This is the fourth installment of potential breakout players for the 2012 college football season. The first three reviewed quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers. Today's subject is defensive players.
As was the case with the earlier reviews, the process starts by defining what the term "breakout player" means.
The first criterion was to rule out any player who made the official first- or second-team all-conference selections. Next, a combination of game tape and metric reviews were performed to cull the best candidates among the contenders.
Taking these factors into account, the following list of top five breakout defensive player candidates was created (ranked in order of the likelihood that they will have a strong 2012 campaign).
1. Denicos Allen, LB, Michigan State Spartans
To get an idea of just how great Allen was this past year, consider that the Michigan State defense had two first-team All-Big Ten selections and three second-team All-Big Ten picks, yet the player with the highest production points total (a measurement put together by the Michigan State coaches) was none other than Allen.
He ranked second in the Big Ten in sacks (11), was fourth in the conference in tackles for loss (18.5) and, as ESPN Big Ten blogger Brian Bennett noted, he was also capable of making plays that look like they were scripted by Hollywood.
That Allen was able to do all this after having moved from safety to outside linebacker during the 2011 spring practice is simply amazing. Since he is helping man a linebacking corps that is one of the best in the Big Ten, the odds are quite high he won't stay under the radar for much longer.
2. Carrington Byndom, CB, Texas Longhorns
I noted in a recent Insider article that the Longhorns should be considered the favorites to win the Big 12 conference in 2012 in large part because of the strength of their secondary.
Two of the cornerstones of that group, cornerback Quandre Diggs and safety Kenny Vaccaro, made the official Big 12 all-conference rosters, but Byndom may actually have been the best player in the Texas defensive backfield.
Byndom allowed only 54 net yards on 19 targets against Justin Blackmon and Jeff Fuller last season, two of the best pass-catchers in the Big 12. His 6.2 yards per attempt (YPA) allowed total was better than the YPA marks posted by Alabama Crimson Tide cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (6.6) and LSU Tigers cornerback Morris Claiborne (7.5), two coverage specialists who will likely end up selected in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft.
In addition, it cannot be forgotten that one of those targets against Fuller turned into a 58-yard pick-six that provided a much-needed spark to help Texas overcome a 16-7 halftime deficit to defeat the Aggies 27-25.
3. Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU
Mingo had some terrific statistics last year (a team-leading 13.5 tackles for loss being chief among them), but the best way to illustrate his impact may be by taking a closer look at how he made an impact play on nearly every Georgia Bulldogs drive after LSU fell behind 10-0 in the early stages of the first quarter of that contest.
Bulldogs drive No. 3: Mingo accurately recognizes a bootleg pass and gets into the backfield for a quarterback hurry on Aaron Murray that helps force an incompletion.
Bulldogs drive No. 4: Mingo beats a double-team block by Cordy Glenn (a first-team All-SEC selection) and Kenarious Gates to get a quarterback hurry that forces another incompletion.
Bulldogs drive No. 6: Mingo bursts past Justin Anderson so fast that Anderson doesn't even get a hand on him. Mingo reaches Murray within 2.5 seconds of the snap and is instrumental in helping Sam Montgomery rack up an 11-yard sack.
Bulldogs drive No. 7: Mingo fights off a cut block by Anderson and jumps into the air just in time to knock down Murray's attempted pass to Carlton Thomas.
Bulldogs drive No. 8: Mingo bull-rushes Anderson into the backfield and reaches over his shoulder to impact Murray's attempted pass to Malcolm Mitchell. The ball ends up slightly underthrown and Tharold Simon is able to knock it down. A perfectly thrown pass in stride could have turned into a 74-yard touchdown to give Georgia a 17-7 lead that may have dramatically changed the eventual result of that contest.
Mingo did all this in his first year as a starter, so just imagine how high his performance ceiling can be as he gets more experience under his belt.
4. Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State Cowboys
My scouting eye said Gilbert is one of the best cornerback prospects I've seen in many years, and after running some numbers on him, it turns out his metrics back that assessment up.
Gilbert tallied a 5.2 overall YPA on 53 targets, totals that were highlighted by a 6.8 vertical YPA (on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and an 8.5 stretch vertical YPA (on passes thrown 20 or more yards), both of which are dominant totals.
That type of coverage skill alone would get Gilbert on this list, but he went a step further by adding the rare perfecta of elite coverage skills and elite ball-hawking. His five interceptions were tied for second in the Big 12, and he nearly picked off six other passes. It should be a lot of fun to see who wins the battle for best cornerback tandem in the Big 12 honors between Byndom/Diggs and Gilbert/Brodrick Brown (6.9 YPA, first-team All-Big 12 last year).
5. Jonathan Brown, LB, Illinois Fighting Illini
It is rare when someone who posts numbers of Brown's caliber does not make an all-conference squad.
According to cfbstats.com, Brown's 1.63 tackles for loss per game ranked second in the Big Ten (behind fellow Illini defender Whitney Mercilus) and sixth in the FBS. He was also tied for the most overall tackles for loss in the Big Ten.
Brown was quite consistent in his performance, as he posted double-digit tackle totals in six of his last eight games.
The problem for Brown is that he missed one game due to a suspension for what occurred against the Northwestern Wildcats. It is entirely possible that Brown's omission from the all-conference squad happened in part because of this incident.
Getting a year removed from that should give Brown something of a clean slate, and he should benefit from the aggressive play calling of new defensive coordinator Tim Banks. As long as he doesn't have another suspension issue, an All-Big Ten nomination should be in his future.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."