Welcome to The Playbook for Week 13, which kicks off Thursday with three Thanksgiving Day games.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the latest update of each team's rest-of-season strength of schedule.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
GB-DET | KC-DAL| CIN-BAL | CHI-PHI | SF-CLE | JAC-TEN | HOU-IND | NO-MIA
ATL-NYJ | ARI-TB | LAR-CAR | MIN-SEA | BUF-PIT| LV-LAC| DEN-WAS | NYG-NE
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions
Projected score: Lions 26, Packers 24
Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Josh Jacobs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Fantasy scoop: Jameson Williams has scored 16-plus fantasy points in four of his past seven games but has totaled (yes, totaled) 2.0 points in his other three outings during the span. The latter number includes zero-catch efforts against the Bucs in Week 7 and Giants in Week 12. Williams was dealing with shadow coverage via Cor'Dale Flott this past Sunday, but his boom/bust nature has made him a risky fantasy option. Though he's always a threat for a big play, Williams has a tough Thanksgiving assignment against a Green Bay defense that held him to 23 yards on five targets in Week 1. The Packers have allowed the sixth-fewest yards to receivers, and only two have reached 17.5 points against them (both were prior to Week 7). Williams remains a boom/bust WR3.
Over/under: 50.8 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Lions 57% (lowest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected score: Chiefs 29, Cowboys 26
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, Rashee Rice, George Pickens, Travis Kelce, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: Xavier Worthy was targeted eight times Sunday, the most he has seen in a game since hitting a season high with nine in Week 5. Despite the uptick, Worthy was limited to 59 yards and has been held below 12 fantasy points in seven straight games and eight of nine outings this season. Worthy has found the end zone only once (he had 12 TDs in 20 games last season) and has struggled to generate big plays (under 60 yards in all but one game). His recent target share (19% over his past four games) is solid, but only enough to make him a low-ceiling flex against an improving Dallas defense.
Over/under: 54.6 (highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 60% (12th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens
Projected score: Ravens 29, Bengals 23
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ja'Marr Chase, Zay Flowers
Fantasy scoop: Joe Burrow is expected back from injury this week. Burrow has played only one full game this season, a Week 1 effort against the Browns in which he completed 14 of 23 passes for 113 yards and one touchdown. Burrow, who led the NFL in pass attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns last season, will certainly throw the ball more often this week than he did in Week 1, which, along with his elite talent, is enough to position him as a fringe QB1. That said, he's not quite a lineup lock as it's unclear whether he'll be able to generate much with his legs in a tough matchup against a much-improved Baltimore defense that hasn't allowed a quarterback to reach 15 fantasy points since Week 5.
Shadow Report: Expect DJ Turner to shadow Flowers on his perimeter routes this week as he did when these teams met in Week 11 of 2023 (Flowers scored 7.3 fantasy points in that game) and Week 10 last season (7.4). More notably, Turner has shadowed often this season and has done exceedingly well. The nine receivers he has shadowed averaged 7.9 fantasy points, including 9.9 for DK Metcalf two weeks ago and 4.0 for Stefon Diggs this past Sunday. Flowers should be downgraded a bit, though he'll avoid Turner the roughly 33% of the time he's in the slot. Other Ravens pass catchers, especially tight end Mark Andrews, should be upgraded against a defense allowing the highest EPA against the pass.
Over/under: 52.5 (second highest)
Win probability: Ravens 70% (sixth highest)
Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 26, Bears 22
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, Rome Odunze, DeVonta Smith
Fantasy scoop: D'Andre Swift's value is trending down after he was on the short end of a committee with rookie Kyle Monangai on Sunday. Whereas Monangai racked up 12 carries and zero targets on 34 snaps (16 routes), Swift handled eight carries and one target on 26 snaps (13 routes). This marked the first game in which Monangai outsnapped Swift, so it's possible the snaps revert back, but Swift didn't exactly do much to suggest he should be featured (29 yards on nine touches, compared with 48 yards and one TD on 12 touches for Monangai). Swift's 1.9 fantasy points were easily a season low, though he was held to 9.0 points the week prior despite handling 21 touches. Monangai, meanwhile, has scored in three straight games but was held under 11 fantasy points in all three and in nine of 11 games this season. The uncertainty of how touches will be distributed makes both backs risky in a neutral matchup against the Eagles on Friday, though Swift's larger body of work makes him the safer flex option.
Shadow Report: Rome Odunze can expect shadow coverage courtesy of Quinyon Mitchell this week. Mitchell has shadowed the opposing team's top perimeter receiver in six games this season. Those six receivers averaged 11.8 fantasy PPG, with Emeka Egbuka, Courtland Sutton and Davante Adams each reaching at least 14.6. Though this is a tough matchup and the Eagles' defense has generally played well, it's worth noting that George Pickens went for 29.6 points against Philly on Sunday. Like Pickens, Odunze is his team's top boundary receiver. Odunze's bust risk his higher than usual, but he's still in the WR2 mix.
Over/under: 48.1 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Eagles 65% (ninth highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
Projected score: 49ers 22, Browns 18
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle
Fantasy scoop: Shedeur Sanders made his first NFL start Sunday and completed 11 of 20 passes for 209 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT, losing 1 yard on his lone carry. Though the passing YPA looks good, Sanders benefited greatly from hitting on three big plays against a poor defense, two of which were downfield throws (52 yards to Isaiah Bond, 39 yards to Jerry Jeudy) with the other a 66-yard catch-and-run by Dylan Sampson. Sanders deserves credit for making enough plays to win, but he'll need to improve his accuracy (55% completion rate, 25% off-target rate in the game) and add value with his legs to find his way to fantasy value. He has another good matchup this week (the 49ers sit top eight in passing yards and TDs allowed) but should be viewed as no more than a weak QB2 option in superflex leagues.
Over/under: 39.6 (14th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 64% (10th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Projected score: Jaguars 24, Titans 19
Lineup lock: Travis Etienne Jr.
Fantasy scoop: Brenton Strange returned from IR on Sunday and caught all five of his targets for a career-high 93 yards. Despite having yet to find the end zone this season, Strange is averaging a solid 10.3 fantasy points in five full games, which would rank 14th among qualified tight ends over the full season. Strange's 5.6 targets per game (16.7% share) are enough to position him as a solid TE2, though he's perhaps not the best Week 13 streaming option against a Titans defense that has struggled overall but been pretty good against tight ends. Tennessee has held Tyler Warren (twice), Trey McBride and Hunter Henry to single-digit fantasy points, and only one opposing TE has reached 12 (Michael Mayer in Week 6).
Shadow Report: Upgrade Jacksonville's receivers against a Titans defense that has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to receivers, including the second most over the past four weeks. Tennessee also sits top three in yards, catch rate and yards per target allowed to receivers. One week after allowing a massive 37.1 points to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tennessee corners Jalyn Armour-Davis, Sam Womack, Marcus Harris and Darrell Baker Jr. will do their best to slow Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington.
Over/under: 42.4 (11th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 66% (eighth highest)
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected score: Colts 25, Texans 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Nico Collins, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren
Shadow Report: Downgrade Collins, Jayden Higgins and all Texans receivers against a now-healthy Colts cornerback room that is perhaps best in the NFL. Collins (79% perimeter) and Higgins (77%) will spend most of their time against Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the boundary, and life won't be much easier for them (or slot WR Christian Kirk) against Kenny Moore when they kick inside. Collins remains a lineup lock, but Higgins is a shaky flex.
Shadow Report: It's far from a lock, but there's a chance Pittman will draw Derek Stingley Jr. shadow coverage. Stingley has never shadowed Pittman, but we've seen Stingley travel with top perimeter receivers this season (Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr., Courtland Sutton) and we've seen Pittman shadowed on his boundary routes at times, including against Pat Surtain II and Max Melton. Regardless, this is a tough assignment for all Colts receivers, as the Texans have allowed the lowest catch rate and fourth-fewest fantasy points to receivers as well as the lowest EPA against the pass. Only four receivers have reached 13 points against them, and the only two who reached 18 were superstars Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua. Downgrade Pittman, Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.
Over/under: 46.1 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Colts 63% (11th highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 23, Saints 17
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Chris Olave, Jaylen Waddle
Fantasy scoop: Alvin Kamara left Sunday's game on his 11th snap due to injury and might miss this game. Following Kamara's departure, Devin Neal and Taysom Hill handled backfield duties. After not playing a single snap while Kamara was active, Neal went on to play 58 of the Saints' final 66 snaps. He was limited to seven carries but ran 31 routes and was targeted eight times. Hill, meanwhile, played five of 12 snaps with Kamara healthy (two carries) and 19 of 66 after that point (eight carries), sometimes sharing the field with Neal. (It's worth noting that Hill fumbled and committed intentional grounding on his final snap, then didn't see the field for the final 22 plays.) With Kamara sidelined, it's likely that Hill, Neal and Audric Estime (healthy scratch on Sunday) will split backfield duties. Hill's tight end fantasy designation adds some intrigue to his value, but a lack of receiving work this season (four targets) makes him very risky and TD dependent. Neal's massive snap and target count are enough to vault him into the flex conversation, but he's not a recommended start considering he is yet to be trusted with more than seven carries in a game in a struggling Saints offense. This is a situation best avoided.
Over/under: 39.6 (13th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 72% (fifth highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Jets
Projected score: Falcons 21, Jets 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall
Fantasy scoop: John Metchie III followed up a 3-45-1 receiving line in Week 11 with a 6-65-1 showing Sunday. Metchie has scored 13-plus fantasy points in consecutive games after reaching that mark in just one of his first 41 NFL games. Of course, the 2022 second-round pick has never had this much opportunity, as he has cleared an 80% snap share in two straight games after never previously reaching that mark. Metchie paced New York receivers in snaps (50) and routes (28) on Sunday, and tied Adonai Mitchell for the position lead in targets (7). At least until Garrett Wilson returns, Metchie appears to have a grasp on the Jets' No. 1 receiver role, though that might not mean consistent fantasy production considering the team's quarterback woes. Metchie is fine to add on waivers, but he's no more than a desperation flex for now even in a plus matchup against the Falcons.
Over/under: 39.8 (12th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 58% (15th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Cardinals 20
Lineup locks: Emeka Egbuka, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Fantasy scoop: Chris Godwin Jr. was limited in his return from injury Sunday, playing just 34% of the snaps and totaling 9 yards on four targets. Godwin has yet to make an impact this season, producing a grand total of 52 yards on 14 targets during his only other two appearances (Weeks 4 and 5). Godwin's playing time will only increase as the season progresses, so he should remain on your roster, but we won't be able to trust him in lineups until he's clearly operating as the team's No. 1 or No. 2 target. That's unlikely to be the scenario this week, so he should be on benches against an Arizona defense that sits midpack against the pass and with Baker Mayfield not at full strength. If Godwin gets closer to his usual role this week, he'll likely land on the flex radar against the Saints in Week 14.
Over/Under: 43.3 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 59% (14th highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers
Projected score: Rams 27, Panthers 16
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Rico Dowdle, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Tetairoa McMillan
Fantasy scoop: Stepping in for the injured Tyler Higbee, Colby Parkinson caught all four of his targets for 41 yards and one touchdown Sunday. The veteran tight end has scored in three consecutive games, averaging 12.5 fantasy PPG during the span. Despite the string of success, Parkinson isn't yet close to starting caliber in fantasy. During the three-game TD stretch, he has totaled 11 targets. He hasn't cleared 47 yards in a game since Week 5 of last season. Even in a respectable matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed a league-high 9.4 yards per target to tight ends, Parkinson is no more than a back-end TE2.
Shadow Report: McMillan is a good bet to draw shadow coverage from Emmanuel Forbes Jr. this week. Forbes traveled with Emeka Egbuka on only a few plays during Sunday's blowout win, but he shadowed during the Rams' prior three games, which included matchups with Rashid Shaheed (Shaheed scored 11.8 fantasy points in the game), Jauan Jennings (19.1) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (19.5). The Rams have been exceptional against the pass (second-lowest EPA allowed), but they face quite a bit of volume (fifth-most pass attempted faced), which is why they sit eighth in catches and midpack in fantasy points allowed to receivers. Expectations for McMillan should be reduced a bit.
Over/under: 42.6 (10th highest)
Win probability: Rams 86% (highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 26, Vikings 13
Lineup locks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Justin Jefferson
Fantasy scoop: The Vikings' offense hit a new low Sunday with J.J. McCarthy throwing for 87 yards on 19 attempts in a one-sided loss to Green Bay. McCarthy is averaging 154.8 yards in his six full games, totaling six passing TDs and 10 INTs during the span. His average depth of throw (9.7 yards), INT rate (6.3%) and sack rate (10.6%) are the highest and his completion rate (54%) the lowest, with his 5.8 YPA ahead of only Dillon Gabriel among qualified QBs. McCarthy's struggles have been disastrous for the Vikings pass catchers, with Jefferson (under 11.5 fantasy points in three straight despite a career-high target share), Jordan Addison (10 or fewer points in four straight, including zero last week) and T.J. Hockenson (6.2 PPG since McCarthy's return) struggling. Jefferson's heavy usage and elite talent keep him in the lineup lock mix, but no one else from this offense can be trusted, especially against a good Seattle defense and with undrafted Max Brosmer unlikely to perform much better than what we've seen from McCarthy.
Over/under: 38.8 (15th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 84% (third highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected score: Bills 26, Steelers 23
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook III
Fantasy scoop: Kenneth Gainwell appears to have forced his way into a committee in Pittsburgh. The veteran back outsnapped Jaylen Warren 36 to 34 on Sunday and, though he trailed Warren 18 to 10 in carries, he was targeted on six of 18 routes, compared with zero targets on 10 routes for Warren. Gainwell ended up with 122 yards on 16 touches, one week after producing 105 yards and two scores on 16 touches. Warren, meanwhile, put together an 18-68-1 rushing line but has been limited to two or fewer targets in four straight and has reached 13 fantasy points in just one of his past five outings. It appears the Steelers might be leaning toward a near-even split, with Warren the primary rusher and Gainwell the primary receiver. This could be a fantasy headache at times, but the good news is that both are in the RB2 mix this week against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (15), second-highest yards per carry (5.3) and third-most fantasy points to RBs.
Shadow Report: DK Metcalf can expect shadow coverage from Christian Benford this week. Benford has traveled with Garrett Wilson (9.0 fantasy points in the game), Tyreek Hill (15.9), Chris Olave (11.0), Drake London (31.8), Tetairoa McMillan (16.9), Travis Kelce (10.6), Emeka Egbuka (9.0) and Nico Collins (8.5) on their perimeter routes this season. The seven wide receivers averaged a healthy 14.6 fantasy points, though two straight have been held to single digits. Metcalf is averaging 9.0 fantasy PPG in the five games where he has been shadowed this season, failing to clear 12.3 in any of them. Expectations for Pittsburgh's top receiver should be lowered but he remains in the WR3 mix.
Over/under: 49.1 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Bills 60% (13th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 24, Raiders 13
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Ladd McConkey, Brock Bowers
Fantasy scoop: There was a point earlier this season in which three Chargers receivers were well worth a spot in fantasy lineups. It's more of a shaky proposition these days, as, McConkey aside, it has been a struggle. McConkey is coming off a rough game (4.3 points) but does have 14.9-plus in five of his past seven and remains the safest play from this unit. Keenan Allen opened the season with 17-plus points in three straight but has fallen short of 11 in seven of eight games since. He has one TD during the span and six or fewer targets in four straight. Quentin Johnston, meanwhile, has produced 14.9-plus fantasy points in five games this season but has been held without a catch in two of his past four. The good news is that this trio is set up with a plus matchup against a Las Vegas defense that sits top six in catches, TDs and fantasy points allowed to receivers. The three receivers combined for 42.8 points when these teams met in Week 2. McConkey remains a WR2 and lineup lock, Allen is a WR3 and Johnston is a boom/bust flex.
Over/under: 36.8 (lowest)
Win probability: Chargers 85% (second highest)
Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders
Projected score: Broncos 25, Commanders 19
Lineup locks: Bo Nix, RJ Harvey, Courtland Sutton
Fantasy scoop: When we last saw Denver (Week 11), it was the team's first game of the season without J.K. Dobbins. The RB deployment was as follows: Harvey (37 snaps, 11 carries, 3 targets), Jaleel McLaughlin (8 snaps, 6 carries, 1 target) and Tyler Badie (8 snaps, 0 carries, 1 target). McLaughlin scored the unit's only touchdown, but Harvey was the clear leader, handling 14 touches to a combined eight by the other two backs. Harvey, who has six TDs in 11 games, is on the RB2 radar this week in an excellent matchup against a Commanders defense that has allowed the fourth-most yards and fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Shadow Report: We're upgrading Denver's wide receivers against a struggling and injury-plagued Washington secondary that has allowed the second-most yards, fifth-most TDs (13), third-most fantasy points to receivers as well as the second-highest EPA against the pass. A Washington defense that lost top perimeter corners Marshon Lattimore and Trey Amos for the season has surrendered the most yards per reception (14.3) and yards per target (9.8) as well as the fourth-highest catch rate to wideouts. Sutton and Troy Franklin make for better WR2/3 options this week, whereas Pat Bryant and Marvin Mims Jr. are notable deep sleepers.
Shadow Report: Terry McLaurin and Pat Surtain II have been out the past few weeks, but if both return following their teams' bye week, there's a decent chance they'll be matched up quite often, perhaps even with Surtain shadowing McLaurin on most of his perimeter routes. When we last saw Surtain healthy (Week 8), he was shadowing George Pickens to open the game before leaving injured. Prior to that, he traveled with Calvin Ridley (6.7 fantasy points in the game), Michael Pittman Jr. (8.0), Quentin Johnston (14.9), Ja'Marr Chase (7.3), A.J. Brown (9.3) and Garrett Wilson (4.3). That works out to 8.4 fantasy PPG. Downgrade McLaurin and the rest of Washington's wide receivers against a defense that has allowed the fewest TDs (2), second-lowest yards per target (6.4) and second-fewest fantasy points to receivers.
Over/under: 44.2 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Broncos 69% (seventh highest)
New York Giants @ New England Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 30, Giants 22
Lineup locks: Drake Maye, TreVeyon Henderson, Stefon Diggs, Wan'Dale Robinson
Fantasy scoop: Tyrone Tracy Jr. is red-hot, having produced 23 touches, 130-plus yards and 16-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Despite continuing to share the backfield with Devin Singletary, Tracy has benefited from a high-volume, run-heavy offense during Jameis Winston's two starts. Jaxson Dart's probable return figures to lead to a more balanced offense, however, and Tracy will have his hands full against a Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest yards and touchdowns (3) to running backs this season. Of course, Tracy has come up big against good Detroit and Green Bay defenses the past two weeks, so he's well worth considering for your RB2 or flex slot in Week 13.
Over/under: 51.9 (third highest)
Win probability: Patriots 76% (fourth highest)