It's Week 14 in the NFL and that means one thing: it's going to be a "must-win" situation for a few teams each week as they make a playoff push during this final stretch of the season. If you follow sports betting analysis regularly, you've heard the must-win narrative ad nauseam. People irrationally expect teams to play above expectation because they find themselves in one of these must-win spots. Breaking news: a team is only as good as they are -- groundbreaking stuff, I know. It amazes me, however, how many times people expect a team to play better than they are (or that the opposition will suddenly perform worse).
If anything, more often than not, there can be value had playing against the team in a must-win situation. This week we are going to do things a little differently. I'm going to dive into the games teams are playing in that I will deem a must-win and see if there is value betting against them. It's a little arbitrary to begin with, but I'm going to look at the teams whose playoff hopes will dwindle if their Week 14 matchup results in a loss. I'll stay away from the games where both squads arguably need a win (Cowboys-Bears and Titans-Raiders). Let's begin.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-8.5, 40.5)
I took a shot on the Browns at +550 to make the playoffs five weeks ago when their schedule began to ease up following their road loss to the Patriots. Unfortunately, they're only 3-2 in their last five games, and I was hoping for 4-1 (the loss to the Broncos was likely the killer). They can still win out and finish 9-7, but that would include beating the Ravens for the second time this season. They will be hosting Baltimore this time around at FirstEnergy Stadium, but a win is still unlikely.
That makes this Week 14 matchup against the Bengals a must-win. Cincinnati stinks. How does Cleveland not roll in a similar fashion to the Miami game in Week 12? The Bengals won last week with Andy Dalton making his return under center.
Betting analysis: There's no doubt the Bengals are better with Dalton over the Ryan Finley experiment, and the market certainly agrees with a strong move from the +10.5s that were around over the weekend before the Week 13 slate kicked off. My projection -- or perceived fair line -- is Browns -8.7. So while at this point there isn't any value betting against the team in the must-win spot, I would certainly recommend proceeding with caution before laying -8.5 with the Browns.
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 47)
I really liked Indianapolis in Week 13 and was shocked by how drastic the market move was on the Tennessee side (even considering the Colts' injuries on offense). I went down swinging, but the Colts did outgain the Titans 5.8 yards per play to 5.0. In fact, they were attempting the go-ahead field goal in the fourth quarter in a tie game when Adam Vinatieri had his kick blocked and returned the other way for a 63-yard touchdown. This was his third miss of the game and second that was blocked. That's my attempt at trying to rationalize my losing bet, but in all reality I wanted an excuse to bet Indianapolis again this weekend. The final score wasn't indicative of the way the game ultimately played out.
Well, now the Colts sit 6-6 and find themselves in a spot that a loss likely eliminates them from playoff contention. Backing the Colts goes against the notion that the must-win teams are overvalued in the market, however.
Betting analysis: It isn't science and it won't always be the case, though, and considering the injuries this past week that may carry over, Bucs -2.5 is very close to where I have it projected (-2.8). The point is this: for someone as tilted about losing his Colts bet as I was (still am) and looking at the spot where we should absolutely expect max effort from Indy, I still can't back them in Tampa Bay this week. Don't pay a premium this time around -- especially with the health uncertainty of multiple players on the Colts side.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5 -120) at Arizona Cardinals
From a matchup standpoint, I think the Cardinals have the formula necessary to negate Pittsburgh's biggest strength -- their pass rush -- and they certainly aren't in tank mode for a future franchise quarterback in the NFL draft. The Steelers rank No. 2 in the NFL in adjusted sack rate (9.9%). Not only does Kyler Murray's mobility help to evade the Pittsburgh pass rush, but Kliff Kingsbury's offensive system is designed to get the ball out quickly to playmakers in space on short routes. Murray's average time from snap to releasing the pass is the third-shortest among quarterbacks that have played the entirety of the season (2.69 seconds).
Betting analysis: The Steelers currently own the six-seed in the AFC playoff picture at 7-5. They have the tiebreaker over the Titans, and both the Raiders and Colts are a game back at 6-6. This isn't as direct of a must-win game for Pittsburgh as some of the other spots in Week 14, but I do think you would be betting a bad number backing the Steelers this week. There are multiple Cardinals +3s currently available in the market at -120 or better, and the reason this stands out to me is that the Rams were just laying the same number in Arizona this past Sunday. Either the Rams -3 was the biggest bet of your season last week (well done, you cashed), or you recognize that the Steelers and third-string quarterback Devlin Hodges in the same range in Arizona is an overreaction. I took +3s that were available and think at a price of -120 or better the Cardinals are a worthwhile bet.
Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) at Los Angeles Rams
In the midst of preparing this article, the Rams line moved from +2.5 to +1.5. This was the lone example this week where I actually showed value on a team in a must-win situation -- and that's because they're going up against a Seahawks team that refuses to lose football games. The Rams are one game back of the Vikings in the wild card race, and dropping to 7-6 with road games against the Cowboys and 49ers on deck would likely do them in.
Betting analysis: My projection is Rams -1.9, but a portion of the edge at +2.5 has been mitigated with the market move. Using +7.5 as a six-point teaser leg through the most key numbers is still a valuable proposition. The Cardinals to +8.5 wouldn't be an awful option to pair it with if you're unable to find them at +3.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5)
I wouldn't have anticipated a 5-7 team in the NFC that is nearly eliminated from wild card contention to be alive in Week 14, but thanks to the Cowboys no longer winning football games either, the Eagles are still just one game out (and have a head-to-head with Dallas remaining). It's somewhat alarming to see a 5-7 team laying 8.5-points that just dropped three straight games including the most recent as a double-digit favorite to Miami. The Giants getting beat up at home by the Packers in Week 13 is playing a role, but my projection is still just Eagles -7.2. This line has moved to 9.5 in the market after news that Eli Manning will start.
Betting analysis: At a buy point of +10 I would be considering the New York side if it showed in the market, but despite the must-win scenario for Philly I think you'd be paying a premium backing the Eagles on Monday night.