Week 6 is in the books, and as division matchups run rampant, I found three that I'm betting early in the week. Let's get into it.
Lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Week 7 lines I'm investing in now
New England Patriots (-9.5) at New York Jets
Looking at the DVOA team ratings following the Patriots' win Thursday over the Giants, New England has faced the three worst offenses in the NFL. Of the bottom eight teams, the Patriots have faced five -- and of the bottom 11, they've faced six. The most efficient offense they've seen belonged to those Giants, and they were without Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram traveling into bad weather in Foxborough on a short week.
Now, the Jets' offensive numbers this season grade poorly, but they've played the majority of their snaps with Luke Falk under center (they released him this past week). I was shocked that the market initially reopened the Cowboys-Jets line at +9.5 and +9 after the Sam Darnold news. It was bet down to +7 before New York wound up upsetting Dallas 24-22, but getting 9.5 points with this healthier Jets squad -- even against the Patriots -- is too many. My projection is right at +7.5, and I think my Patriots numbers are probably on the heavy side with how soft their schedule has been.
Pick: Jets +9.5
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
This is a landscape-changing game in the NFC East, and there is value on the road underdog. We've been mentioning it since Week 4, and it's worth mentioning again: The Cowboys played the easiest schedule, according to our FPI, through the first three weeks of the season. At that point, I backed the Saints when New Orleans was getting 2.5 points at home against Dallas. The following week, Green Bay was getting over a field goal. Then yesterday -- the most surprising line of all -- I backed the Jets. Why don't we make it four straight weeks fading Dallas? My projection is Eagles +1.3, and I don't think we can expect the Cowboys to suddenly "get right."
Pick: Eagles +3
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-17, 39.5)
Josh Rosen was pulled for Ryan Fitzpatrick yesterday with the Dolphins trailing 17-3 in the fourth quarter. Magic returned to Fitzpatrick's beard, as he immediately led Miami on two touchdown drives and a 2-point conversion try that would have upset the Redskins. It failed, but it was evident that Rosen isn't the answer at quarterback for the time being. Fitzpatrick is certainly high-variance, and it's something I will embrace when betting the over in this Week 7 matchup in Buffalo.
High-risk and high-reward is Fitzpatrick in a nutshell. Touchdowns are obviously beneficial for over bets, but interceptions can be in certain situations as well. Fitzpatrick led the NFL last season in adjusted interception rate by a huge margin, at 4.9%. Next in the league was 3.8%, and that mark belonged to Josh Allen. Nothing has changed in 2019 for Fitzpatrick and Allen. They both make risky decisions, and considering that Miami has the worst defense in the NFL and Allen will have had a bye week to prepare for it, the Bills should put up points.
I'm taking a small gamble betting over 39.5 early in the week since I'm assuming Fitzpatrick will be the starter in Week 7. But my projection with Rosen under center for the Dolphins is still higher, at 40.8. Forty and 41 are fairly key numbers for a total lined in this range, so if by some chance Rosen is given QB1 duties, it's still a bet I show a slight edge on.
Pick: Over 39.5
Early Week 7 lines
At completion of Sunday night game.
Thursday
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 50) at Denver Broncos
Sunday
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-2.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 48.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 44) at Cincinnati Bengals
Los Angeles Rams (-3, 53) at Atlanta Falcons
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-17, 39.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (PK, 44)
Oakland Raiders at Green Bay Packers (-7, 46.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-10, 42.5) at Washington Redskins
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (Off)
Baltimore Ravens at Seattle Seahawks (-4, 50.5)
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 39)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48.5)
Monday
New England Patriots (-9.5, 42.5) at New York Jets
Byes: Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers