It's nearly fantasy football playoff time, and you know what that means: Squeezing every ounce of production you can out of each lineup slot.
That couldn't be truer than at the team defense/special teams (D/ST) slot, where strategy weighs far greater than raw skill or talent on paper. If you're a believer in the "go with the guys who got you there" approach, you can go with the top three D/STs for the season: the Houston Texans, Seattle Seahawks and Cleveland Browns. But if you're not one of the lucky few fantasy managers who happened to land one of those units, or if your aim is to maximize the output from your D/ST spot in these critical weeks, you've come to the right place.
Keep this in mind: Top defenses over the season's first 12 weeks don't always remain so in the waning weeks. Using 2022-24 results, among top-10 D/STs through the first 12 weeks, only 40% managed a top-10 average over the final six weeks. Volatility among D/STs is as much of a factor at this stage of the season as it is across the first three months.
To adequately prepare you for the final regular-season fantasy weeks and the fantasy playoffs, let's refresh the D/ST road map to cover the season's final six weeks.
Top 10 offenses to exploit
Here are the 10 offenses that, over the past five weeks, have been the best against which to stream D/STs:
1. Cleveland Browns: added 7.5 fantasy points to a D/ST's score on average
2. New Orleans Saints: +6.9
3. Las Vegas Raiders: +4.7
4. Minnesota Vikings: +4.6
5. Arizona Cardinals: +4.3
6. Carolina Panthers: +3.6
7. Los Angeles Chargers: +2.7
8. Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.2
9. Washington Commanders: +1.6
10. Cincinnati Bengals: +1.3
The Tennessee Titans (17th, -1.0), New York Jets (18th, -1.0) and Miami Dolphins (14th, -0.3) have all slipped outside the top 10 since our last update, though all find themselves within two points of the 10th-ranked Bengals. All remain viable matchups and would be in the above top 10 if we used full-season data, but each has made recent, subtle improvements that make a lineup decision less automatic for fantasy purposes. The Titans, for example, have greatly benefited from better ball control in recent weeks, particularly by quarterback Cam Ward (0.5 turnovers the past five weeks, down from 1.4 in the first seven).
Top 10 offenses to avoid
1. Los Angeles Rams: subtracted 7.0 points from a D/ST's score on average
2. Seattle Seahawks: -2.6
3. New York Giants: -2.4
4. Buffalo Bills: -2.2
5. San Francisco 49ers: -1.9
6. Detroit Lions: -1.9
7. Dallas Cowboys: -1.6
8 (tied). Baltimore Ravens: -1.5
8 (tied). Green Bay Packers: -1.5
10. Denver Broncos: -1.4
The Rams leapt from outside this tier to the top spot in their four weeks since the bye, having averaged the most offensive points per game (31.0), fewest sacks allowed (1.0) and fourth-fewest turnovers committed (0.25). Similarly, the Giants' offense has been humming since the switch to Jaxson Dart, as they rank sixth in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric over the past five weeks, compared to 18th over the first seven.
The Indianapolis Colts (13th, -1.3), first on the list in our last update, and Kansas City Chiefs (11th, -1.4) are the two offenses that get bumped, though both are within 0.25 points of making the cut and should therefore generally be avoided.
The D/ST to lock in for the stretch run and playoffs: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Though only 19th in scoring among D/STs for the season, the Bucs have proved their mettle as a matchups-oriented fantasy play. They scored 16 fantasy points in Week 3 against the Jets and 25 points against the Saints, who are both top-six schedule-adjusted matchups using seasonal data. Outside of that, the Buccaneers have faced a treacherous schedule, including games against five of the 10 toughest D/ST matchups (again using seasonal data): the Rams, Lions, Bills, Seahawks and 49ers -- against whom they totaled only 12 fantasy points in those five games.
The final six weeks, however, bring the Buccaneers a schedule in which they face teams that are all among the 14 most appealing D/ST matchups over the past five weeks (top 13 using full-season data): ARI, NO, ATL, @CAR, @MIA, CAR.
Week 13 D/ST recommendations
Buffalo Bills (@PIT): Another Aaron Rodgers (wrist) absence would only boost the appeal of this matchup.
Los Angeles Chargers (LV): They scored 14 fantasy points in the teams' first meeting in Week 2 in Las Vegas.
Miami Dolphins (NO): They've scored seven-plus fantasy points in three of their past four games, despite facing a challenging schedule.
San Francisco 49ers (@CLE): The Raiders just scored seven fantasy points against the Shedeur Sanders-led Browns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ARI): Jacoby Brissett has been fine as the Cardinals' quarterback, but opposing D/STs have averaged 8.3 fantasy points against them since he took over.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Rams (@CAR), Seahawks (MIN).
Avoid: Browns (SF), Packers (@DET), New England Patriots (NYG), Steelers (BUF).
Week 14 D/ST recommendations
This is the final week with teams on bye, with four teams off.
Vikings (WAS): Opposing D/STs have totaled 22 fantasy points in three Marcus Mariota starts since Jayden Daniels' elbow injury.
Buccaneers (NO): They scored a season-high 25 fantasy points -- the second-best score by any D/ST all season -- in their Week 8 meeting.
Titans (@CLE): They've scored 30 fantasy points in their three most favorable matchups (using full-season data).
Commanders (@MIN): Opposing D/STs have averaged 12.3 fantasy points in J.J. McCarthy's six starts this season.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Ravens (PIT), Broncos (@LV), Rams (@ARI), Philadelphia Eagles (@LAC).
Avoid: Lions (DAL), Steelers (@BAL).
Week 15 D/ST recommendations
Panthers (@NO): They've stepped up in the face of other favorable matchups, but to be fair, they scored only four fantasy points in the teams' Week 10 meeting.
Chicago Bears (CLE): Injuries aside, they have scored at least nine fantasy points in each of their three games against top-8 D/ST matchups (using full-season data).
Cowboys (MIN): They've scored in double digits in three of their past four games.
Dolphins (@PIT): Rodgers' status, again, has a bearing here.
Saints (CAR): They scored 14 fantasy points in the teams' Week 10 meeting.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Texans (ARI), Eagles (LV).
Avoid: Lions (@LAR), Rams (DET), Patriots (BUF).
Week 16 D/ST recommendations
Atlanta Falcons (@ARI): Their two best single-game fantasy point totals came in their most favorable matchups (21 in Week 2 @MIN, 15 in Week 12 @NO).
Bills (@CLE): They've averaged 7.2 fantasy points since their Week 7 bye.
Giants (MIN): The Giants bring a lot of downside at D/ST, but the Vikings have been consistently one of the best matchups.
Jets (@NO): They've totaled 24 fantasy points in three games despite their deadline trades.
Buccaneers (@CAR): D/STs have averaged 9.4 fantasy points vs. the Panthers over the past five weeks.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Texans (LV), Lions (PIT).
Avoid: Browns (BUF), Rams (@SEA), Patriots (@BAL), Steelers (@DET), Seahawks (LAR).
Week 17 D/ST recommendations
Bengals (ARI): For all their issues, they did score eight fantasy points against a good Patriots team in Week 12.
Cowboys (@WAS): They scored a season-best 14 fantasy points in the teams' Week 7 meeting.
Giants (@LV): D/STs have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Raiders in three straight games.
Titans (NO): D/STs have averaged 9.3 fantasy points against the Saints since Tyler Shough took over at quarterback.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Browns (PIT), Lions (@MIN), Texans (@LAC), Steelers (@CLE), Seahawks (@CAR).
Avoid: Packers (BAL), Eagles (@BUF).
Week 18 D/ST recommendations
Falcons (NO): They scored 15 fantasy points in the teams' Week 12 meeting.
Bengals (CLE): The last time they faced the Browns (Week 1), the Bengals scored seven fantasy points.
Chiefs (@LV): They matched a season high with 13 fantasy points in the teams' Week 7 meeting.
Buccaneers (CAR): It's a rematch of their Week 16 matchup, but this time at home.
Start 'em (above 50% rostered): Ravens (@PIT), Broncos (LAC), Packers (@MIN), Rams (ARI).
Avoid: Steelers (BAL), Seahawks (@SF).