We've reached Week 14 of the NFL season and ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay, Stats & Info's Mackenzie Kraemer and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network are here to tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.
Season ATS (against the spread) records:
Youmans 2-2 (26-20-1 on season)
Kezirian 2-1 (14-19-1)
Bearman 0-3 (13-15-1)
Clay 0-1 (19-9)
Fortenbaugh 1-1 (27-23-1)
Johnson 0-1 (17-21-1)
Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Wednesday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.
1 p.m. games
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 44.5)
Kezirian: I think the 49ers are a legitimate contender, but this is a very difficult ask. San Francisco just played a grueling game in Baltimore and stayed out east for this back-to-back road game. The team is practicing in Florida this week and then will travel to New Orleans. A similar approach worked during the season's first two weeks when the Niners won and covered in Tampa Bay and Cincinnati, but covering +2.5 in New Orleans is a much more difficult request. I'll take the bait with the short number, as I'm unsure I trust Jimmy Garoppolo in the Superdome.
Pick: Saints -2.5
Fortenbaugh: Forget about the 10 days of preparation enjoyed by the Saints entering Week 14, because this is the type of matchup the 49ers' defense lives for, thanks to 40-year-old statuesque pocket passer Drew Brees, who is going to have his hands full in a big way come Sunday. The Achilles heel of the San Francisco defense is the mobile signal-caller, of which Brees is not. Take a look at these splits:
• 49ers defense vs. mobile quarterbacks: 310.5 yards per game, 24.5 points per game (QBs include Kyler Murray (twice), Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson, all of whom rank in the top five in rushing at the quarterback position in 2019)
• 49ers defense vs. other quarterbacks: 221.1 YPG, 10.6 PPG
The New Orleans offense has been stymied by consistent pressure this season, as evidenced in a 12-10 win over the Cowboys (five sacks allowed) and a 17-point loss to the Falcons (six sacks allowed), the two contests that saw the Saints struggle the most to move the football this season. New Orleans is just 3-3 ATS in home games this season, while the Niners are 4-2 ATS on the road as well as 4-0 ATS as underdogs in 2019. Be sure to sprinkle a little on the money line here as well.
Pick: 49ers +2.5
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5, 43.5) at Buffalo Bills
Kraemer: The Bills rank fifth in the NFL in defensive efficiency, but they've faced only one offense all season that ranks in the top 14 in that category. Sure, that came last week in an upset win in Dallas, but they also allowed season-worst marks in yards (426) and yards per play (5.9). Now they have to face the top offense in the NFL, which is built to exploit the Bills' mediocre run defense. The Ravens are averaging 5.6 yards per rush, the best mark by any team since the merger, while the Bills rank 21st in opponents' yards per rush (4.5).
On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen struggles against the blitz, and the Ravens blitz at the highest rate in the NFL. This is a bad matchup for the Bills on both sides. Give me Lamar Jackson and the Ravens laying the points. Jackson is 7-1-1 ATS on the road in his career, including 3-0-1 as a favorite.
Pick: Ravens -5.5
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Bearman: The last time Christian McCaffrey lined up against the Falcons three weeks ago, he was targeted a season-high 15 times and pulled in 11 receptions for 121 yards. In two games vs. the Falcons last year, he was targeted 28 times, with 26 catches for 179 yards. No Texas Instrument needed to calculate 37 catches on 43 targets in the three games is an average of over 12 catches per game (14 targets), which is double the current line of six. And it's not just vs. Atlanta. The Panthers' main weapon has had at least six catches in each of the past four games and in seven of 12 games this season and paces all RBs with 75 receptions and 95 targets. If you don't feel comfortable picking these two teams, head to the prop market.
Pick: McCaffrey over 6 catches
Clay: Devonta Freeman was fairly quiet in his return from injury on Thanksgiving, but the veteran back wasn't short volume with 17 carries while playing 66% of the offensive snaps. Freeman has now reached double-digit carries in eight of his past nine games. Freeman has reached 59 rushing yards in only two games this season, but he hasn't had the pleasure of facing Carolina's weak run defense. Despite ranking 15th in running back carries against, the Panthers' have allowed the third-most rushing yards to the position (1,419). They're allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry, and 11 backs have already reached 59 rushing yards against them this season (four more reached 50 yards). Expect Freeman to have one of his better games of the season while landing closer to 73 rushing yards.
Pick: Freeman over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-7.5, 40.5)
Youmans: The "Red Rifle" is fired up to go out with a bang. Andy Dalton's time in Cincinnati is running out, but the veteran quarterback displayed his resilience and future worth last week by leading the Bengals to their first win in 12 games this season. In windy conditions, Dalton connected on 22 of 37 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown with no turnovers in a 22-6 victory over the Jets. After being benched for three weeks, Dalton played with a purpose, and his teammates followed his lead. The Bengals are on track to get the No. 1 pick in the draft -- and their next franchise QB -- so it would be foolish to win more than one more game in December. Still, Dalton is auditioning for 2020, when he will stay one last season in Cincinnati or play elsewhere after boosting his trade value. Somehow, the Bengals have improved on defense, allowing 13 points per game over the past three.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield has a banged-up throwing hand, and the Browns are ready to fold a losing hand with their playoff chances slipping away. Believe it or not, the Bengals are 4-1 ATS in true road games this season, 8-1 ATS in their past nine on the road and have won four of their past five at Cleveland.
Pick: Bengals +7.5
Bearman: I gave the Bengals out two weeks ago catching 7 vs. Pittsburgh, a game they led at halftime with absolutely no offense behind Ryan Finley. Last week, with Andy Dalton back, they put a hurting on the Jets for their first win of the season. They've covered in four of the six games this season in which they were getting at least a touchdown. While incorrectly picking the over in last week's Jets/Bengals game, I noted the Bengals average over 50 yards more per game with Dalton behind center. As Youmans mentioned, Dalton is likely auditioning for a job for next season and who better to do it against than the rival Browns. Cleveland, after a three-game win streak, came back down to earth last week, struggling against a Steelers team it had just beaten. With playoff hopes fading across Lake Erie for the Browns, I'd rather be on the side of getting more than a touchdown.
Pick: Bengals +7.5
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9, 41.5)
Bearman: The Broncos have had their ups and downs this season, but one trend sticks out. Eight of their 12 games this season have been one-score games, and of the other four, one was a win and one was a one-score game until a late field goal (at Green Bay). Only twice all year (at Buffalo and at KC) have they not been in the game late. A four-win team usually is a four-win team, but they have three losses by two points and blew a huge lead in Minnesota that ended in a four-point loss. They had a big win last week with a rookie QB in Drew Lock and now face a Houston team off its biggest win of the season, a 28-22 victory over New England. The Texans have been a favorite five times this season and are 1-4 ATS, with the lone cover a second-half destruction of the Falcons after trailing by one at the half. The Texans have been a favorite of 9-plus points twice under Bill O'Brien (once with Deshaun Watson) and failed to cover both times. For what it's worth, all five teams that beat the Patriots in 2018 lost the next week (the Ravens did not lose after beating Patriots earlier this year).
Pick: Broncos +9
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-13, 43.5)
Clay: My projection for Kirk Cousins comes in at 19-of-28 for 229 yards against Detroit this week, so I'm grouping all three of these categories together. Having appeared in 12 games this season, Cousins has fallen short of 34 pass attempts seven times, 23 completions seven times and 255 passing yards six times. Cousins has hit these marks more often in recent weeks, but the game scripts usually called for more passing volume in close games against Seattle, Denver, Dallas, Kansas City and even Washington. That doesn't figure to be the case this week as 13-point home favorites against a struggling Detroit team that has lost five consecutive games and is down to David Blough at quarterback. The Vikings remain a run-first team and shouldn't have much trouble leaning on Dalvin Cook and perhaps Alexander Mattison while ahead on the scoreboard this week.
Pick: Cousins under 254.5 passing yards, 33.5 pass attempts and 22.5 pass completions (-110)
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 46)
Youmans: At 6-6, the Colts are still in the playoff hunt, but a loss here would basically bury them six feet under. Adam Vinatieri's kicking woes have probably cost the Colts at least two wins. Indianapolis was in position to beat Tennessee last Sunday before a Vinatieri field-goal attempt was blocked and returned for a touchdown. Vinatieri has a knee injury and might not go this week, and that's not bad news because it should force coach Frank Reich to be more aggressive and stop opting for field goals. If quarterback Jacoby Brissett can bounce back from a poor performance against the Titans, the Colts should show they are the better team in this spot. After a 5-2 start, the Colts are 1-4 in their past five games with three of the losses by four points or fewer. Jameis Winston and the Bucs are 0-4 ATS at home this season.
Pick: Colts +3
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5, 45)
Johnson: It's no secret that since Ryan Fitzpatrick took over under center again in Miami, the Dolphins' games are 5-2 to the over (I spoke to Fitzpatrick's value when he was making his first start during this stretch in Week 7, getting out ahead of a potential over train). The market has been playing catch-up, but I still think a total of 45 in New York this Sunday is too low. Fitzpatrick is at 6.1 adjusted yards gained per pass attempt this season, nearly twice as good as good for Miami as when Josh Rosen was playing quarterback (3.3). Fitzpatrick actually has the eighth-best QBR in the NFL! With a laundry list of injuries to the Jets defense, my projection is 47.6.
Miami still ranks dead last in the NFL in opponent yards per play (6.2) and defensive DVOA despite playing a below-average strength of schedule this season. The Jets put up a dud in Cincinnati in Week 13 in a 22-6 loss, but they had scored 34 points in each of their previous three games against below-average defenses. I'm not suddenly giving up on the Jets offense now in a matchup against the Dolphins. Over 45 is the best bet for me in this one.
Pick: Over 45
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13, 42)
Clay: They've tended to come in bunches in recent weeks, but Aaron Jones has been a premiere touchdown scorer this season with 14 (second-most in the league) in 12 games. Jones is certainly over his head a bit, though his 8.8 OTD is third-highest in the league. Jones' 11 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line are sixth-most in the league. This week, Jones will face a Washington defense that has allowed the second-most rushing attempts (317), third-most carries inside the 5 (16), most touches (387) and third-highest OTD (14.1) to running backs, while allowing nine touchdowns from scrimmage along the way. At +145, "Yes" is an extremely attractive bet.
Pick: Yes to Jones scoring a touchdown (+145)
4 p.m. games
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3, 48.5)
Johnson: The Patriots played man coverage in the first half of last year's AFC Championship game against the Chiefs. (They are the only team to play 100% man coverage in the first half of a game in the past two seasons, by the way). The result was a 14-0 halftime lead. It was the only time Patrick Mahomes has ever been shut out at halftime, and the Patriots held him to 4-for-8 passing for 22 yards.
This season, the Patriots play man coverage a league-high 69% of the time. They allow a league-low 4.2 yards per dropback (the best we have recorded for any team since 2001). Mahomes has had a 32.1-point dropoff in his QBR going from zone to man coverage this season. This is the third-largest among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. Part of the reason for this is because Mahomes leads the NFL with 9.9 yards per pass play against zone coverage. But his struggles against man coverage are still obvious.
This one is fairly simple for me with those numbers and the matchup all pointing to a play against the Chiefs and a play on the under. With the expectation that New England doesn't fall behind early like it did in Houston and focuses on the ground game as well (the Kansas City rush defense is tied for 30th in the NFL), I anticipate a slower game that the Patriots control from the get-go.
Pick: Under 48.5 and Patriots -3
Fortenbaugh: My sincerest apologies, but for as dangerous as Kansas City's offense has proven to be with Mahomes at the controls, I don't see the Chiefs traveling to Foxborough in December and hanging a big number on Bill Belichick one week after the Patriots lost in Houston. The defending champs are permitting an average of just 10.6 points per game at Gillette Stadium this season, and it's worth noting that since Belichick took over as the head coach of the Patriots in 2000, New England is surrendering an average of just 19.2 points per game in the contest following a loss. On the flip side, Tom Brady is in the midst of a serious regression that features a paltry 61.1% completion percentage (second-lowest since 2005) and an unimpressive 6.7 yards per attempt average (lowest since 2002). I'm anticipating anything but fireworks in New England on Sunday.
Pick: Under 48.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 42.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Youmans: If it seems Philip Rivers has the ball with two minutes to go and the Chargers trailing by one score every week, that's close to the truth. Six of the Chargers' 12 games have been decided by three points or fewer or in overtime. Only two of their games have been decided by more than seven points. The Chargers are 3-8-1 ATS this season, including 2-4 on the road. Rivers is known as "Mr. December" for his tendency to heat up in the season's final month. Since taking over as the Chargers' starter in 2006, Rivers has a 43-21 record in regular-season games in December and January. But he just lost to Drew Lock, a rookie making his first start, in Denver and is trending in the wrong direction. Rivers turns 38 on Sunday, but with fading arm strength and the mobility of a mannequin, he could pass for 48.
The Jaguars are hoping to recapture some early-season magic by benching $88 million veteran Nick Foles and recalling rookie Gardner Minshew from the bullpen. In his eight starts, Minshew went 4-4 and passed for 2,010 yards and 11 touchdowns with three interceptions. He also lost seven fumbles. But the hope is he resuscitates a lifeless team, and the Jaguars do need some juice. The Chargers are as cold as a corpse in the playoff race. Take the points, because most games involving Rivers are sloppy for three quarters and wind up as down-to-the-wire thrillers.
Pick: Jaguars +3
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 43) at Arizona Cardinals
Johnson: Caesars is currently offering the Cardinals +2.5 (-105), but there are plenty of +3s (-120) in the market as well. I prefer +3s at -125 or better to the +2.5, but for the sake of this column we'll track my pick at the +2.5. If I didn't draw the line somewhere, then I could just recommend buying points to +7.5, and since we only grade it as either one win or one loss it wouldn't be fair. But if you have access to the 3s at that price, that's what I've bet.
From a sheer market perspective, this number stands out to me because the Cardinals were just +3 last week against the Rams. Either the Rams -3 was the biggest bet of your season last week (well done, you cashed), or you recognize that the Steelers and third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges in the same range in Arizona is an overreaction.
From a matchup standpoint, I think the Cardinals have the formula necessary to negate Pittsburgh's biggest strength -- its pass rush -- and they certainly aren't in tank mode for a future franchise quarterback in the NFL draft. The Steelers rank No. 2 in the NFL in adjusted sack rate (9.9%). Not only does Kyler Murray's mobility help to evade the Pittsburgh pass rush, but Kliff Kingsbury's offensive system is designed to get the ball out quickly to playmakers in space on short routes. Murray's average time from snap to releasing the pass is the third-shortest among quarterbacks that have played the entirety of the season (2.69 seconds). My raw projection is Steelers -0.4 anyway, so the +3s or cheap +2.5s are worth a bet.
Pick: Cardinals +2.5
Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 47.5) at Oakland Raiders
Kezirian: Among the more underappreciated NFL storylines is what Ryan Tannehill has done for the Titans offense. Since replacing an ineffective Marcus Mariota, Tennessee has won five of six games. All six of those games have gone over the total. With Tannehill as the starter, Tennessee has an offensive efficiency of 58.51 compared to 35.57 when Mariota starts. Obviously, we need some scoring from Oakland, which has mustered only single-digit outputs in the past two games. But the Raiders return home, and I am hoping for a decent performance to help push this over the total.
Pick: Over 47.5
Fortenbaugh: This is a great spot to buy low on the Raiders, who are off back-to-back losses in which they decimated by an embarrassing combined score of 74-12. But take note that both of those abominations took place on the road. This is a critical factor worthy of consideration because the Silver & Black are a healthy 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread when playing at the Coliseum this season while permitting a respectable 20.4 points per game. As for the suddenly surging Titans, this is an interesting spot for Mike Vrabel's crew thanks to back-to-back road wins against divisional opponents (vs. Jacksonville, at Indianapolis) with another divisional showdown on deck (vs. Houston). Given the scenario, it would be very easy for Tennessee to dismiss the Raiders here.
Pick: Raiders +2.5
8:20 p.m. game
Seattle Seahawks (-1, 47) at Los Angeles Rams
Youmans: Two weeks after getting humiliated by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, the Rams get a second chance against the other leading MVP candidate. Russell Wilson is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS on the road this season, so it might not be a stroke of genius to bet against the Seahawks, the No. 2 seed in the NFC. But I'll do it anyway.
This is a redemption game for Sean McVay, who is 11-4 SU in division play as Rams coach. In a strong bounce-back performance after the Baltimore debacle, the Rams rolled to a 34-7 win at Arizona. Jared Goff passed for 424 yards and two touchdowns, Todd Gurley carried the ball 19 times for 95 yards and the Rams dominated in total yards, 549 to 198. Of course, the Cardinals are passive birds, and the Seahawks are a different animal, literally. Seattle was a 1.5-point favorite when it won the first meeting 30-29 on Oct. 3. Wilson found a way in that one. This time, McVay finds the way to the win column.
Pick: Rams +1
Fortenbaugh: I simply cannot get on board with this Seahawks club at this price. Don't get me wrong, Wilson and Pete Carroll have done a remarkable job in 2019, but Seattle is a league-best 10-2 with a highly suspicious plus-36 point differential (10th in the NFL) and an astounding 10 games decided by one score. In my opinion, those results simply aren't sustainable and indicate that this house of cards is set to tumble. Los Angeles was a 44-yard field goal away from upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 5, but Greg Zuerlein missed wide right. This time, it's Los Angeles that has the advantage due to a short week of preparation for a Seahawks team that just played the Vikings on Monday night.
Pick: Rams +1
Clay: Wilson currently leads the NFL with 26 touchdown passes after totaling 35 in 2018 and 34 in 2017. He's thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of 12 games this season after throwing two or more in 13 of 16 last season and in 12 of 16 in 2017. Seattle is a run-first team but has scored 68% of its offensive touchdowns through the air, which is 12th-highest in the league (67% expected pass TD rate based on playcalling ranks 11th). The Rams present a relatively neutral matchup, as they've allowed 18 passing touchdowns this season, which ranks 16th in the league. Wilson tossed four touchdowns on only 23 pass attempts when these teams met in Week 5. The over is enticing here, even at -130.
Pick: Wilson over 1.5 pass TDs (-130)