The Miami Marlins rookie pitcher to watch in April is not the one most fantasy baseball managers might think. Right-hander Sixto Sanchez, who finished in a tie for seventh in National League Rookie of the Year voting last season and retains his rookie status, is not currently on the big-league roster. The organization plans to be extra careful with Sanchez, and they do not need a fifth starter until the middle of the month. Fantasy managers, of course, have little patience, so watch to see if Sanchez hits your league's waiver wire and, if so, you should go get him.
However, while left-hander Trevor Rogers had a rougher time in his 2020 big-league debut, reaching six innings in only one of his seven starts and finishing with a bloated 6.11 ERA and 1.61 WHIP, there were positives as well. Rogers struck out 30% of the hitters he faced and added velocity over the course of the season. His slider and changeup have both become legitimate pitches. Try not to look at ERA, for it is often misleading. To that point, Rogers had to deal with a .403 BABIP and his expected ERA was a cool 3.53. His xFIP was 3.67. He is a breakout option for 2021 and is still rookie eligible.
As an aside, please be very aware of your respective Rogers pitchers because one does not want to invest in the wrong one. Trevor is the Marlins rookie starter. Taylor Rogers is the Minnesota Twins left-handed setup man, formerly their closer. Yes, I think Alex Colome gets the saves. Tyler Rogers is his right-handed, submarine-throwing brother for the San Francisco Giants, and probably not the closer. Here endeth the Rogers lesson.
Sanchez, of course, has the bigger prospect pedigree, and he still can be a terrific fantasy option, but it sure looks as if the durable Rogers will pitch more innings. Who will be better? I think most of us would still take 120 innings of Sanchez over Rogers at 150 innings, but there is a clear disconnect in the roster totals at ESPN Fantasy. Sanchez remains rostered at 87%. Good! Keep him there. Rogers is at 7.7%. Bad! That's too low. Rogers was a 2017 first-round pick in the amateur draft and a legit prospect as well. Sanchez has ace upside, but Rogers can be a relevant mixed-league option as well.
Here are my thoughts on 10 other pitching prospects with rookie status. You might not like all these thoughts but do you want the truth, or do you want overly optimistic analysis? Remember, big-league teams are so cautious with high-end pitching prospects.
Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves: There are some concerns here with his history of walks, but as long as he keeps inducing ground balls and avoiding home runs, he should be fine. Anderson is not similar to the others listed below. The best I can tell, Anderson, Sanchez and Triston McKenzie are the only rookie-eligible hurlers rostered in more than 35% of ESPN standard leagues. Anderson seems the safest for volume this season.
Triston McKenzie, Cleveland: He made the team's roster, but with no guarantee of a starting role or significant innings. McKenzie stands at 6-foot-5 and 175 pounds -- hardly the build of an innings-eater -- and he has a history of injury. He should pitch well when he pitches, but I will take the under on 100 innings this season.
MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres: I love this lefty for the long-term, but the contending Padres are going to be even more careful with Gore than the Marlins are being with Sanchez. Gore could also pitch in relief as an "eased in" introduction to the majors. I do not see Gore getting past 50 big-league innings this season. Again, roster Gore in redraft formats at your own peril. He could be great -- or he could be frustrating.
Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox: Kopech will start the 2021 season in the bullpen (in a long relief role) and I doubt he will help fantasy managers this way. I can see him getting some spot-starts, but look for him to land on the most-dropped list really soon. The same goes for his teammate, prized lefty Garrett Crochet, really. He throws 100 MPH, too. However, this season, that speed will come in middle relief. Perhaps in 2022 both will be dominant, healthy and coveted starting pitchers.
Nate Pearson, Toronto Blue Jays: The hard-throwing right-hander misses his team's Opening Day rotation due to a groin injury, but at least Toronto seems committed to Pearson being a starter this season. Plus, they've yet to scare us with reports of any dreaded "innings caps." The Blue Jays fail to scare anyone with their rotation options beyond ace Hyun-Jin Ryu, which is why Pearson is so important to them. Still, if he cannot stay healthy, he cannot help anyone.
Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies: In contrast, Philadelphia has announced an odd "hybrid role" for the oft-injured Howard, which means some limited starts of like three innings, a few piggy-back outings, and likely a lot of frustration for fantasy managers. Howard starts the season in the minors. I doubt he will even approach 100 big-league innings in 2021.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers: Finally, we have some uplifting news! Skubal made the Detroit rotation and, from a fantasy angle, he looked better than No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize this spring. Skubal is a bit of a walker, so do not expect a pristine WHIP -- or many wins on this team. Still, as with Miami's Rogers, he should pitch well enough to keep a starting role.
Luis Patino, Tampa Bay Rays: And right back to the gloom we go. Patino will start the season at the organization's alternate site and not in the rotation, with no guarantee of a pending promotion or a future fixed role. Patino may be a star, but if you are looking for immediate assistance this season, look elsewhere. I bet the Rays will promote shortstop Wander Franco (to play third base) much sooner.
Daulton Jefferies, Oakland Athletics: Regardless of what the Opening Day rotation actually looks like, I would take this right-hander over exalted left-hander A.J. Puk, since the latter has given us little reason to think he can stay healthy. Jefferies delivered big stats this spring, fanning 24-of-72 hitters (without any context of who they were) in 18 innings of work. Puk is rostered in 12% of leagues and perhaps a starting role awaits for him. Nevertheless, I still think the team envisions a Josh Hader role for him.
Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland: We will finish off with a relief pitcher -- and a potentially special one. Maybe manager Terry Francona really still does not know who will close, but Clase has better stuff than Nick Wittgren and better control than James Karinchak. He could well be the one who gets those saves.
Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast
LISTEN: Let the games begin!
Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft discuss the value of an injured Adalberto Mondesi (1:00), the long-term ranking of the well-compensated Francisco Lindor (3:35) and Andrew Vaughn (6:25) not being in the Opening Day lineup. They also breakdown Kyle Lewis' attempt to repeat (7:50), the Dodgers rotation (9:45) and the closers picking up steam (13:10) before diving into the week-long slate courtesy of Tristan's Forecaster (17:25)!