There are numerous reasons to not be of a positive mindset when it comes to gauging the state of the Texas Longhorns program.
After all, last year's Longhorns team clinched consecutive losing seasons in conference play for the first time since 1935-38, had a game in which they did not score a touchdown for the first time since 2004 and gave up a combined 141 points to the Oklahoma Sooners, Oklahoma State Cowboys and Baylor Bears.
As painful as those items might be for UT fans to read, there are eight reasons to think that Texas can not only get things going in a positive direction in 2012, but that it can win the Big 12. Here's why the Horns should be considered the favorites to win the league this season.
(Note: All of the metrics listed below are based off of a review of every 2011 contest against BCS conference foes, sans the Kansas game)
1. A shutdown pass defense
Texas ranked first in the Big 12 in passing yards per attempt (YPA), passer rating and passing yards per game allowed, but the real upside for this defense can be found in its showing in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric.
BDR measures how often a passer makes a mental mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover (such as a dropped interception).
The Texas defense had a phenomenally high 5.7 percent BDR last year. To get an idea of just how dominant that is, consider that the Alabama Crimson Tide defense posted a 4.6 percent BDR in an eight-game review of its season. And Texas did this while facing the Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M Aggies' passing offenses, while Alabama was facing a string of injury-riddled or otherwise limited SEC passing games.
The Longhorns defense was even better on vertical passes (those thrown 11 or more yards downfield), as they had a 9.9 percent BDR rate on those aerials.
Texas also allowed only 8.6 YPA on vertical routes, which is almost identical to the 8.0 vertical YPA posted by Alabama's national title-winning unit. This is a unit that should continue to force mistakes.
2. Terrific cornerback play
The Horns' dominant coverage metrics were posted in large part because Texas boasted one of the best cornerback tandems in college football in Carrington Byndom and Quandre Diggs. Check out their metric totals by route depth:
For comparison's sake, consider that last season Alabama cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick posted a 6.6 total YPA and LSU Tigers cornerback Morris Claiborne notched a 7.5 total YPA. In other words, from a YPA allowed perspective, the Longhorns cornerbacks played just as well as the two of the top-rated cornerbacks in the 2012 NFL Draft.
Byndom also showcased his skills by allowing only 48 yards on 10 targets against Oklahoma State star Justin Blackmon and 6 net yards (if penalty yards are accounted for) on 9 targets against Texas A&M's Jeff Fuller.
That's 54 net yards on 19 targets against two of the best pass catchers in the Big 12, which is an amazing achievement that shows why Byndom could be a future first-round NFL draft selection himself.
3. Strong run defense numbers
Texas ranked first in the Big 12 in rush yards and rush yards per game allowed, and second in rush yards per attempt allowed. They were also one of only seven teams to allow fewer than 100 rush yards per game on average.
Defensive coordinator Manny Diaz should be in good shape personnel-wise to repeat this performance in part because he will be able to rely on Alex Okafor, the foundation of a very deep defensive line who Mel Kiper had rated as the number one returning senior defensive end in college football.
4. Lots of returning starters
Speaking of returning starters, Texas has a ton of them -- 10 on offense (most in the Big 12) and 7 on defense. The Longhorns' 17 overall returning starters ranks third in the Big 12 and 20th nationally.
5. The makings of one of the best rushing attacks in college football
Defense isn't the only reason to be positive about Texas' chances this season, as the Horns are also very close to having a dominant rushing attack.
Texas ended last season ranking 21st in the FBS in rushing yards per game. What makes that number even more impressive is that a tape review of the Longhorns' run-blocking performance last year showed that they actually posted quality numbers in the good blocking metric.
The Longhorns could also see an immediate impact from top-rated running back recruit Johnathan Gray, who will be joining an already talented backfield unit led by Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron.
6. Underrated wide receivers
The weakest link on the 2011 Longhorns was the passing offense, but even that area of the club has a lot to look forward to this year.
Jaxon Shipley had one of the best freshman receiving seasons in Texas history despite missing three games with a knee injury. To get an idea of just how good he was, consider that his 8.9 YPA on 54 targets was better than South Carolina Gamecocks wideout Alshon Jeffery's 8.0 YPA total on a similar target volume.
In addition, Mike Davis' 6.6 YPA could have been better if not for two overthrown passes on bomb routes that could have added 132 yards and two more touchdowns to his totals.
If Shipley and Davis improve with experience, this group could be more than strong enough to keep defenses honest against the Longhorns' powerful rushing attack.
7. The quarterback play isn't far off from being where Texas needs it to be
It is worth noting that in two of his four seasons as Texas' quarterback, Colt McCoy posted a YPA total of 7.5 and 7.8 yards, respectively. The Longhorns don't need dominant YPA numbers from their passer to be successful if the offense isn't one-dimensional.
David Ash's 6.2 YPA from 2011 certainly falls short of McCoy's marks, but when one considers that he has only been in the program for one calendar year and had very few practice reps before the 2011 season, his numbers don't look as bad. He does need to make a big improvement in BDR (his 5.3 percent mark here is quite unacceptable) but if he can drop a couple of points off of this metric and add a yard to his YPA, this will no longer be a position of weakness for the Longhorns.
Texas is strong enough in other key areas that it doesn't need star play from the QB position to have success this season, so if Ash shows even marginal improvement over his freshman year performance, the Horns should be in decent shape offensively.
8. The other Big 12 teams took big graduation hits on offense
Big 12 champion Oklahoma State lost its quarterback (Brandon Weeden) and top wideout (Blackmon). Oklahoma lost its top wide receiver (Ryan Broyles) and tight end (James Hanna). Baylor lost Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III and its leading receiver (Kendall Wright).
These losses will go a long ways towards closing the offensive performance gap that plagued the Longhorns last year. That will be a big plus that should help Texas fight its way through a tough early-season stretch of its schedule that includes games at Oklahoma State (Sept. 29), versus West Virginia (Oct. 6) and versus Oklahoma (at Dallas, Oct. 13).
Take all eight of these factors into account, and you can see why the Longhorns look like the team to beat in the Big 12 this season.
KC Joyner, aka the Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He also can be found on Twitter @kcjoynertfs and at his website. He is the author of an annual fantasy football draft guide, which is available, and "Blindsided: Why the Left Tackle is Overrated and Other Contrarian Football Thoughts."