The latest update to my tri-annual Dynasty 300 has been published and rest assured that it will be updated throughout the preseason. You can see the full rankings, along with some "deeper than the overall 300" rankings at each individual position here. Today, however, let's delve a little bit deeper into some of the decisions which led to this incarnation of the list. Which players rose in the rankings and which ones fell? Are there any positional strategies to consider?
Here are some of the more interesting thoughts that I had while compiling this year's set:
It was quite the battle for the top spot, and while Ronald Acuna Jr. earned my No. 1 overall ranking, 22-year-old Juan Soto -- the league leader in wOBA last season (.478) -- got a long look for the honor. Frankly, if Soto's long-term stolen base projection rose to 15-plus, he'd probably be my choice. However, I've got Acuna projected for well more than double what Soto should contribute in that category over the next half-decade (by roughly a 33-13 margin). Your choice between them comes down to which is more important. Is it those steals or is it Soto's 30 more points of batting average during that same time span? There isn't really a wrong answer here.
Rafael Devers' No. 13 overall ranking is his worst since the 2019 preseason edition and, after a disappointing 2020 that saw him barely make the top 100 on the ESPN Player Rater, one might be surprised he didn't slide further. Still, I wasn't about to downgrade a 24-year-old who is one of only two players (Christian Yelich) to have posted an average exit velocity of at least 92.5 mph and a hard contact rate of at least 42.5% in each of the past two seasons. He also batted .301/.345/.552 with nine home runs and 38 RBI in Boston's final 40 games of 2020, ranking top 30 in fantasy during that time. This could be a rare buy opportunity with Devers, who possesses perennial MVP talent.
The highest-ranked minor leaguer on the list, Wander Franco, has one of the highest-floor skill sets I've seen from a prospect in years. In 175 career games as a professional so far (granted, all of which have come in high Class A or below), he's a .327 hitter with 91.9% contact and 10.8% walk rates, plus an average of 22.4 stolen bases per 162 games played. It doesn't matter whether or not he debuts before June. So long as he's up this season, he's probably going to be regarded as a top-50 player entering 2022, even in leagues that draft fresh annually. Players with this combination of contact ability, plate discipline and raw speed are pretty darned likely to succeed immediately. Quite frankly, No. 28 overall might have been undervaluing Franco.
A pair of Seattle Mariners outfield prospects moved up roughly 20 ranking spots apiece to reach my overall top 40. Jarred Kelenic (No. 32) and Julio Rodriguez (No. 38) represent two of the top prospects in the game, the former with a good chance and the latter an outside chance at a big-league debut in 2021. Kelenic's balanced set of tools makes him a potential five-category standout, probably as soon as 2020. Rodriguez brings potentially prodigious power without the lofty strikeout totals you'd fear from such a bat. Both players earned their generous rankings based upon their 2023-and-beyond projections, but these are prospects who might well advance quickly, à la Juan Soto in 2018. I'm "all in" on both outfielders.
There won't be a DH in the National League in 2021, but the high degree of likelihood that this will be the Senior Circuit's last season in which pitchers routinely bat bolsters the value of 30-year-old Marcell Ozuna. He adapted well to the role in 2020, slashing .362/.464/.691 with 14 of his 18 home runs as a DH. Moving into regular DH duty should fuel a greater number of annual plate appearances as well as diminish his injury risk. By the way, Ozuna's power metrics have all trended upwards over the past three seasons, culminating in career bests in Barrel rate (15.4%) and hard-hit rate (54.4%).
Spencer Torkelson joined Andrew Vaughn as American League Central first base prospects among my top 70 overall dynasty selections, as both have better-than-decent odds of making their big-league debuts in 2021. Torkelson's promotion is the tougher sell of the two, but his Detroit Tigers were aggressive in testing their top prospects in 2020, and he's one of their youngsters most likely to move through the minor league system quickly. We'll see whether third base or first base is his eventual position, but I see no disadvantage to his landing at either spot. First base, after all, isn't as rich with MVP-caliber talent as it once was. In fact, six of my top seven are age-27 or younger but seven of my next 11 within the overall top 150 are on the wrong side of their 30th birthdays, and therefore come with limited upward rankings movement.
As usual, never build your dynasty team around closers, the most volatile of any of the positions in fantasy. Consider that from 2015-19, only four relief pitchers managed at least 30 saves in any three consecutive seasons (Cody Allen, Greg Holland, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel). Even as recently as 2018, three of the six closers who saved 35-plus were Wade Davis, Blake Treinen and Felipe Vazquez. Turnover is quick among closers, and in a fantasy format that rewards long-term building, investing in two-year (or possibly just one-year) performers is a bad idea. I had only six true "finishers" in my top 200, and a common thread among most of them is an elite, 30%-plus strikeout rate (Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz, James Karinchak, Nick Anderson).
Randy Arozarena is outside the top 100? Really? It might be a modest ranking -- his first within any of my Dynasty 300 compilations -- but I'll break all the rules and answer your question with a question. What if his 2020 represents the best year of his big-league career? (Pro-rating it to a 162-game schedule, of course, since it shouldn't be difficult for him to exceed his raw totals.) That's hardly a criticism, as he has the raw ability to deliver 30-homer and 20-steal numbers annually, but his high-strikeout, near-50% ground ball style makes him a potentially streaky performer. That's something that tends to frustrate fantasy managers. I don't see Arozarena's 2021-25 ceiling being much higher than that of a borderline top-50 overall fantasy player.
How to handle Tommy John surgery pitchers is a key to dynasty strategy, and I tend to rank them more optimistically, from a broad perspective, than perhaps most. Remember, many pitchers have made successful recoveries -- Yu Darvish, Greg Holland and Lance Lynn are just three such examples of productive pre-surgery pitchers who returned strong within the past five seasons -- although the common thread with some of the older ones is either a briefer window of elite statistics or greater year-over-year consistency. Mike Clevinger, who will return from his operation as a 31-year-old in 2021, is one of the most recent prominent examples of a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery, his the second of his career. It's tough to make a case to rank him better than the SP32/No. 115 overall that I did, but there could yet be a top-20 fantasy starter's season (or three) in his future, just as I might have overrated him by a good 100 spots.
Victor Robles is at a turning point, and his 2021 will say a lot about his dynasty value. I don't like that he lost 1.3 feet-per-second off his Statcast sprint speed last season compared to his 2019 number, a substantial drop more commonplace from an age-30-or-older player. Robles bulked up during the pandemic, and how he fares during spring training might go a long way towards determining his final ranking before Opening Day. He's got maybe 25 spots' worth of potential upward movement with a strong March.
Finally, among some of the starting pitching buying opportunities I see are St. Louis Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty (SP6), whose 2020 numbers were effectively ruined by the team's COVID-19 outbreak interrupting his scheduling rhythm but who might well be one of the best pitchers around whom to build; MacKenzie Gore (SP19), who has ace potential but might not have a place in the San Diego Padres' rotation all year, perhaps deflating his trade stock; Dustin May (SP24), who has the look of a pitch-to-contact type but who struck out 23% of the hitters he faced in Double- and Triple-A and would take a huge step forward with more reliance on a strikeout pitch; Casey Mize (SP45), who struggled in his first taste of the majors but nevertheless possesses front-of-the-staff stuff; and Max Meyer (SP58), whom many at the time of his draft selection felt he'd be more suited to close, but who should get a long look first as a starter in a Miami Marlins organization that can certainly use rotation help.