This is the reality of a 60-game season: Funky statistical things happen.
This is the reality of a 60-game season played during a pandemic, during which spring training was interrupted at its midway point, then resumed (with the quirky designation "Summer Camp") under extremely abbreviated circumstances: Even funkier statistical things happen on the pitching side, where workloads are intensely scrutinized.
You probably already know that a record-low 40 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season and, coming off the short 2020 season, teams might not be any more willing to allow their starters to take on the sizable workloads they did in the past. We might not see many more than 50 ERA qualifiers in 2021 -- and remember, in a 162-game season, that requires a mere minimum of 162 innings -- meaning that how you plan out your own fantasy pitching staff is paramount.
There are few stronger examples of the impact of declining pitching workloads than right here in my annual "Kings of Command" analysis. In 2020, just 32 starting pitchers met the criteria outlined in past editions, and that's prorating the batters-faced requirements (200 in a 162 game season, meaning 74 in 60 games). Throw in the fact that a 60-game season represents a precariously small sample size (meaning a greater-than-usual number of outliers on either side) and it's not so easy to find a good number of statistically-driven bargain candidates.
I've therefore made a couple of key adjustments to my Kings of Command criteria, tweaks that I anticipate will carry into future seasons, considering the ever-changing pitching landscape. First, for each of the criteria used -- swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%), first-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%) and command rate (K/BB) -- my qualification requirement is that the pitcher exceeds the league's average (split up among starters and relievers) in all three categories, rather than a predetermined minimum.
Here are the new thresholds for 2021:
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the major league averages in all of the following categories during the 2020 major league season, with said averages listed below. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 74 batters (prorated from 200 in a 162-game season) and relief pitchers must have faced at least 37 batters (prorated from 100), while serving in that specific role.
Starting pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.0% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 60.5% or more
Command rate (K's per walk or K/BB): 2.77 or more
Relief pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 59.2% of more
Command rate (K's per walk or K/BB): 2.35 or more
Using these newly adjusted thresholds, only 111 pitchers (41 starters and 70 relievers) met all of three criteria in either role. Among them were the American League's Cy Young Award winner, Shane Bieber, and 11 of the top 16 starting pitchers on both our Player Rater and in terms of fantasy points scored.
The nine pitchers listed below, however, also made the list, despite none receiving nearly the same level of attention. In terms of raw skill, they all compared favorably to the headline-grabbers, which hints that each could be a mere adjustment, a role change or simply better luck away from realizing fantasy greatness in 2021.
These "Kings of Command" are, as always, listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2020 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN's standard scoring system.
Tejay Antone, Cincinnati Reds
2020 Player Rater: RP67/307th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 77 (RP44)
Why he's on here: A generally overlooked prospect as a starting pitcher during his first six professional campaigns, Antone was promoted by the Reds on the second day of the 2020 season as pitching depth, serving as a long reliever and spot starter. Ultimately, he found his niche in relief, where his elite-spin sinker/slider/curveball repertoire was considerably more effective. He had a 1.89 ERA and 0.63 WHIP in 19 relief innings. Most notably, Antone was excellent at getting called strikes, his 39.5% rate in relief being the most among pitchers who faced at least 40 batters.
How he could improve: Adding a pitch to counter left-handed hitters might be one way, as they had a wOBA 110 points higher than did right-handed hitters (.313, compared to .203), and you can be sure that opponents will be overall more prepared for him after a winter's worth of perusing scouting reports. Antone has closer-capable stuff, though, and a key to his improving his fantasy value would be grabbing a portion of the Reds' saves, which right now could fall to anyone from him, Amir Garrett, Sean Doolittle or Lucas Sims.
Nathan Eovaldi, Boston Red Sox
2020 Player Rater: SP52/186th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 109 (SP50)
Why he's on here: Lost in what was an otherwise forgettable 2020 season for the Red Sox, whose 5.58 team ERA was the worst in franchise history, was Eovaldi's year of career bests in terms of his 26.1% strikeout and 3.5% walk rates and a 3.32 xFIP. He continued to utilize the same four-pitch mix -- four-seam fastball, cutter, splitter and curveball -- he has used since joining the Red Sox in 2018. What made the difference for him last season was shelving his slider for a curveball that, despite minimal spin, generated 13 of his 52 strikeouts and a .111 BAA.
How he could improve: Eovaldi made three September starts following a 17-day injured list stint for a right calf strain and, in them, he totaled 14 innings with just one run allowed and a 35.2% strikeout rate. During that time, his fastball averaged 98.1 mph, which would be the highest rate of his 10-year career if extended over a full year. Heightened fastball velocity might be one path to bigger things in 2021. But the true route to improvement for Eovaldi is what it always seems to be -- health. He has landed on the IL in each of the past five seasons, totaling 424 days of absence.
Elieser Hernandez, Miami Marlins
2020 Player Rater: SP97/355th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 72 (SP96)
Why he's on here: For the second consecutive season, he met this column's qualification thresholds. While his 2020 was a mere six-start sample, his raw statistics showed a significant amount of progress. Hernandez took huge steps forward with his 6.80 K/BB ratio, 67.6% first-pitch strike rate and, perhaps most importantly considering his prior control issues at higher competitive professional levels, his 4.7% walk rate. A strained lat muscle ultimately ended his season last Sept. 1, a disappointing break for the 25-year-old right-hander. However, his being absent during the Marlins' Cinderella wild-card run might've done us a favor in fantasy, keeping this bargain candidate beneath the national radar.
How he could improve: As Hernandez is an extreme fly-baller, he'll need to repeat (or at least approach) those K and walk rates, since to this stage of his big league career he has had much difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Remember, he calls one of the most spacious venues in baseball his home. A major breakthrough, too, might come down to whether he can develop another pitch to utilize against left-handed hitters, who to this point in his career have a wOBA 57 points higher against him than do right-handed hitters (.364, compared to .307).
Chris Martin, Atlanta Braves
2020 Player Rater: RP54/263rd overall
2020 fantasy point total: 64 (RP79)
Why he's on here: This journeyman-turned-elite relief arm made the transformation largely on significantly improved control, as his 2.8% walk rate over the past three seasons led all relievers (minimum 100 innings). A spike in his curveball usage and its spin rate helped make him a legitimate contender for saves in the Braves' 2021 bullpen. Between the regular season and playoffs in 2020, Martin had a 1.38 ERA, an 0.69 WHIP, one save and seven holds in 27 appearances.
How he could improve: From a fantasy perspective, save chances would do it -- and the Braves' bullpen is structured in such a way that he'll prominently factor either in a committee, or potentially grabbing the role outright from the widely regarded favorite, Will Smith. Martin might also do well to lean more on his slider and changeup, which are two of his more swing-and-miss oriented pitches, as the resulting strikeouts would also pad his fantasy value. Even the status quo, though, is enough to make him an intriguing bargain candidate, if you're going that route to fill your saves category.
Jake McGee, San Francisco Giants
2020 Player Rater: RP45/236th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 75 (RP49)
Why he's on here: Cut loose by the Colorado Rockies during 2020's Summer Camp, McGee latched on with the Dodgers, where he enjoyed a rebirth as a specialist working out of their bullpen. He posted career bests with his 41.8% strikeout and 3.8% walk rates, and his fastball averaged 95.0 mph -- his highest in any season since 2014, when he was a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. Remarkably, McGee did this despite becoming the most fastball-reliant pitcher in baseball. His 96.4% fastball usage was more than 16% greater than anyone who threw 200-plus overall pitches in 2020.
How he could improve: Save chances, naturally, and Giants manager Gabe Kapler has already named McGee as a candidate for the closer role entering spring training. Besides, McGee is a virtual lock for at least some chances if Kapler opts for another closer-by-committee arrangement. Sprinkling in more sliders -- his had a 16.5% swinging-strike rate over the past three seasons -- might also help diversify McGee's pitch selection, not to mention reverse what has been a rising trend in the amount of hard contact he has allowed over the last two years.
John Means, Baltimore Orioles
2020 Player Rater: SP78/276th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 76 (SP90)
Why he's on here: Never regarded a top prospect during his five-year rise through the Orioles' minor-league system, Means has shown a good amount of growth in his two seasons thus far in the majors, with much of it slipping beneath the radar on a team that won only 35.6% of its games over that time. In 2020, he exhibited pinpoint control. His 4.0% walk rate was his lowest in any full season since his 2014 pro debut, and he ramped up his four-seam fastball to career-bests with 93.8 mph average velocity and 2,458 rpms of spin, showing significant year-over-year improvement.
How he could improve: Maintaining the performance of that four-seam fastball would go a long way, but the other interesting takeaway from Means' 2020 was his ramped-up curveball usage, especially in September. In his final four starts, he threw the pitch 16.2% of the time, posting 3-of-4 quality starts with a 34.5% strikeout rate during that period. Continuing the trends with those two pitches, combined with his well-above-average changeup, could go a long way towards fueling a possibly top-40 fantasy starter breakthrough.
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres
2020 Player Rater: SP90/333rd overall
2020 fantasy point total: 71 (SP98)
Why he's on here: He has now made the list in back-to-back seasons and in three of the past four years, but it's not simply my trying to "make Musgrove happen." At the rate that he has pitched thus far during his big-league career, Musgrove is going to happen, and the trade to San Diego might well be the impetus. Among the 118 pitchers who made at least eight starts last season, his 68.3% first-pitch strike rate ranked third and his 15.3% swinging strike rate was 18th. He also managed a 15th-ranked 36.0% called strike rate, another strong metric in support of his polished command of the strike zone.
How he could improve: If the September edition of Musgrove is the one who toes the mound for all six months of 2021 -- or even 50-60% of them -- that might be all it takes. Following his return from an IL stint for right triceps inflammation, he made five starts with a 2.16 ERA, an 0.92 WHIP and a 38.8% strikeout rate, during which time he exhibited a slight boost in average fastball velocity (93.0 mph, up from 92.8 for his career) while leaning more on his curveball. If he continues to feature that curveball, a 25%-plus, full-season strikeout rate is well within his reach.
Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres
2020 Player Rater: SP62/222nd overall
2020 fantasy point total: 96 (SP58)
Why he's on here: It's a reminder that, in spite of what was perceived to be a steep decline in 2020 relative to his rookie year, he is still a potentially excellent young, up-and-coming starting pitcher. Though he slipped from 25th to 62nd among starting pitchers on the Player Rater, Paddack's changeup was every bit as effective in 2020 as it was in 2019. Statcast actually graded it with an even better Run Value when prorated to 162 games! He also posted swinging-strike (12.4%), walk (4.9%) and K/BB rates (4.83) that were nearly identical to his 2019 numbers (12.9%, 5.5% and 4.94). This looks like a classic "hitters have adjusted to a pitcher and the pitcher must now readjust" scenario.
How he could improve: Embracing analytics, as Paddack has reportedly done, is a big step in that direction. Most of the drop-off in his performance was tied to the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, which indeed lost a noticeable amount of spin, as opponents batted .308 against it after managing just .204 in 2019. Tweaking that might be all it takes to restore his 2019 fantasy value, but it's even possible he could advance further, should he either improve the performance of his curveball or perhaps shelve it entirely for a different offering that could counter left-handed hitters. Regardless, I see a lot of parallels to Luis Castillo's 2018-19 winter in Paddack's 2020-21.
Drew Smyly, Atlanta Braves
2020 Player Rater: SP106/409th overall
2020 fantasy point total: 67, SP104
Why he's on here: It's a fair question, because his was a precariously small five-start sample in 2020, and injuries have limited him to a total of just 51 starts and 10 relief appearances spread out over the past four seasons. Still, Smyly was quietly excellent in his limited action. Among the 194 pitchers who faced at least as many as the 111 batters that he did, his 68.8% first-pitch strike rate was fourth-best, his 16.2% swinging-strike rate ranked 15th, and he even had a 36.3% called strike rate that also ranked 15th. The Braves took notice, handing him an $11 million free-agent contract (and a promised rotation spot) in one of the winter's earliest signings.
How he could improve: Health! Smyly missed the entirety of 2017 and nearly all of 2018 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, then another 54 days total for IL stints in each of 2019-20. Nevertheless, last season he had what was by far his career-best average fastball velocity (93.8 mph), added a good amount of spin to that offering, and transformed his curveball into a nasty "out pitch" that generated 27 of his 42 strikeouts. If Smyly can remain on the mound, while maintaining the performance of those two pitches, he could become a fantasy lineup mainstay at a dirt-cheap price tag.
Kings of Command master list of qualifiers
Listed below, with starting pitchers on the left and relief pitchers on the right and in ascending order of their 2020 FIP, are all 111 pitchers who met all of the Kings of Command criteria in 2020.