Every Thursday during the 2022 NFL season, Matt Bowen will break down players' fantasy football value through the lens of a former NFL safety. And he'll mix it up, too. The matchups to play (or avoid), scheme trends, tape study and more.
For me, this is the best week of the NFL season. It's a full slate of games. We get three on Thanksgiving, too. And those are pretty good matchups. So, let's get to the tape with my fantasy upgrades and downgrades for Week 12, plus a couple players to monitor. And we'll finish with more notes from the film room.
I'm starting here with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who is producing in Kyle Shanahan's schemed-up pass game.
Upgrades for Week 12
Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, San Francisco 49ers
With six straight games of 15 or more fantasy points, Garoppolo's higher floor puts him in the weekly mix as a top streaming option. But I think there's more upside here for Garoppolo in Week 12 versus a Saints defense allowing an average of 17.2 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. He's thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last six starts, and we know how heavily schemed this 49ers pass game is under Kyle Shanahan. Lot of play-action, along with the catch and run targets for one of the NFL's top skill groups. And Shanahan will have pass game answers for New Orleans' single-high man coverages, plus their two-deep shells. You can start Jimmy G this week.
Gabe Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
You can roll with Davis on Thanksgiving Day versus the Lions. The Bills wide receiver has seen an uptick in production over the last two weeks here, catching 11-of-17 targets - with a touchdown grab -- for 161 yards. And we have to focus on this matchup versus a Detroit defense allowing an average of 38.3 fantasy points to opposing receivers -- the sixth most in the league. The Lions still register a Top 5 man-coverage rate, and we will see some Cover 2 also. Opportunities for quarterback Josh Allen to stretch the top of the secondary on vertical concepts. Take the outside one-on-ones with Davis here. And don't forget about the schemed throws to create windows on the deep in-breakers. Davis is a WR2 in my ranks this week.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
I know the matchup versus the Colts tells us to push Pickens down in the ranks. I get it. Indy is allowing an average of just 25.1 fantasy points to opposing wide outs. That's the best in the NFL. But if you play in deeper leagues, I don't think you can keep Pickens out of the lineup. The rookie has posted 14 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. The physical profile jumps here too, and we can see Pickens' ability to win one-on-ones. Plus, let's not forget that rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett is playing with some poise in the pocket. In my 12-team home league, Pickens will be my WR3 because of the upside he can bring to the lineup.
Downgrades for Week 12
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
We need to temper our expectations for Kamara against a 49ers defense in Week 12 that has really limited opposing running backs this season, allowing just 3.37 yards per carry and 16.7 fantasy points per game. And since Kamara's breakout game in Week 8 versus a sub-par Raiders defense (42.8 PPR points), the Saints running back has failed to top the 13 point PPR mark in three straight games. Kamara should always be in your lineup, but I have him ranked this week as a mid-tier RB2. Tough matchup versus the second-level speed of the 49ers defense.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fournette took a hit in my Week 12 ranks due to the production we saw from Rachaad White the last time the Bucs were on the field (Week 10). White got that start in that game, Fournette left with an injury and the rookie running back logged 105 yards rushing - on 22 carries. The tape was really good, too. White played with some juice. With the expectation that both backs factor into Tampa's Week 12 game plan versus Cleveland, Fournette slips down to the lower-tier RB2/Flex range here.
Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants
I roster Jones in two of my home leagues as a matchup based starter. Played him last week, when Jones posted 24.64 fantasy points on the Lions defense - in a matchup where game flow dictated a major boost in throwing volume for the Giants quarterback (season-high 44 passing attempts). Jones will be back on my bench this week, however, for the Thanksgiving Day game against the Dallas defense. The Cowboys held Jones to 13.74 fantasy points back in Week 3 and are allowing just 12.7 points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. Jones slides to my QB18 this week due to a Dallas pass rush that can scheme pressure and one-on-ones.
Players to monitor in Week 12
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
The rookie running back averaged five yards per carry (on seven rushing attempts) in the Rams Week 11 game versus the Saints, while leading the LA backfield with 35 snaps. And Williams has logged four receptions in his last two games. He could be an emerging player for a team that is still trying to establish a run game identity this season. Williams and the Rams get the Chiefs in Week 12.
Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
With multiple injuries in the Chiefs wide receiver room, Moore played valuable reps in the Chiefs Week 11 win over the Chargers, posting a season-high 11.3 PPR points. The rookie caught 5-of-6 targets in this one, and we know he can work the second-level of the route tree, with the ability to shift gears after the catch. Let's keep an eye on the injury reports this week in Kansas City.
More notes from the tape
The pass game deployment of 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey will continue to create conflict for opposing defenses. He's a multiple alignment player in Kyle Shanahan's route tree. CMC has logged 19 receptions in his last three games.
I would continue to bet on Packers rookie wide receiver Christian Watson. He's the one-on-one target for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. My WR32 this week, the rookie has five touchdowns in his last two games. And I want to see him match up to the Eagles corners this week. Good test.
We don't see the high-level second-reaction plays from Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson much anymore. And that has really lowered his fantasy floor in Denver.
Derrick Henry's goal line "jump pass" was one of the best calls of Week 11 in the NFL. When Henry gets the ball on the doorstep of the end zone, everyone in the stadium is playing downhill. Henry is my RB5 for the Sunday matchup versus the Bengals.
I want to see if the Cowboys scheme more targets for running back Tony Pollard on Thanksgiving versus the Giants. He's a true matchup player in the pass game -- with the open field acceleration to create after the catch. I have Pollard ranked as a mid-tier RB2 this week.
The Eagles QB run schemes (and RPOs) in the low red zone are some of the best in the NFL, which boosts the fantasy profile of Jalen Hurts. The Eagles quarterback has rushed for a touchdown in each of his last two games.
I wrote about Treylon Burks in my streaming pickups column this week at ESPN. That breakout game versus the Packers last week confirmed what we saw on Burks' college tape at Arkansas. He has the physical traits, plus the play speed, to produce in the Titans route structure.
I think Tua Tagovailoa can light up the Texans' defense this week. Timing and rhythm throws to attack zone windows. He's my QB3 for the Sunday matchup.
We'll have to monitor the injury status of Bears quarterback Justin Fields this week (shoulder). But if he can go on Sunday versus the Jets, look for the QB Sweep concept when the Bears get the ball into the red zone. That's become a staple call for this Chicago offense.
Saints rookie wide receiver Chris Olave can float past defenders on deep ball throws. We just need to see more of those vertical shot plays with Andy Dalton at quarterback.