Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players and simply don't know which one to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
Our matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups each week, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon season totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or adjusted fantasy points allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it's unfavorable. Also remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and the ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Field Yates explains why Bo Nix is a top-10 quarterback against the Commanders in Week 13.
Matchups highlight: Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (at Washington Commanders). He enjoys the dual benefit of being fresh off his bye week, plus facing one of the position's most favorable matchups. This season, seven quarterbacks coming off the bye have faced a top-8 matchup. Those quarterbacks averaged 20.0 fantasy points, or 4.6 more than their seasonal averages up to that point. Nix is a near-20-point quarterback -- he's averaging 18.0 fantasy points -- and he's going up against the defense that has afforded quarterbacks the most points per pass attempt for the season (0.60).
Others to like: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Tennessee Titans); Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals (at Tampa Bay Buccaneers); Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (at Detroit Lions, Thursday).
Matchup to avoid: Jared Goff, Lions (vs. Packers, Thursday). In the rematch of their Week 1 meeting, in which he scored only 10.90 fantasy points, Goff faces one of the league's best defenses on a short week. The opposing Packers have surrendered only one game worth 20-plus points to a quarterback all season (Dak Prescott, 30.96 in Week 4), and over the past four weeks, they limited Jalen Hurts to 12.02 points (Week 10) and made Bryce Young and J.J. McCarthy look awful (3.46 points combined from them in Weeks 9 and 12).
Sunday matchup to avoid: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston Texans). The Texans are the only team to have not allowed a quarterback to reach 20 fantasy points against them this season.
Running backs
Liz Loza breaks down the fantasy performances of TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson vs. the Bengals.
Matchups highlight: TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots (vs. New York Giants). He didn't have a huge game last week (11.1 fantasy points) in Rhamondre Stevenson's return to action, but Henderson's usage numbers at least offered encouragement for his rest-of-season fantasy potential. The rookie started, played 64% of the offensive snaps and had 21 total touches in a favorable matchup, three times as many as Stevenson. At those levels, Henderson should be able to capitalize upon a similarly excellent matchup against a Giants team that has allowed an average of 38.6 fantasy points to its opponents' top two running backs the past five weeks.
Others to like: Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs. Atlanta Falcons); RJ Harvey, Broncos (at Commanders).
Matchup to avoid: Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday). He has cooled off after a hot start, averaging only 12.5 fantasy points over the past seven weeks after 20.7 in the first five. Additionally, Williams has totaled 47 fewer yards from scrimmage in his past six games (478) compared to in his first five (525), but this is more about the matchup than it is his own performance. The Chiefs have faced a pair of stellar running backs in James Cook III (Week 9) and Jonathan Taylor (Week 12) over the past four weeks, and limited them to a combined 22.1 fantasy points.
Sunday matchup to avoid: Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers (vs. Los Angeles Rams). The Rams have seen only six running backs score double-digit fantasy points against them this season, tied for the fewest in the league.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Michael Wilson, Cardinals (at Buccaneers). Marvin Harrison Jr.'s status (appendectomy) has a bearing on Wilson's fantasy utility, but even if Harrison can play, he's unlikely to be ready to slide directly into his previous role (78% of snaps, 33 routes run per game). Besides, Wilson has done an outstanding job filling in for Harrison the past two weeks, placing third in fantasy points (55.3) and sixth in target share (32.4%) among wide receivers. This matchup provides both players space to succeed, as the Buccaneers have surrendered five outings of 15-plus fantasy points in the past three weeks. Zyon McCollum has been one of the worst-performing cornerbacks this season (26.2 Target EPA, per Next Gen Stats, second worst at the position), while injuries have been a problem and could keep Jamel Dean and/or Benjamin Morrison sidelined.
Others to like: Jakobi Meyers, Jaguars (at Titans); Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (vs. San Francisco 49ers); Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (at Pittsburgh Steelers).
Matchup to avoid: Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears (at Philadelphia Eagles, Friday). He hasn't been nearly the same receiver since the team's Week 5 bye. Odunze has averaged only 9.1 fantasy points with a mere 44% catch rate, both of which trail teammates DJ Moore (11.1, 56%) and Colston Loveland (10.9, 81%) during that time. Odunze has also faced a good share of favorable matchups in that span, but this certainly isn't one. The Eagles have held wide receivers to the third-fewest fantasy points per target this season (1.47) and they've been especially tough against No. 1 receivers the past two weeks, holding Amon-Ra St. Brown (Week 11) and CeeDee Lamb (Week 12) to a combined 17.7 points on 23 targets.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals, Thursday night). Keep picking on the Bengals for tight end matchups, as they are by far No. 1 in that regard. Cincinnati has allowed the most fantasy points per game (22.8), Adjusted FPA (+9.4) and points per target (2.25) to the position, as well as league-leading numbers in those same categories over the past five weeks (23.7, +10.3, 2.37). An opposing tight end has scored at least 10.7 points against the Bengals in each of their past seven games.
Sunday matchup to like: Chig Okonkwo, Titans (vs. Jaguars). Opponents' top tight ends averaged 17.3 fantasy points against the Jaguars in their past eight games.
Matchup to avoid: Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas Raiders). The Raiders' defense has faced 5.6 tight end targets per game (fifth fewest), but they've also held the position to the eighth-fewest fantasy points per target (1.67). Gadsden looks like a touchdown-dependent play considering the matchup, as the Chargers are among the week's biggest favorites (-9.5) in a game with one of the week's lowest over/unders (41.5).