Welcome to the Week 12 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: None
One QB has failed to reach 16 fantasy points in his matchup with Las Vegas this season, and that QB is Russell Wilson. He can't be trusted.
The Broncos released Melvin Gordon III this week, which, at least for now, locks Latavius Murray into a feature back role. Murray handled 17 carries and four targets in Week 11 and should see similar (if not more) usage this week with only Marlon Mack and perhaps Devine Ozigbo in the mix for touches. Murray is an RB2 against a Carolina defense that has surrendered the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs.
D'Onta Foreman predictably stumbled in a poor game script in Baltimore last week, but he's a rebound candidate in what should be a more competitive game. Denver hasn't allowed many TDs to RBs (five), but it has allowed 4.7 yards per carry (seventh highest). Foreman is a fine flex.
Courtland Sutton has produced 146 yards on 18 targets with Jerry Jeudy out the last two weeks. That's allowed a pair of top-35 fantasy outings, though he hasn't had a top-25 week (or a TD) since Week 4. Sutton is a WR3 if Jeudy returns, but a WR2 if Jeudy is out.
DJ Moore's 2022 season has been a struggle, but he finished 10th in receiving yards and 18th in fantasy points with Sam Darnold under center in 2021. Darnold is set to make his 2022 debut this week, so perhaps Moore will rebound, though note that he's a strong candidate for Patrick Surtain II shadow coverage. Moore is a fringe WR3.
Greg Dulcich has been between three and five targets in four of his five games, but he has run a route on 76% of Denver's pass plays, which keeps him in the TE streamer discussion.
Over/Under: 31.2 (16th highest)
Win Probability: Panthers 52% (15th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Tom Brady has been in the 11-to-18-point range in five straight outings and leads the NFL with 427 pass attempts and 282 completions. That's enough to keep him in the streaming discussion.
Jacoby Brissett has delivered 16-plus fantasy points in three straight games, including last week's 324-yard, three-TD effort against the Bills. Of course, that was Brissett's first game over 300 yards and his second with more than one pass TD. He remains a QB2.
When we last saw Tampa Bay, Rachaad White drew the start and was essentially splitting the backfield with Leonard Fournette prior to Fournette suffering an injury. White ended up with 105 yards on 22 carries and, while he wasn't targeted, he's been thrown to 25 times this season and will be a factor in the pass game. Fournette figures to sustain a big role (he had 58 yards and one TD on 15 touches prior to his injury), but this is now more of a committee. Cleveland has allowed the second-most fantasy points and most TDs (16) to RBs this season, so Fournette can be viewed as a RB2 and White a flex. If Fournette is out, White will get the bulk of the work and will be a good RB2.
Kareem Hunt has been held under eight touches in four of his last five games and is not an ideal flex.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced at least 50 yards in seven straight games, and in Week 11, he scored his first TD since Week 9 of last season. Tampa Bay is pretty good against receivers though (sixth-lowest YPT allowed), so with zero teams on a bye, DPJ is more of a deep-league flex.
Over/Under: 42.9 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Browns 60% (9th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Mark Andrews
Trevor Lawrence has been a top-12 fantasy QB in four of his last five outings, but this isn't an easy matchup against a Baltimore defense that has picked it up as of late (the last QB to reach 17.5 fantasy points against them was Josh Allen in Week 4). Lawrence is a fringe streaming option.
Gus Edwards (hamstring) seems on track to return this week, and when he was active in Weeks 7-8, we saw plenty of him (39 snaps), Kenyan Drake (58) and Justice Hill (36). Edwards is the best flex option of the group if you're desperate and Drake should only be in lineups if Edwards remains out.
Zay Jones saw 10 targets last week, but his 14.8-point performance marked his first game over 10.8 points since Week 3. He's an underwhelming flex.
Demarcus Robinson has overtaken Devin Duvernay as Baltimore's No. 1 WR, and he has racked up 21 targets during the team's last three games. Robinson's 128-yard effort in Week 11 is enough to get him on the deep-league flex radar, but beware of inconsistent production in his offense.
Evan Engram has 22 yards on six targets in his last two games and is no more than a midrange TE2.
Over/Under: 45.8 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 56% (11th highest)
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Dameon Pierce, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Since Jeff Wilson Jr.'s arrival in Miami, he has produced 215 yards and two TDs on 31 touches, compared to 113 yards and two TDs on 21 touches for Raheem Mostert. Wilson has been the lead back during the two games and is the preferred RB2 play this week against a horrific Houston run defense that has allowed the most yards, TDs and fantasy points to the position. The elite matchup also positions Mostert as a flex option.
Brandin Cooks has reached 70 yards in two of his last three games, but he hasn't cleared seven targets in a game since Week 2 and he has been under 11.5 fantasy points in five straight outings (and seven of eight). Perhaps he'll be unlocked a bit by new starting QB Kyle Allen, but he's an underwhelming flex for now.
Over/Under: 43.2 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 77% (2nd highest)
Chicago Bears @ New York Jets
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, David Montgomery
Montgomery played 79% of the snaps and racked up 17 carries and four targets with Khalil Herbert out last week. He should be in lineups as long as Herbert is on IR.
Michael Carter (24 snaps), Ty Johnson (14) and James Robinson (11) shared backfield duties in Week 11 and Johnson's surprising presence just further complicates what we thought would be a two-man committee. Carter is the best flex option of the unit and he has some added appeal this week against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fourth-most TDs (14) and fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Garrett Wilson is enjoying a healthy 22% target share this season, and though he's coming off a major dud against the Patriots, perhaps life will be better with Mike White replacing Zach Wilson at quarterback. White has thrown for over 200 yards in all three full games in his career, whereas Wilson has hit that mark in one of his last five outings.
Darnell Mooney found the end zone last week and now has two scores in his last three games. He's been a top-35 fantasy WR in four of his last six outings and is a flex option despite a tough matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and third-fewest yards to WRs.
With the Bears scoring touchdowns at will, Cole Kmet has worked his way up to "TD-dependent streamer" territory. He's found the end zone in three of his last four games, but the exception was a 35-yard, 6.5-point dud in Week 11.
Tyler Conklin has 22 yards on five targets during his last two games, but gets a little boost with Wilson out and makes for a serviceable streaming option.
Over/Under: 44.2 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bears 53% (13th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Mixon left Week 11's game with a concussion, and replacement Samaje Perine promptly stepped in and produced 82 yards and three TDs on 15 touches. Perine will be a RB2 play if Mixon is out. Robert Woods (69 yards on seven targets) was solid against Green Bay last week, but it was his first game over 37 yards since Week 3. He remains a weak flex.
Treylon Burks exploded for a career-high 111 yards on eight targets in that same Week 11 game. The first-round rookie belongs on rosters, but we need to see it again before trusting him in lineups (the 18.1-point showing was his first double-digit effort).
Tyler Boyd has been held under 45 yards in three straight games, which is shocking considering Chase missed all three games and Boyd had been averaging 65.0 yards per game prior to Chase's injury. On the plus side, Boyd was targeted eight times last week, so he'll jump back to WR3 consideration if Chase remains sidelined. The Titans have allowed the third-most fantasy points and 13 TDs (third most) to WRs this season.
Hayden Hurst has been held below 45 yards and 9.0 fantasy points in three straight games and hasn't found the end zone since Week 5. He's a TE2.
Over/Under: 44 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 67% (6th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
Lineup locks: Terry McLaurin
After opening his season with three-straight top-15 fantasy outings, Taylor Heinicke has been held to single-digit point totals in tougher matchups the last two weeks. He's in a better spot this week against a Falcons' defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points and a 7.6 YPA (fifth highest) to QBs this season. Heinicke lacks a high ceiling, but he's a streaming option in deeper leagues.
Antonio Gibson held the edge over Brian Robinson Jr. in snaps (45 to 23), carries (18 to 15) and targets (3 to 0) in Week 11, which helps cement him as the better RB2 play. Gibson has produced 13-plus fantasy points in four of his last five games, whereas Robinson (who has four career targets) has hit that mark once in seven games this season.
Cordarrelle Patterson's fantasy day was bailed out by a rare return TD in Week 11, but he's still been held below 15 touches and 60 yards in four-straight games. Atlanta's four-man RB committee, coupled with Patterson's minimal receiving workload (11 targets in seven games) limits him to flex territory, especially against a Washington defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest yards to RBs.
Curtis Samuel has found the end zone in two of his last three outings, but he's been held below 13 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. And that was with Jahan Dotson out for five weeks during the stretch. This is a great matchup (Atlanta has allowed the second-most fantasy points and most catches to WRs), but Samuel is no more than a flex flier in deep leagues.
Drake London has scored a TD in consecutive games, but he's been held to 40 or fewer yards in nine-straight games, including a 2-yard effort in Week 11. He shouldn't be in lineups.
Logan Thomas produced a season-high 65 yards on six targets last week and his marching back toward the streaming discussion.
Over/Under: 39.9 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 52% (14th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Marquise Brown (foot) has a shot to return this week, but he's unlikely to see the 10.8 targets per game he was seeing prior to Hopkins' season debut. Consider Brown a WR3 until we see how things sort out.
Rondale Moore (groin) is also dicey for this week and his usage will take a hit if Brown returns. Consider him a WR3/flex if able to go.
The Chargers have similar WR question marks after Mike Williams aggravated his ankle injury last week. Joshua Palmer has seen eight-plus targets in four straight and caught eight-plus passes and scored 14-plus fantasy points in three of those games. Palmer will be more appealing as a WR2/3 if Williams is out.
Gerald Everett hasn't reached 12 fantasy points in a game since Week 4, but he does have seven-plus targets and five-plus catches in three of his last four games. He gets a boost this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the most catches, yards, TDs (nine) and fantasy points to TEs.
Over/Under: 44 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 51% (16th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker III, Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Geno Smith has produced 18-plus fantasy points in six of his last eight games and has at least two TDs in eight of 10 games this season. He's a terrific streamer this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed 16-plus fantasy points to the opposing QB in all but one game this season.
Derek Carr has been a top-15 fantasy QB in five of his last six games, but the man simply lacks upside, having yet to clear 20.3 points in a game. He's best as a solid QB2.
Foster Moreau has cleared five targets in one game this season and hasn't reached 50 yards in a game since last season. He's only a streaming option this week because the Seahawks have surrendered the second-most yards and fantasy points to TEs this season.
Noah Fant has been held under 8.0 fantasy points in eight of 10 games this season and -- same as Moreau -- he's scored only one TD. Fant is a mid-range TE2.
Over/Under: 48.8 (Highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (8th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce
Clyde Edwards-Helaire was placed on IR, which locks in Isiah Pacheco as the Chiefs' primary rusher and Jerick McKinnon as the lead in passing situations. Pacheco has 15-plus carries and 80-plus yards in consecutive games, but he has zero targets during the span and he's yet to deliver a top-20 fantasy outing. He's a TD-dependent flex and has more value in non-PPR formats. McKinnon is also without a top-20 fantasy outing this season and has yet to clear 10 touches in a game. He's an underwhelming flex.
The Rams waived Darrell Henderson Jr. (four snaps in Week 11) this week, which sets up Cam Akers (14 carries, zero targets last week) and Kyren Williams (seven carries, two targets) as the team's top backs, though we could see Ronnie Rivers mixed in as well. Akers has yet to clear 10.1 fantasy points in a game this season, and he's a long shot for consistent fantasy production in the Rams' struggling offense. The same goes for Williams, who has 83 yards on 12 touches in two games.
Cooper Kupp (IR) was out last week and the Rams' WR usage was as follows: Ben Skowronek (24 routes, four targets), Allen Robinson II (29 routes, five targets), Van Jefferson (27 routes, five targets), others (three targets on 12 routes). Robinson scored a TD, but was held to 47 yards and it was otherwise an ugly showing from the trio. Especially with Matthew Stafford likely out this week, it's hard to trust any of these receivers, even against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points and most TDs (14) to the position.
Tyler Higbee has bounced back with eight targets in consecutive games and three of Bryce Perkins' nine aimed throws went his direction last week. Higbee should see just enough volume to allow back-end TE1 production.
Over/Under: 44.1 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 92% (Highest)
New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Jimmy Garoppolo posted his first top-five fantasy outing of the season last week and he has now delivered 15-plus points in six straight outings. He has emerged as a streaming option, though note that his four-TD effort in Week 11 was his first game with more than two TDs since Week 6 of 2020 (seriously). A lot of the QB production the Saints have allowed has come on the ground, so pocket passer Garoppolo isn't an ideal QB1.
Chris Olave is coming off a strong 5-102-1 outing, but note that he was held to six targets after seeing five in Week 10. That's a dip from the 10.0 per game he averaged during the prior seven games and can likely be traced to the return of Jarvis Landry in Week 10. Olave isn't quite a lineup lock and best valued as a WR3.
Brandon Aiyuk produced 80-plus yards in four-straight games prior to his 2-TD effort in Week 11. Aiyuk was only targeted four times, however, and has been under eight targets in three straight and five of his last seven. He's a solid WR3.
Landry found the end zone last week, but he has been targeted 10 times in two games since his return from injury and hasn't cleared 40 yards in a game since Week 1. He's a weak flex.
Juwan Johnson entered Week 7 with four career TDs. He now has nine after scoring five times in as many games. Johnson has yet to reach 50 yards in a game, however, and he's averaging 4.3 targets per game. Consider the former WR a fine TE2.
Over/Under: 42.3 (11th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 64% (7th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Aaron Jones, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown
Aaron Rodgers last reached 20 fantasy points in a game in Week 17 of last season. He's trending up a little (five TDs in his last two games), but we can't trust him against an Eagles defense that has yet to allow a QB over 16.2 fantasy points in a single game this season.
Allen Lazard has reached double-digit targets in two of his last three games and is averaging 8.1 per game since Week 4. He continues to deliver WR2 production and should be in lineups even in a tough matchup.
The same goes for new running mate Christian Watson, who has scored five TDs in his last two games. The rookie has played 95% of the snaps during the span and should continue to see six to eight targets per game. He's a WR3.
DeVonta Smith remains a boom/bust WR3 play, but he has now put together two consecutive solid performances, with a TD on eight targets in Week 10 and 78 yards on nine targets last week.
Over/Under: 42.3 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 77% (3rd highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Pat Freiermuth
Najee Harris is arguably a lineup lock this week with Jaylen Warren likely out. Harris has 20 carries in consecutive games and matched a season high with six targets last week (he also scored two TDs).
Parris Campbell produced 67 yards last week, and he's now averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game in Matt Ryan's last four starts. Campbell has a terrific matchup this week against a Steelers defense that has allowed the most yards, TDs and fantasy points to WRs this season. He's a WR3.
100% of the WR units that have faced the Colts this season have scored below their season fantasy point total average. This week, that's bad news for the Steelers' wideouts.
Diontae Johnson's rough season continues, as he's been held to five targets in two straight games and has now failed to clear 11.0 fantasy points in seven consecutive outings. Johnson, who has yet to score a TD this season, is a fringe WR3.
George Pickens has scored in two straight games, but he has a total of 10 targets during the span. Consider him a flex.
Over/Under: 34.6 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 57% (10th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Devin Singletary has played at least 70% of the snaps in five consecutive games, but we're seeing more work for James Cook (11 touches, one target last week), and Nyheim Hines' role will only grow moving forward. Singletary, who has three TDs in his last two games, is best viewed as a RB2/flex against a Detroit defense that has been better against RBs as of late.
The Lions are utilizing a three-player committee, with Jamaal Williams (17 carries and zero targets on 30 snaps), Justin Jackson (nine carries and one target on 24 snaps) and D'Andre Swift (five carries and three targets on 20 snaps) all playing a role. Williams is a TD-scoring machine (five games with at least two), but the lack of passing-down work limits his consistency. Swift hasn't cleared 50 yards in a game since Week 2. The two backs are best viewed as a flex options against a good Bills defense.
Gabe Davis' target share has jumped to 23% (7.3 per game) over the last four weeks, and he's set up with a good matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points and third-most yards to WRs this season. He's a WR2/3.
DJ Chark was limited to 10 snaps in his return from IR in Week 11, so he can't be trusted as a flex option just yet.
Dawson Knox is trending up, with either a TD or 57-plus yards in four of his last five outings. That's enough to get him into the TE1 mix, especially against a Lions defense that sits top-5 in yards, TDs (seven) and fantasy points allowed to the position.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Dak Prescott has reeled off three straight top-10 fantasy outings, having thrown seven TDs during the span. The Giants have yet to allow a single QB to reach 20 fantasy points in a game this season, however, so Prescott is best viewed as a fringe QB1.
Daniel Jones has produced 18-plus fantasy points in three of his last four games and sits no lower than fifth at QB in carries, rush yards and rush TDs. This is a tough matchup, though, as Dallas has allowed the fewest pass yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to QBs, while also pacing the league with 42 sacks. Jones is best left on benches on Thursday.
Tony Pollard exploded for a career-high 36.9 fantasy points in Sunday's 40-3 blowout of Minnesota and has found his way past Ezekiel Elliott and into the weekly RB2 mix. Elliott is going to remain a factor (he has 14-plus touches in seven straight games and five TDs in his last three outings), which will limit Pollard's output most weeks. Elliott, by the way, is a fringe RB2 against a Giants' defense that has allowed 5.3 yards per carry to RBs this season (second highest).
Darius Slayton has produced at least 58 yards and 11.6 fantasy points in five of his last six games and sits 33rd at WR in fantasy PPG during the span. Especially with Wan'Dale Robinson on IR, Slayton deserves weekly WR3 consideration.
The Giants have major CB personnel concerns (Adoree' Jackson and Fabian Moreau are out this week), but we still can't trust Michael Gallup, who hasn't cleared 50 yards or 8.9 fantasy points since Week 4.
New England Patriots @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
Damien Harris produced 93 scrimmage yards last week, but he was limited to 15 snaps and hasn't scored a TD since Week 4. With Stevenson the clear No. 1 back and without much of a passing-game role, Harris is no more than a deep-league dart throw at flex.
Jakobi Meyers has posted back-to-back duds, falling short of 55 yards in both and seeing a grand total of 12 targets during the span. This is a great matchup, though (Minnesota has allowed the second-most catches and yards, as well as the fifth-most fantasy points to WRs), so Meyers finds himself in the WR2 discussion.
Adam Thielen has seen seven-plus targets in eight of his last nine games, but he has been held below 10 fantasy points in three straight and this is a very tough matchup against a Patriots defense that has yet to allow a single WR to score over 18 fantasy points in a game this season. Thielen is an uninspiring flex.