This is the third installment of potential breakout players for the 2012 college football season. The first two reviewed quarterbacks and running backs, and today's subject is pass-catchers.
Just as was the case with the earlier reviews, the process starts by defining what the term "breakout player" means.
The first criterion is to rule out anyone who was a first- or second-team all-conference selection or had 1,000 or more receiving yards. Next, a set of criteria was used to identify potential upside: yards per reception, receptions per game, yards per attempt, vertical yards per attempt (productivity on passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield), schedule strength and strength of quarterback (as determined by passer rating).
Taking these factors into account, the following list of the top five breakout wide receiver candidates was created (ranked in order of the likelihood that they will have a strong 2012 campaign).
(Note: The statistics for each player are based on a review of a large sampling of either BCS conference competition and/or bowl-caliber opponents and include yardage and attempts on penalty plays such as pass interference, defensive holding, etc.)
1. Jaz Reynolds, Oklahoma Sooners
YPR: 15.9
RPG: 4.6
YPA: 10.7
VYPA: 13.0
Schedule strength: Favorable
Strength of QB: Very strong
Everything looks to be lining up for Reynolds to have a fantastic 2012 season. His above numbers are augmented by a superb 8.9 YPA on short passes (aerials thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield).
The Sooners' schedule is somewhat in limbo, but the Big 12 secondaries as a whole are weak against the pass, so the schedule strength should remain as good or better than this no matter how it pans out. Add in a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Landry Jones and an increased workload now that wide receiver Ryan Broyles is no longer in the Oklahoma picture, and it should equal a possible Biletnikoff Award-caliber season for Reynolds.
2. Cody Hoffman, Brigham Young Cougars
YPR: 15.2
RPG: 5.0
YPA: 10.1
VYPA: 12.1
Schedule strength: Very favorable
Strength of QB: Very strong
Hoffman may have been the most impressive player of this group in 2011, not only because of his quality metrics across the board but also because of his prowess in running the route tree. Hoffman was thrown a pass on each of the 10 basic route types and also had targets on curls, fades and option routes against zone defenses. Catching three touchdown passes in a bowl win against Tulsa also showed his big-game potential.
Hoffman's upside becomes clearer when noting that the Cougars had the most favorable schedule of any of these five teams and should get even better play out of quarterback Riley Nelson, who had to fight through a collapsed lung and rib injury late in the 2011 season.
3. Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia Bulldogs
YPR: 16.0
RPG: 3.8
YPA: 11.1
VYPA: 14.7
Schedule strength: Moderately favorable
Strength of QB: Very strong
Mitchell was nearly placed at the top of this list. He not only had the highest overall YPA and VYPA of the group, he also topped the list in the stretch vertical YPA category, which measures productivity on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield. His 278 yards on 14 targets at this depth level led to an eye-popping 19.9 total in this category.
The two reasons Mitchell fell short of the top spot are the Bulldogs' returning crew of pass-catchers -- a group that includes Tavarres King, Michael Bennett, Chris Conley and Marlon Brown, all of whom had double-digit reception totals last season -- and Georgia's SEC schedule, which is daunting even if not quite as daunting as it could have been. Even with those hurdles, Mitchell still could end up as the Dawgs' top wideout next season.
4. Keenan Davis, Iowa Hawkeyes
YPR: 13.8
RPG: 5.1
YPA: 8.6
VYPA: 10.9
Schedule strength: Favorable
Strength of QB: Strong
A pessimist might look at Davis' situation and note some of the negatives, such as losing Marvin McNutt to the draft (thus taking away a strong target opposite Davis), Marcus Coker (the Hawkeyes leading rusher in 2011) to an FCS transfer and offensive coordinator Ken O'Keefe (the only offensive coordinator Kirk Ferentz has had at Iowa) to the NFL.
An optimist would note that McNutt really wasn't a dominant wideout (his 9.0 YPA was only slightly higher than Davis'), that O'Keefe often called, as ESPN.com Big Ten blogger Brian Bennett noted, a "buttoned-down style of play" and that Iowa has a potential Big Ten first-team quarterback in James Vandenberg.
Being the top pass-catcher in a situation of this nature could give Davis more than ample opportunity to replicate McNutt's transition from 53 receptions as a junior to 82 receptions and All-Big Ten nominations in his senior season.
5. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Washington Huskies
YPR: 11.5
RPG: 3.5
YPA: 8.2
VYPA: 10.0
Schedule strength: Very favorable
Strength of QB: Very strong
How about one tight end for good measure. And does this sound familiar? A tight end playing for a West Coast team who has the size (6-foot-6, 258 pounds) to overwhelm cornerbacks and safeties and the speed to run past linebackers. His route-running skills are so vast that his team can move him around to a variety of places in a formation to utilize those incredible physical abilities in any manner imaginable. Seferian-Jenkins is so gifted that he contributes to his college's basketball team (11 points and 18 rebounds in 49 minutes against Pac-12 competition).
That description sounds an awful lot like how someone would have described Tony Gonzalez during his days playing for the California Golden Bears. That's a high bar to set for a young player, but Seferian-Jenkins has that type of potential. An All-Pac-12 nomination should be in his near future.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."