15th-highest-scoring QB on a per-game basis in that stretch.
To be clear, Jackson has been far from the most disappointing quarterback in fantasy football this season. Far. Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady are all in a different zip code than Jackson, who for the season is still QB6 because he went scorched earth for the first three weeks when he was the highest-scoring quarterback in all of fantasy.
In fact, those three weeks probably only increase the concerns of the past seven games.
What has changed for Jackson? Well, finding the end zone has been a battle for Baltimore in that time, as Jackson accounted for 12 total touchdowns in the first three games and six in the seven since. He's averaging just 175 passing yards per game in that span and has as many interceptions as passing touchdowns, and while he's still dominating in rushing yards (more than 60 per game), he has just one rushing touchdown during that stretch.
The Ravens have dealt with injuries throughout the offense this season, so to pin this all on Jackson would be unfair. Oh, by the way, they're 7-3 and in pole position in the AFC North. It's not like his play is torpedoing the franchise. Without Jackson, they would not be atop the AFC North. Fact.
As far as fantasy football goes, however, it looked early in the season like Jackson might have been a powerful enough force to catalyze teams to playoff runs. In a year in which quarterback play has been well below the standard for the position, Jackson was performing at an elite level and making those who bypassed him regret it immediately.
That has proven not to be the case.
As far as what it means going forward? Jackson will still rank every week inside my top 10 for quarterback options, as he's far too talented and capable of a 30-point game for me to rank him any lower. His rushing makes him matchup agnostic and capable of being the highest-scoring player on any given Sunday.
Here's hoping that happens soon, as a dominant Jackson is one of the most exciting sights in all of football.
Rams WR follow-up ... and RB fallout
The Rams' offense has sputtered this season and faced its stiffest challenge in Week 11 when Cooper Kupp missed his first game since being placed on injured reserve. Quarterback Matthew Stafford then left the game against the Saints because of a head injury, leaving Bryce Hopkins to take over from there.
The passing offense had life early, as Stafford was sharp with 158 yards and two touchdowns prior to his injury, and frankly things shook out fairly close to expected. A few notes:
• Allen Robinson II had four catches on five targets for 47 yards and a touchdown. He is the best option of the bunch and a WR4/WR5.
• Van Jefferson also had five targets, while Ben Skowronek had four targets but turned them into just one catch for four yards. No other Rams wideout cracks my top 50 this week.
• Tyler Higbee led all Rams with eight targets, as his role should be steady as long as Kupp is out. Higbee is a top-12 tight end consideration.
We'll close things out here with a thought on the Rams' backfield, as the team waived starting back Darrell Henderson Jr. on Tuesday. The move was surprising given that Henderson has started 28 games over the past three seasons, including seven this season.
That means the Rams are down to just two running backs on the active roster in Kyren Williams and Cam Akers, the latter of whom was nearly traded earlier this season. The backfield has been in flux for much of the season, and the Rams' rushing attack has been largely anemic, averaging 76.1 yards per game, second worst in the NFL.
Akers led the team with 14 carries for 61 yards in Week 11, his best performance of the season and a decided edge over Williams' seven carries.
While this does crack the door open to Akers bringing back a bit of value, my feeling is that given the offensive line play and injuries this season, no back is certain to carry starting value in fantasy for this team. Both Akers and Williams are fine to add to your bench, in case one eventually takes on a large enough role to merit lineup consideration.