The 2021 season got a head start on its annually anticipated closer turnover, with as many as six bullpens seeing a change from their start-of-spring projected closers over the past week. If you play in a league that separates the player pool into single league (AL or NL) universes, the impact was especially dramatic in AL-only leagues, where three of the 15 teams had their ninth-inning decisions impacted by injuries. Not that it's uncommon at this time of year, but the RP position saw the most ranking/ADP (Average Draft Position) changes during the March 19-26 week -- and many of them were dramatic shifts.
The closer news from the Toronto Blue Jays was the most impactful. Kirby Yates, fantasy baseball's No. 2 relief pitcher just two short years ago and a pitcher signed to a one-year, $5.5 million contract to work the ninth inning, succumbed to season-ending Tommy John surgery on Wednesday after battling elbow/forearm woes for much of the past seven months. Yates' absence paved the way for Jordan Romano (declared by pitching coach Pete Walker just two days before Yates' surgery to be a "closer in the making") to assume the ninth-inning role. However, manager Charlie Montoyo did counter shortly afterward that he wouldn't actually name a closer initially.
Montoyo's words will help keep Romano's fantasy price tag in check -- something we certainly appreciate -- and perhaps the manager will be a man of his word, going committee-style and including Rafael Dolis, David Phelps and Tyler Chatwood in the mix. That said, as I wrote earlier this week, Romano's spring adjustments affirm his being an ideal fit for the role. Romano is now my RP15. He has a top-eight positional ceiling and, on average, he has gone 12th among relievers in NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) leagues since Tuesday.
Moving 22 miles south (which is how far apart they're playing for at least for the month of April), the Tampa Bay Rays got bad news late Thursday night on Nick Anderson, who was widely presumed to be the top option at the head of a projected closer-by-committee. News broke that the pitcher has a partially torn ligament in his elbow that will cost him at least 50% of the season.
While the Rays are perfectly happy to pick matchups for every single batter faced -- they matched a major-league record with 12 different pitchers recording a save in what was only a 60-game season -- Anderson's absence places more of the late-inning burden on Diego Castillo (who most commonly "closed" during the 2020 postseason) and Peter Fairbanks. They are now my RP29 and RP32, respectively, though Fairbanks' 98-mph heat and 30%-or-so strikeout rate look particularly attractive at that price point.
Beyond the AL East
The Texas Rangers also lost their projected closer, Jose Leclerc, diagnosed with elbow soreness on Monday and now out indefinitely. He joined Jonathan Hernandez (UCL), the projected next-in-line, on the shelf, leaving the team's bullpen in disarray. Non-roster invitee (and a top-20 closer from 2019) Ian Kennedy is the most logical replacement, though Matt Bush has drawn favorable spring reports and is also in the mix. They are now my RP48 and RP53, though greater clarity on how the role will be handled -- manager Chris Woodward has already hinted at a committee -- in advance of Opening Day could thrust either into the positional top 40.
Tom Withers of the Associated Press tweeted on Tuesday about Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona's "high praise" for reliever Nick Wittgren, whose 1.11 spring WHIP easily bests presumed closer James Karinchak's 1.63. Karinchak's raw stuff is superior to Wittgren's, keeping him in my positional top 10 (RP10), but there's a very real chance that Wittgren (now RP38) is closing on Opening Day.
Mounting evidence that Emilio Pagan will capture the closer role for the San Diego Padres come Opening Day, coupled with Drew Pomeranz's mid-spring forearm issues, has narrowed the gap between the two: Pagan is now my RP27 while Pomeranz is RP23, although the latter holds the slim advantage primarily due to the ERA/WHIP/K's contribution he provides in ESPN's standard format with daily transactions. I still view the Padres as a perfect committee bullpen (2021's version of the 2020 Rays) and both pitchers plus Mark Melancon (RP41) are worth stashing for speculative saves.
Jose Alvarado's brilliant spring might make the closer decision difficult for the Philadelphia Phillies -- if not come Opening Day, then early in the regular season. He has soared to RP50, and would be a top-20 positional option if installed as a regular in the ninth inning.
Jordan Hicks' command hasn't been sharp and his velocity is not quite where it was pre-June 2019 Tommy John surgery, but it sure looks like the St. Louis Cardinals intend to install him at closer. I'm a little more lukewarm on him than most. He checks in as the RP16 in NFBC drafts during the past week. I have nevertheless moved him to RP19, with Giovanny Gallegos dropping to a still-good-value RP33.
Just as we did last week, let's take a quick stroll around the league, examining the news and draft trends you can exploit in this critical final spring training weekend.
On the mound
Zac Gallen's hairline stress fracture in his right forearm, which has no firm recovery timetable, presents this weekend's "well, gosh, I just don't know" valuation conundrum. It's my guess that lowering him to SP28 is the proper correction. For additional perspectives, his NFBC ADP since Wednesday is SP32, and his ADP has dropped by 11.6 (fifth-most among starting pitchers) during the past week. I'm certainly fading him at anything at or greater than that price for now.
Dylan Bundy's upward move to SP33 is more about my deeper dive into his numbers than anything newsworthy. His velocity drop over the past couple of years has always bothered me, but he has done an outstanding job polishing his other pitches to make up for it.
Shohei Ohtani has been one of the most buzzworthy players of spring training, thanks to his five home runs and near-100-mph fastball velocities. Word that he should be built up to 95 pitches come Opening Day, while working on routine rest as one of the Los Angeles Angels' six starters means he could get the occasional two-start week (if say, he goes Monday and Sunday in a seven-game week). This has earned him a rankings bump for the second consecutive Friday, to DH5 and SP36. In ESPN leagues, he enjoyed the largest ADP improvement of any SP-eligible player during the past week (up 18.5, to 95th overall), and our standard format is the precise one where there's a legitimate case that he's worth that early a selection.
Mike Soroka is now out of my top-50 starting pitchers, checking in at SP53, not because I have greater concern about his ability but rather that he's simply not built up to join the Opening Day rotation. A 25-27 start cap is probably in order.
Jordan Montgomery, now my SP62, is one of the players I had wanted to squeeze into my Tuesday spring-stats column, though his adjustments weren't as prominent as some of the others listed. Nevertheless, he has maintained his improved fastball velocity of 2020. He has also thrown the pitch more often and appears more confident in his five-pitch selection thus far.
Speaking of the New York Yankees' rotation, Domingo German's outstanding spring (nine scoreless innings with 13 K's) has cemented his status as the team's fifth starter ahead of Deivi Garcia, elevating German to SP71 and pushing Garcia down to SP135. Garcia's ceiling is too limited to make him a stash in anything but an AL-only league.
Tarik Skubal earned a spot in the Detroit Tigers' rotation, while Casey Mize appears to be on the outside looking in, effectively swapping their fantasy stock from where it was at the onset of spring training. Skubal, now my SP83 and a bona fide final-round ESPN standard league stash, has gotten six swinging and six called strikes on 33 Statcast-tracked instances of his polished changeup this spring. Mize is now outside my top-125 starting pitchers and is a mere AL-only reserve.
The Milwaukee Brewers announced late Thursday that it will be Freddy Peralta -- and not Josh Lindblom -- who claims the final spot in their rotation. It's possible Peralta won't be tasked with pitching deep into games -- his "3-5 inning dynamo" status was the reason for his late-round, mixed-league appeal -- but it's news that certainly warrants vaulting the RP-eligible-only hurler into what would be top-60 fantasy starter status.
All around the infield
The Arizona Diamondbacks' decision to demote catcher-eligible Daulton Varsho to Triple-A Reno on Wednesday was deflating to hopeful fantasy managers, who anticipated 12-15 steals from a position that traditionally doesn't see those numbers. He lacks the elite ceiling, unfortunately, to warrant a stash in shallow mixed leagues, and has dropped to C20. NFBC drafters concur, as his ADP there has been C22 since Thursday.
Depending upon where you stood with Andrew Vaughn's projected 2021 role entering the week, he might have been among the players whose fantasy stock improved the most during the past three days. First there was the Wednesday column by USA Today's Bob Nightengale which seemed to guarantee the Rookie of the Year candidate a full season's worth of at-bats. Then came Thursday's announcement that, in the wake of Eloy Jimenez's pectoral injury, Vaughn might see time in left field as the team seeks a replacement. Wherever you had Vaughn ranked previously, I've now locked him in as my 1B20, and the case can be made for a 1B15 ceiling.
Speaking of enticing first basemen, C.J. Cron was added to the Colorado Rockies' roster this past Saturday, locking in his everyday-starter status in a fabulous situation for his fantasy value. He has enjoyed some of the best Statcast exit velocity numbers this spring. He's my 1B19, which might even be too pessimistic considering he's the NFBC's 1B16 in drafts that have occurred since Monday.
Josh Rojas, another spring Statcast darling and the player I most regretted leaving off Tuesday's list, probably benefitted most from the aforementioned Varsho demotion. Rojas could see near-regular time between second base and the outfield and has a history of five-category contributions in the minors, along with good plate discipline. He's my 2B44 (and only qualifies there initially), and that might be 10-15 spots too low.
The third base job in Washington might not be Carter Kieboom's after all, as he has slashed just .150/.227/.250 in 44 spring plate appearances. Starlin Castro has seen some recent time there and is a viable fallback, explaining Kieboom's drop to 3B35.
It's a realistic outcome that Jonathan India makes the Cincinnati Reds' roster, affording the team the luxury of moving Mike Moustakas to third base and Eugenio Suarez to shortstop, defense be damned. India has batted .333/.458/.590 in 48 spring trips to the plate. He has shown good patience in the minors with balanced contributions in terms of power/speed. He's my 3B44, as he initially qualifies only at the hot corner.
Between the dirt and the wall
Jimenez's aforementioned injury was the week's most devastating, as he was my OF8 (not to mention a $31 LABR-AL buy). He will now miss a probable 5-6 months due to a torn pectoral muscle. We'll project him in the 100-125 PA range, but I'm playing the pessimist here. He isn't a redraft option, but is still an appealing dynasty player.
Joc Pederson's scorching spring (.342/.409/.816 and five home runs) earned him a boost to my OF55. Considering that he'll probably begin the season batting fifth behind good-OBP hitters Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant might mean a huge boost in run production.
If it's not Rojas who benefited most from Varsho's demotion, then it certainly was Diamondbacks outfielder Tim Locastro, one of the game's speediest players. Locastro's plate discipline is better than you think and he has been getting starts recently -- a hint that he could be a factor in at least a platoon role. Light-hitting speedsters like Myles Straw and Roman Quinn have gotten a lot of press during the early spring-training weeks, but Locastro is no less viable a late-round selection to address that category.
I'm making the assumption that George Springer misses two regular-season weeks nursing his oblique injury, and have moved him down to OF16 accordingly. NFBC drafters have been selecting him as the OF14 since Wednesday.
Alex Kirilloff's demotion was another of the past week's surprises, as the Minnesota Twins sent him to their alternate training site on Tuesday, presumably granting Jake Cave the lion's share of at-bats in his stead. I've dropped Kirilloff to my OF92 accordingly, preferring not to embrace a panic move. Still, I'm genuinely concerned that he might not advance back to Minnesota any quicker than some of the team's other outfield prospects might get there, Trevor Larnach in particular.