Few are likely to select young Detroit Tigers prospect Spencer Torkelson over old Minnesota Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz for 2021 fantasy baseball purposes, but everything is different in a dynasty league. There we see young, potential keepers with endless possibilities tantalizing us because they could lead to multiple fantasy championships, and fantasy managers simply cannot help themselves, dreaming of Torkelson emerging as the next fantasy star as Cruz slips off into the sunset.
Sure, that could happen, but are we not all playing to win fantasy championships in 2021 and 2022, too?
My beloved ESPN colleague and Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast partner Tristan H. Cockcroft expertly balances current and future fantasy value in his annual dynasty rankings, and it is hard to find too much fault. Then again, finding fault is exactly my assigned directive in this column, though it often comes down to simple philosophical differences. He wants to win his myriad leagues in 2021, too, from redraft formats to dynasty ones, and based on precedent, he probably will.
For me it comes down to not only trying to win right away -- because those flags do fly forever, you know -- but also it is about what we know versus what we do not know. Perhaps Torkelson, 21, debuts early this season for the big league Tigers at a corner infield position and figuratively lights the league on fire, torching pitchers left and right. It could happen. What could also happen is that Torkelson spends all of 2021 in the minor leagues, and we go through this dreaming process again next year. Torkelson could be awesome, but it might not happen for years. We all loved Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell a year ago, and still do, but I would argue we love him just a little bit less today.
Then again, Cruz, 40, is awesome right now. Only seven players posted an OPS higher than his .992 mark in the abbreviated 2020 season, and three of them, including the awesome Mike Trout, merely finished a shade ahead at .993. Exit velocity and barrel metrics supported Cruz's success, too, just like in recent seasons. Only seven hitters smacked more home runs and since the start of 2019, only four players have more home runs. Trout boasts a higher slugging percentage in that period, and nobody else.
Cruz is aging gracefully and while his production should be slowing down, it is showing literally no signs of this. Perhaps it happens this year, perhaps not. The Twins and Cruz agreed to a one-year contract, but that does not mean he retires come November, either. Cruz could keep hitting at this level for years and I would hate to pass him by for an unproven prospect who might be awesome, but is not awesome yet. In addition, even in dynasty formats in which one can keep most or all of the roster, things change quickly and we have no idea how things look three, four years away. We are all still waiting for Nick Senzel, Brendan McKay and Brendan Rodgers to star, while Cruz is starring now!
I suppose that is the crux of my argument, that I would have a tough time in a startup dynasty league letting Cruz fall too far, and chances are good that I would end up with him, unless someone shares my philosophy. Tristan ranks Torkelson and a slew of other unproven but tantalizing prospects in his top 100, which is entirely sensible. I might do this as well. Cruz, meanwhile, lags way, way behind, barely in the top 200. We differ there. In fact, despite being nearly twice his age -- Cruz over Tork, not me over Tristan! -- I am not sure I would choose Torkelson over Cruz at all. Win now with what you know and worry about three years from now, well, later.
So now that I have somewhat embarrassed myself by recommending one of the oldest players in baseball, here are some other random thoughts from Tristan's fantastic rankings. Seriously, he wins leagues. Listen to him.
The top 10: No big surprises at the top of the rankings, though I found a few things interesting. One, just like the 2021 redraft rankings, he expects good things from Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and Rafael Devers in the short- and long-term. Yelich is the only one of the group closing in on 30 years old, though. Does he deserve similar treatment? Toronto's Bo Bichette leapfrogs myriad veteran performers, which could be correct, but seems a tad risky. We also see nary a pitcher at the first-round level, which is smart because hitters are absolutely safer in terms of injury, and more reliable for performance.
Wander Franco is different: The Tampa Bay Rays teenager - he turns 20 soon on March 1! - does feel like a generational talent, and he feels darn close to the major leagues as well. In fact, I prophesied that the contending Rays were likely to promote Franco in 2020 to handle third base for a playoff run. They exercised patience in that respect, but I think Franco is ready for the majors and we could see him before May 1. Tristan ranks the acknowledged top prospect in the sport in his top 30, ahead of proven veterans Nolan Arenado, Corey Seager and Lucas Giolito. It seems aggressive, but fair.
Catchers are different: I rarely invest much in the catching position for either the short- or long-term, thanks to the demands of the position and volatility, so I admit to mild surprise that Philadelphia Phillies backstop J.T. Realmuto earned a ranking similar to his 2021 redraft status. Realmuto turns 30 before Opening Day. Nobody quarrels with recent production but catchers usually age at a different pace than others, and physical issues often derail them not only from playing as much as they like, but also from achieving typical offensive production. No catcher would make my top 100 here, and I would think about Realmuto versus Dodgers youngster Will Smith, too. Ultimately, I would invest elsewhere.
No relief: We see so much turnover when it comes to saves that I similarly avoid thinking certain relief pitchers will end up special in that regard. Take Milwaukee Brewers lefty Josh Hader, strikeout option extraordinaire. He might not even be a lock for saves this season, thanks to the presence of right-hander Devin Williams. Predicting save totals years from now, yet alone months away, is dangerous. Again, this probably means I simply build my roster elsewhere, loading up offensively and with strikeout rotation options in the first half of a dynasty draft, and seeking saves on a year-by-year basis. We think young Cleveland right-hander James Karinchak is the next dominant closer, but not even Cleveland knows for sure, and there is a greater rate of injury for the elite hard-throwers.
Rocky mountain way: How different would the ranking for Colorado Rockies shortstop Trevor Story be if the dysfunctional organization traded him tomorrow? I doubt we would target Story so early in a redraft or dynasty format. Arenado, now of the St. Louis Cardinals, is of similar age but coming off a lesser offensive season. Frankly, and this sounds odd based on how much fantasy managers rely on Rockies hitters for production, but analyzing the current Rockies I am not sure there is anyone to actually target in a dynasty format. Not to make enemies, but I do tend to invest more in players on better teams, and shall we say better-run organizations.
Young hitters over young pitchers: I coveted Chicago White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech in a dynasty draft a few seasons ago, and still await the payoff. Lesson learned or bad example? Kopech, among the hardest throwers in the sport, needed Tommy John surgery during the summer of 2018. Perhaps he will recover fully and dominate in 2021, but again, that was a significant wait. Tristan ranks the top hitting prospects over the top pitchers, generally, and he should, but with so many young strikeout hurlers burning fantasy managers, I do not know if I could invest in the likes of MacKenzie Gore - over Max Scherzer! - Nate Pearson and Casey Mize to the same level of these rankings. Kyle Hendricks might be boring, but he is underrated.
The endgame: Going against my argument, one reason to invest in so many prospects in a dynasty league is because so many useful veterans should be available late, perhaps even after your draft ends. Torkelson and Chicago White Sox slugger Andrew Vaughn should be great, and if you have to wait for them, well there are always Brandon Belt and Carlos Santana types easily accessible. Tristan's top 300 closes with myriad prospect types, which I agree with, but just be sure if you invest that you can exercise the proper patience to wait for them to emerge.