Happy Opening Day!
For as much excitement as the first day of a new season brings, your mission as a fantasy baseball manager is far from over. For those who haven't yet drafted (many old-school leagues hold their draft on the first weekend after Opening Day, and ESPN leagues are still wide-open for signups), there's still important prep work to do. The next 183 days will provide an ultimate test, with unexpected twists and turns that demand reactions with your own teams. Opportunities to improve your roster never cease, and it's often the fantasy manager who is most active during the season that ultimately captures the championship.
Add/drops (players you can freely pick up via free agency) are generally the best route to improvement. Here's a handy tip: In ESPN leagues, you can stash players of your choosing on a Watch List, which can help expedite the process when your team is in urgent need of free-agent help. The list itself can be found under the Players menu within your league, and you can add names to it by selecting the flag icon next to the player's name on the free-agent list.
With the new season upon us, let's toss out some names which you can add to that Watch List. These are players who might provide significant contributions in mixed leagues, either with a hot start to 2021 and/or an expansion of their playing time. These "deep sleepers" aren't quite yet relevant in ESPN standard mixed leagues, but they could become so quickly. If your league has yet to hold its draft, any of these players could be viable late- or final-round picks in leagues of appropriate depth.
Logan Allen, RP, Cleveland: He's listed as a "relief pitcher" because that was his 2020 role, but the left-hander is set to begin 2021 as the team's No. 4 starter. That's a big statement, considering it meant higher-profile Triston McKenzie would wait until the date the team first needs a fifth man. Allen is not the lefty who was selected in the 2020 draft's second round. (Yes, there are two pitchers named Logan Allen in the Cleveland system.) No, he's one of the prospects acquired by the team in the July 2019 three-team Trevor Bauer trade. This Allen had an eye-popping Cactus League run that concluded with a 0.64 ERA in 14 innings and strikeouts of 18 out of 52 total batters faced. A few adjustments contributed to this success. Allen entered spring training 35 pounds lighter, committed the early weeks to polishing his delivery, and added polish and more downward break to his slider. All of these things put him in a much better position to break out in 2021. Cleveland might utilize him in a "follower" role this year, à la Ryan Yarbrough in 2018-19, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. It could improve Allen's win potential -- I expect a marked boost in wins going to pitchers who record their team's 15th out of the game, as organizations look to rein in workloads -- maximizing his fantasy contribution in the innings he does give you.
Adbert Alzolay, SP, Chicago Cubs: Between his spring numbers and the news that the Cubs were granted an additional minor-league option on the right-hander, the fact that Alzolay earned a rotation spot to begin the season had to be considered a surprise. The seeds are there for a breakthrough, however, as the slider he added to his repertoire in 2020 generated one of the highest called-strike rates in the game (40.0%, a top-10 number). All reports from spring training on the pitch's progression were positive. The Cubs are sure to keep his workload in check, as he hasn't exceeded 100 innings pitched since 2017 or 120 1/3 in any professional year, but even his delivering 120-140 frames or sliding into a swingman role could result in 150-plus strikeouts at a dirt cheap fantasy cost. Alzolay is a key pitcher to track during these opening weeks.
Randy Dobnak, SP, Minnesota Twins: He's a name in the news, having agreed to a long-term extension on Sunday, but once fantasy managers hear the additional note that he's bullpen-bound to begin 2021, they tend to think, "Move along, nothing to see here." That would be a mistake, as Dobnak's spring concluded with 19 K's and zero walks in 55 batters faced -- fueled by a boost in the performance of his slider. Though only his Tuesday start came in a Statcast-equipped ballpark, the right-hander's slider showed greater spin and break than in seasons past, an adjustment that might provide the key to elevating what was a 15.7% strikeout rate through parts of two big-league seasons. Dobnak has already shown great control (a 5.7% career walk rate) and a heavy ground-ball lean (58.8% rate). If he's finally able to miss the occasional bat, he could break through as one of the game's most valuable long men. Plus, there's a chance he'll contribute even more, as he'll surely be first in line for any rotational vacancies.
Jonathan India, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: He'll be eligible at third base initially, but is projected to play second base regularly, meaning a quick dual-eligibility that will improve your roster flexibility. India might not possess any one elite skill, but the collective whole is certainly above-average, and he drew raves for his work at the team's alternate training site in 2020. He brings a patient approach to the plate and had a 76.6% contact rate in a 34-game try in Double-A ball to conclude 2019. He batted .313/.441/.604 in 59 spring plate appearances while playing solid defense at second base. The Reds surely wouldn't put India on the roster if they didn't intend to play him regularly right away, and in a ballpark as power-friendly as theirs, he might fall into 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases fairly easily.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Toronto Blue Jays: The news that he made the team's Opening Day roster was cause for celebration from the "go cheap at catcher" crowd, as the 22-year-old massively out-hit his competition at the position (Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire) during spring training, slashing .292/.333/.583 in 27 trips to the plate. It wasn't a spring mirage, either, as Kirk is a .315/.418/.500 career minor-league hitter with 14.4% walk and 88.4% contact rates. He also held his own in seven regular-season and one Division Series start to conclude 2020. Kirk isn't an all-hit, no-glove catcher, either, as durability has long been the more relevant question surrounding the 5-foot-8, 265-pound backstop. If he continues to hit at anywhere near the rates he has, he might yet run away with the Blue Jays' starting job. Certainly he has one of the highest statistical floors of any backup catcher, which is more than enough to make him a safety-net No. 2 option in leagues that require two.
Tim Locastro, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks: It's not hyperbole to call him the quickest man in Major League Baseball as he's the two-time defending Statcast Sprint Speed champion. Locastro, at a casual glance, has the look of a no-hit, all-run pinch runner/late-inning defensive replacement type. However, unlike many of that type in the past, he's better at getting on base. He had a 7.2% career walk rate in Triple-A ball and a 6.9% mark in the majors thus far, but more importantly, he has 27 career HBP in the bigs, due to a stance that places him right up against the plate. Locastro has done enough in part-time play to convince the Diamondbacks to test him out as a right-handed part of an outfield platoon initially, and he's going extremely late for a player with genuine 30-steal ability.
Josh Rojas, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks: If not Locastro, then it's Rojas who should certainly be in line for a hefty boost in playing time at the onset of 2021 while Kole Calhoun (knee) heals -- especially after the Diamondbacks recently demoted Daulton Varsho. Rojas paced all of spring training in hits (24) and was tied for second in total bases (41). Since his team played in a Statcast-equipped facility, we also know that he managed one of the highest average exit velocities (95.3 mph) and a 54.8% hard-hit rate (17-of-31 balls in play). He'll probably begin 2021 on the strong side of a second base platoon, but might even get everyday play and the occasional start at shortstop, should Nick Ahmed (knee) need an opening-week IL stint. Rojas had the kind of spring training stats you shouldn't instantly discard.
Logan Webb, SP, San Francisco Giants: After a pair of underwhelming first two big-league seasons, Webb excelled during spring training over five starts, posting a 0.53 ERA, 22 K's and just two walks in 61 batters faced. Credit the adjustments he made to his pitch repertoire, as he has leaned more on the cutter that he introduced in 2020, while adding movement to a changeup (which had already been his most effective pitch last season) that appears to have developed into a true "out" pitch. Webb earned the No. 3 slot in the Giants rotation and, with a pitching-friendly home ballpark helping his cause, he could quickly become a mainstay in fantasy lineups should his adjustments continue into the regular season.