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NFL betting: Teams we like to beat or fall short of projected win totals

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Will the Vikings have more than 8.5 wins this season? (0:51)

Joe Fortenbaugh and Damien Woody debate whether the Minnesota Vikings will surpass 8.5 wins this season. (0:51)

Another NFL season is upon us. And with it, renewed hope for all 32 teams.

Will the Denver Broncos repeat their success from last season? Which other teams might surprise in 2025?

With win totals out at ESPN BET, we asked our team to check out the odds and offer their best bets to go over or under their regular-season projections this season.


Check out the latest odds and win totals for every team at ESPN BET.


Atlanta Falcons OVER 7.5 wins (-135)

Pamela Maldonado: The Falcons have a path to nine wins, and it starts with a healthy Michael Penix Jr. and one of the softest schedules in the league. Atlanta faces the fourth-easiest slate overall and the cushiest against the run, a dream scenario for RB Bijan Robinson & Co. From Week 9 on, seven of the Falcons' 10 games are against teams projected to have losing records, and only two of those matchups are true road games. The talent is here, and if the strong-armed Penix is even average, this number can hit.

Broncos OVER 9.5 wins (Even)

Eric Moody: Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams got the rookie quarterback hype in 2024. Daniels delivered. Williams did not. Meanwhile, Bo Nix, the No. 12 pick in that draft class and the sixth QB taken in the first round, flew under the radar and led the Broncos to a 10-7 record and the playoffs for the first time since they won the Super Bowl after the 2015 season. The 10 wins were the most by a Broncos team starting a rookie at quarterback, and Nix set rookie franchise records with 3,775 yards passing and 29 TDs while finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting. The Broncos added playmakers on offense in tight end Evan Engram and rookie running back RJ Harvey, and they have a healthy J.K. Dobbins. On defense, Denver added linebacker Dre Greenlaw, safety Talanoa Hufanga and first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron to a top-tier unit than boasts the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Pat Surtain II. With coach Sean Payton at the helm, the Broncos are built to win 10-plus games again.

Houston Texans OVER 9.5 wins (+105)

Matt Bowen: The Texans have two early tests to start the season, opening on the road in Week 1 against the Los Angeles Rams and then hosting Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2. Plus, Houston plays the AFC West this year: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and that Denver defense, Pete Carroll's team in Vegas ... not easy. However, with new offensive coordinator Nick Caley bringing elements of Sean McVay's system to Houston, look for quarterback C.J. Stroud to play at the level we saw during his rookie season when he threw for over 4,000 yards and made smart decisions with the ball. Plus, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has a defense with the makeup of a top-five unit. Hit the quarterback and play opportunistic football here. If the Texans can take control of their divisional games in the AFC South, getting to the 10-win mark -- which they hit last season -- seems feasible.

Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 7.5 wins (-120)

Liz Loza: The Jaguars' brass, intent on rebounding from last year's 4-13 record, brought in coach Liam Cohen and drafted Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter second. Opening the season versus Carolina should help ease the Jags into bounce-back mode. Though question marks surround the defense, particularly in the secondary, Jacksonville should benefit from matchups against similarly shallow defenses, such as those of the Raiders and Titans. Interestingly, the Cardiac Jags posted back-to-back nine-win seasons in 2022 and 2023 with a healthy Trevor Lawrence at the helm. The path to eight dubs is there.