Now that one full turn of most teams' rotations (save the Mets and Nationals) are in the books, we've had (at least) one appearance's look at each starting pitcher's skill set -- albeit in a very tiny sample. Still, there is indeed a starter out there who warrants your attention following his first trip to the mound, and he heads up Wednesday's list of three to add.
Scoop up these three players now in your fantasy league, and consider trading away the player listed at column's end:
1. Drew Smyly, SP, Atlanta Braves: It might seem absurd to sink mixed-league stock into a pitcher who had a 6.24 ERA as a regular starter two seasons ago and made only five starts last year, but Smyly's skills stand out among the pitchers currently in major league rotations who are available in more than 80% of ESPN leagues. A member of my preseason Kings of Command, Smyly continued to showcase the excellent signs of growth cited in that column during spring training, striking out 16-of-57 batters faced while posting 36.0% swinging-strike and 52.4% called-strike rates. Those percentages ranked third- and eighth-best overall, given a minimum of 100 pitches, which is exactly how many Smyly threw.
While none of Smyly's four spring starts were at a Statcast-equipped ballpark, his 2021 regular-season debut was. In that Tuesday outing, he maintained the elevated fastball velocity he showed in 2020 (a 92.8 mph average) as well as the hefty usage (41.5%) of his strike-'em-out curveball, responsible for five of hit eight whiffs.
Again, health will be the primary roadblock Smyly must clear, but with starting pitching workloads down league-wide through the first week of 2021, it's wise to lean heavily into skills anywhere you can. He might well be able to deliver you upward of 12.5 K/9 in the starts he's able to make.
2. Luis Arraez, 2B, Minnesota Twins: Opportunity knocks for this contact king. The unexpected, late-spring demotion of Alex Kirilloff, coupled with the Opening Day injury to Josh Donaldson, has thrust Arraez into a more prominent role. He has led off in all five Twins games, playing three times at third base, once in left field, and now Tuesday at second base (with usual shortstop Andrelton Simmons getting a day off and Jorge Polanco shifting to his former position).
The lone caveat here is that all five came against right-handed pitchers, meaning we haven't yet gotten a read as to whether a guy with a lifetime .265 batting average and an .018 ISO against lefties will occupy that generous lineup spot against same-handed starters. Considering that Arraez does have a .382 OBP against left-handers, and given his hot start to 2021, perhaps he has locked it up.
Those who criticize Arraez for "empty batting average" are underestimating the weight of his fantasy contributions. No, he's not remotely a power contributor, with only 10 home runs in eight professional seasons -- which also limits what he can offer in terms of RBI -- but it's rare to find a hitter with 90.1% contact and 33.7% line drive rates for his career. Those are things that would make him a bona fide batting-title contender if he gets the requisite playing time. Slotting him in at leadoff inflates his run-scoring potential (an often underrated fantasy category) in the potent Twins lineup. And then there's the fact he has already generated hard contact on 8-of-13 batted balls. It's a promising sign.
3. Manuel Margot, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Speaking of opportunity, Margot saw his window opened considerably with Tuesday's news that Kevin Kiermaier will miss 2-3 weeks with a quadriceps strain. Margot has already made starts at all three outfield spots, as well as in the Nos. 2, 4, 5 and 7 spots in the lineup, all within the Rays' first five games. He's now much more likely to occupy the everyday center field role and a heart-of-the-order lineup spot. As a bonus, he's still currently available in 62.2% of ESPN leagues.
A fantasy disappointment in his first five big-league seasons, Margot has shown hints of skills improvements thus far (admittedly in a small sample) in 2021. He cut his chase rate (swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone) to 19.2% in his Statcast-tracked spring plate appearances and 20.8% in his first five regular-season games. Both of those are easily better than his 25.7% career big-league mark. He also has hit grounders only 41.5% of the time between the spring and the regular season (44.7% career mark) and he has made hard contact on 52.0% of his batted balls (spring included, for 25 total tracked).
Maybe a fresh start in a new organization and an actual opportunity to play will restore his previously expected 15-homer, 25-steal potential? Based on the dearth of steals in today's game, he's surely worth a stash until we find out for sure.
Consider shopping...
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: There might not have been a more properly categorized "risk/reward player," nor one who saw a wider range of opinions entering 2021's fantasy draft season -- at least among the players judged to be outside the overall top 100 -- than Buxton. His 2020 was full of statistical weirdness: 13 home runs, three shy of his single-year best (16, 2017) in only 135 trips to the plate; two walks all year; and only a 2-of-3 performance stealing bases by one of the game's fastest players, with the modest number of attempts largely the product of so many of his hits clearing the fence combined with that minuscule walk total.
Buxton matched his 2020 full-year walk total in a mere six PAs this year. He's already halfway to his 2020 stolen base total and he has three homers in 12 total PAs, all of them no-doubters. That "hot start" will certainly "vindicate" those who selected him earlier than ESPN's No. 114 ADP -- and there seemed to be at least one person willing to do just that in every league, as his NFBC high-point selection of 55 in March indicated. That said, the truth is that he's one of the players for whom you should never heavily weight any small sample.
There's no denying Buxton is a stronger -- not better, just stronger -- hitter than he was in the past and, given full health, a 25/25 season is well within his reach. The problem is that for him to do this, he'll also have to give you streakiness, considering his free-swinging nature, a so-so batting average, a simply bad on-base percentage and the constant risk of another IL stint.
If there's a Buxton believer in your league, find that individual now, as there might be no better time to trade him away in exchange for an overall top-75 type -- one with greater probability to actually finish the season within that range. For example, I'd deal Buxton straight up for Teoscar Hernandez in an instant if that trade were available to me today.