Stats that count! Stats that count! At long last, we have stats that count!
Baseball's opening weekend brought with it plenty of storylines -- Yermin Mercedes' historic start, the Baltimore Orioles' weekend sweep and first-place standing in the American League East, and Shohei Ohtani's 101-mph fastball and 450-foot home run (before his departure with an unfortunate injury). Despite the minuscule sample size, we nonetheless still have plenty of data to digest for our fantasy leagues. It's never too early to get a head start on improving your team and here's the place where we'll point you in the right direction towards that goal.
Every Monday and Wednesday, check back here for my series of actionable blurbs on players, which most commonly will include recommended pickups in ESPN standard and up-to-15-teams-mixed fantasy leagues. At times, we'll also provide trade advice, players to cut, and other moves you can make to boost your squad. As this is the first Monday of the regular season, today's column is extremely add-heavy. It's too soon, after all, to make any rash cuts -- most of any "necessary" moves are as a result of injuries or players who missed their Opening Day rosters -- and the trade market in most leagues has yet to heat up.
With that in mind, if they're still available, get these three players onto your teams right now:
1. Julian Merryweather, SP/RP, Toronto Blue Jays: It was game flow that dictated his first save opportunity of 2021. He got the ball to begin the 10th inning of the Blue Jays' Opening Day game at the New York Yankees, after his team captured the lead in the top of the frame. Sometimes it's merely that one opportunity that cements a closer's status. Merryweather was simply untouchable, striking out all three Yankees hitters he faced on 11 pitches, averaging 98.4 mph with his four-seam fastball while painting the strike zone's edges masterfully with his slider and changeup. The Blue Jays took notice, handing him the ball again with a ninth-inning lead on Sunday, and the right-hander was no less impressive in his second try, throwing 6-of-9 fastballs faster than 99 mph and recording the game's final out on a nasty slider that Gleyber Torres took for strike three.
While it seems silly to anoint a pitcher like Merryweather, someone who was not even regarded a top-two option for his team's saves just five days ago, as the Blue Jays closer so quickly, his pitch selection to-date, coupled with the magnitude of the pair of performances warrants such an investment in fantasy. He fetched a $421 bid (out of a maximum $1,000) in Tout Wars-mixed on Sunday night. (The second-highest bid was $223 but, to be fair, only 4-of-15 teams bid at least 10% of their budget.) He saw his roster percentage rise from zero to 22.5% in ESPN leagues as of Monday morning. Coupling his raw stuff with the Blue Jays' probability of many save chances to dish out, he probably warrants a 40% share of your FAB (Free-Agent Budget) and should be rostered in closer to 60-70% of ESPN leagues already. His is a small sample upon which to act.
An additional wrinkle: For those of you in leagues that separate pitching positions into starters and relievers, Merryweather's dual-eligibility in ESPN leagues can be handy, warranting even more aggressive pursuit if that aspect is advantageous in your league.
2. Michael Taylor, OF, Kansas City Royals: Power/speed hitters are hardly a dime a dozen. In fact, there were only nine 20/20 players in 2019, and just 14 who managed at least eight of each (which is the prorated number in a 60-game season, rounded up) in 2020. In other words, when you find one, you sometimes need not stare at the warts. Taylor might not be a lock to get even to those levels, having averaged 15 homers and 22 stolen bases (per-162 games) in his big-league career -- and that's including his two-homer weekend. Still, he has boosted the pop in his bat over the past three seasons (2019-21), during which time he has 41.5% Statcast hard contact and 13.1% Barrel rates, without the bloated ground-ball rates that deflate the power impact of either number.
Yes, Kansas City is a terrible place for a power hitter. Yes, Taylor strikes out a lot -- 31.2% of his career big-league plate appearances -- which makes the odds of a sub-.250 batting average greater than one above it. And yes, he's not as patient as I'd like, with a 6.8% career walk rate. All that aside, Taylor brings potentially elite center field defense to the table -- though he hasn't graded out as elite defensively, he has the natural speed to cover a ton of ground -- which locks him into near-everyday status. Plus, he plays for a manager (Mike Matheny) who was one of the more aggressive ones on the basepaths in 2020. Matheny's Royals attempted a steal on 8.9% of their Baseball-Reference.com measured opportunities, second-most in the league. Even taking the speedy Adalberto Mondesi out of that equation, Matheny's "green-light rate" was 5.2%, which would've ranked ninth-highest.
What I see in Taylor is this: The American League's version of Harrison Bader, a 20/20-caliber hitter with elite defense. Watching the two play, I'd argue that Taylor's the one with the better skills and approach at the plate.
3. Cedric Mullins, OF, Baltimore Orioles: He might lack the pop of even a guy like Taylor, but an advantage that he has over the Royals' center fielder is opportunity. Mullins (who I grant might be more of a stash candidate than an "all-in" add in ESPN standard leagues) handled the leadoff role in each of his team's first three games of 2021, which was the same role he occupied late in spring training. It's one he'll probably handle only against right-handed starters, being that he's a career .147/.230/.189 hitter against left-handers in 111 career trips to the plate. However, he was kept in there against the lefty relievers all weekend -- and went a perfect 3-for-3 against them -- which bodes well for the Orioles' regard for his talent.
It's not Mullins' batting average (think a locked-in .260s) which drives his fantasy appeal, though it sure helps him in that category that he has 77.0% big-league, 82.4% career Triple-A and 82.1% pro-career contact rates. Rather, it's his stolen base potential, even if he didn't attempt a single swipe in the season-opening series at Boston. Mullins had 90th percentile-or-better Statcast sprint speed scores in each of 2018-20, and he has averaged 32 steals (per-162 games) played in the pros. He's also on a team with plenty of opportunity, which is a lot better than can be said for similar speedy types who narrowly made their rosters. If you exited your roto/head-to-head categories draft a little light on steals, Mullins is a dirt-cheap pickup you should now consider.
Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast
LISTEN: Already time to move on?
Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft dive into what Shohei Ohtani's Sunday Night means (0:52), the lasting impact of Yermin Mercedes (6:25) and debate if a handful of standout players are worth your time (10:15). Has Tristan adjusted his ranks for some big performers (12:50)? They also have you covered on the latest bullpen chaos (18:40) and preview the next few days across the league (36:15).