Signing day is just around the corner, and that means most minds are currently on players who will be the stars of their teams in 3-4 years.
As compelling as the recruiting battles are, for a change of pace I thought it might be fun to take a closer look at some of the players currently on college rosters who have a high-percentage chance of having a breakout season in 2012. This was done with quarterbacks in December, so this time around the focus will be on running backs.
We started by defining what the term "breakout player" means (we ruled out anyone who was a first- or second-team all-conference selection, or combined more than 200 carries and 1,000 yards last season). We then put together five guidelines that serve as good identifiers for potential upside: 2012 schedule strength; the number of returning starting offensive linemen on the running back's team; his season-long yards per carry (YPC) total; his good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) mark against his 5-6 toughest run defense opponents in 2011 (the GBYPA metric is a tape-based statistic that gauges how productive a running back is when given good blocking); and his team's run-blocking win rate against those same foes.
Taking into account all these factors, we created this list of the top five breakout running back candidates (ranked in order of the likelihood that they'll have strong 2012 seasons):
1. Curtis McNeal, USC Trojans
Schedule strength: Moderate
Returning starting offensive linemen: 4
YPC: 6.9
GBYPA: 10.9
Team run-blocking win rate: 50.9 percent
Just about every indicator says that McNeal will have a fantastic 2012 season. His GBYPA and the Trojans' run-blocking win rate were both the best of this group, and McNeal's 6.9 YPC were the 10th-best in FBS last season among running backs with 100 or more carries.
Losing surefire first-round NFL draft pick Matt Kalil at left tackle is a negative, but getting the other four starting offensive linemen back means the quality portion of these numbers can be replicated. And since McNeal is likely to get a significant portion of the 125 carries Marc Tyler (lost to graduation) posted last season, it means McNeal's chances of getting an increased quantity of carries are also quite strong.
2. Eddie Lacy, Alabama Crimson Tide
Schedule strength: Moderate
Returning starting offensive linemen: 4
YPC: 7.1
GBYPA: 10.4
Team run-blocking win rate: 44.4 percent
To get an idea of just how good Lacy could be, consider that in the five-game sample used for this review (Penn State Nittany Lions, Florida Gators, Vanderbilt Commodores and both games against the LSU Tigers), the other Crimson Tide ball carriers posted an 8.8 GBYPA total. That is more than a yard lower than Lacy's 10.4 mark in that metric.
To be fair, a good percentage of Lacy's carries occurred in the later portion of games after the opposing team was worn down from dealing with the powerhouse running of Trent Richardson, but that total still bodes well for Lacy's ability to replace Richardson as Alabama's bell cow runner.
3. Kenjon Barner, Oregon Ducks
Schedule strength: Moderate
Returning starting offensive linemen: 3
YPC: 6.2
GBYPA: 10.4
Team run-blocking win rate: 47.7 percent
A recent Insider article detailing how some of the top college football programs will replace early NFL draft entries showed that Barner's 10.4 GBYPA was more than equal to LaMichael James' total in that metric.
The Ducks' run-blocking win rate was also quite impressive, so much so that Barner would likely have ranked higher than this were it not for Oregon losing two starting offensive linemen to graduation. Losing quarterback Darron Thomas also could cause some early transition issues, even though Bryan Bennett, Thomas' likely replacement, should be able to put together a strong season.
4. Le'Veon Bell, Michigan State Spartans
Schedule strength: Favorable
Returning starting offensive linemen: 4
YPC: 5.2
GBYPA: 8.1
Team run-blocking win rate: 36.4 percent
Bell could be the biggest sleeper of this group, because the numbers may belie the true strength of the Spartans' run-blocking wall.
Michigan State had to deal with four starting combinations on its offensive line last season. It used three centers, one of whom was a converted defensive tackle (Blake Treadwell) and another was a redshirt freshman (Travis Jackson).
The Spartans' left tackle, Dan France, was also a former defensive lineman who was in his first year as a starter. In addition, Michigan State began the season with a promising redshirt freshman at right tackle (Skyler Burkland) but lost him to a fractured ankle in the third game of the season.
That Bell still managed to post quality numbers despite all the turmoil up front speaks quite well for his talents. Now, just imagine how productive he can be as the Spartans get more stability and experience with their four returning starters on the offensive line.
5. Malcolm Brown, Texas Longhorns
Schedule strength: Very favorable
Returning starting offensive linemen: 4
YPC: 4.3
GBYPA: 6.8
Team run-blocking win rate: 44.3 percent
The Longhorns' schedule strength is based on a projection that could change somewhat as the Big 12 finalizes its 2012 slate, but it was still favorable enough to make colleague Ryan McGee's list of the top 10 early schedule winners of 2012.
Add that to the four returning starters on the offensive line and things would seem to look great for Brown the upcoming season.
Well, they would until one reviews Brown's YPC and GBYPA totals, both of which ranked dead last in this comparison. It's not as if the Longhorns had a bad run-blocking win rate, either, so some of this has to fall on Brown. If the schedule stays just as favorable and Brown can improve his yards per carry rates, an All-Big 12 conference honor could be in his near future.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."