One of the things that made the Heisman Trophy-winning season of Robert Griffin III (aka RG3) so exciting is that it seemed to come out of nowhere, statistically speaking.
He ranked 29th in the FBS in passer rating in 2010 and posted a 22-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Those numbers were good enough to give RG3 an All-Big 12 second-team selection at quarterback (ahead of Landry Jones and Blaine Gabbert) but they didn't seem to bode well for a Heisman Trophy run.
Looking back on it, there were some signs that pointed toward Griffin possibly having a breakout 2011 campaign. During the 2010 season he had five games with a 150 or higher passer rating against teams from BCS conferences, and in four of those games he posted a yards per attempt (YPA) mark of 9 yards or higher.
In addition, the Baylor Bears were returning six players who had caught at least 20 passes in 2010, so Griffin had the benefit of working with receivers he was familiar with.
The hindsight that those numbers provide might also give some foresight as to which quarterbacks have the best chance in 2012 of replicating Griffin's meteoric rise, so I decided to take a closer look at the metrics of every returning starting quarterback from the 2011 season to see who best matches Griffin's 2010 metric highlights.
It turns out there are more than a few players who should have a good chance of achieving RG3-like superstardom in 2012. Some are well known, but others may be just as surprising as Griffin was this year.
Front-runners
(Note: The numbers in the parentheses next to the player's name and school represent the number of BCS games with a 150 or higher passer rating, the number of BCS games with 9.0 or higher YPA and the number of returning pass-catchers with 20 or more receptions.)
Denard Robinson, Michigan Wolverines (6, 6, 2)
Robinson is one of the less surprising names on this list, but he is being added here for a couple of reasons.
First, he is similar to RG3 in that his superb rushing skills sometimes seem to overshadow his incredibly impressive passing abilities.
Robinson was the only quarterback in this analysis to post six games in both the 150 or higher passer rating and 9-yard or higher YPA categories. This achievement is doubly notable when one considers that Robinson was battling a staph infection for at least a portion of the season. There were questions as to whether or not Robinson would be able to successfully adapt to the pro-style offense Brady Hoke brought to Michigan, but these numbers prove Robinson was more than up to the task.
Second, there is a perception that, as talented as Robinson is, he can't take the pounding of a full college football season (which is a prime reason he failed to receive a single vote in the 2011 Heisman Trophy voting -- and did not fare well in the 2011 All-Big Ten team selections either).
The Wolverines are considering numerous options to fix this, including more frequent use of the "Deuce" quarterback package with Devin Gardner. If it works, Robinson will finally get just as much attention late in the year as he has early in the year the last two college football seasons.
Bryn Renner, North Carolina Tar Heels (6, 3, 2)
Renner is the best quarterback most people have never heard of. He led the ACC in passer rating, yards per pass attempt and completion percentage this year. Despite this performance, Renner was not selected as the first-team or second-team quarterback on the 2011 All-ACC team. Look for him to be a strong contender for one of those spots in 2012.
EJ Manuel, Florida State Seminoles (5, 4, 4)
The most notable part of Manuel's totals is that he posted them despite missing most of the Oklahoma game and all of the Clemson game due to injury. Three weeks after the Sooners contest, Manuel posted the first of five consecutive games with a passer rating of 150 or higher, so he is definitely the type of player who can keep a hot streak going for a while.
Tajh Boyd, Clemson Tigers (6, 3, 4)
Boyd looks like a no-brainer addition to this list, but his candidacy for dominant play in 2012 actually is a bit problematic.
He played incredibly well in many contests early in the season (150 or higher passer rating in all but one of his first eight starts) but then fell off dramatically after that (a 117 or lower passer rating in three of his last five starts).
Some of that drop-off had to do with offensive line injuries that required the shuffling of the entire offensive front wall, something that doesn't bode well given that Clemson's offensive line will lose four of its five starters to graduation.
That's the potential downside, but it was also Boyd's first year as a starter. Give him a second season working under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Chad Morris (who is so highly valued that Clemson recently signed him to a lucrative six-year contract extension) and throwing the ball to Sammy Watkins (Todd McShay's pick for college football freshman of the year) and Boyd should be able to handle the adversity of a season even more adeptly next time around.
Those four top the list, but there are a couple of other strong contenders worth noting.
AJ McCarron, Alabama Crimson Tide (5, 3, 1)
The Crimson Tide's defense gets all of the attention in Tuscaloosa, but McCarron more than held his own against a very tough slate of SEC defenses (149.8 passer rating, tops in the conference). A good game in the BCS title matchup against LSU could serve as a great springboard to raise his name recognition heading into the 2012 season.
Keith Price, Washington Huskies (4, 4, 4)
Price ended the regular season ranked 12th in the FBS in passer rating despite battling multiple knee injuries. He also has one of the best up-and-coming tight ends in college football in Austin Seferian-Jenkins.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."