The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always.
This week, we're highlighting two conference championship games in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread.
2019 ATS record: 17-25 2019
Closing line value: 23-12-7
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Pac-12 championship
Utah Utes (-6.5, 47.5) vs. Oregon Ducks
FPI prediction: Utah by 0.4
In our total efficiency numbers, Utah ranks fifth and Oregon ranks 12th, which means we actually agree with the general perception that Utah has played better than Oregon this season, even when adjusting for strength of opponent.
Note the past tense.
FPI incorporates past performance from earlier this season into its predictions, but that isn't the entirety of those predictions. Even this late in the season, the model relies to some degree on its priors -- the preseason ratings -- to inform its current ratings. This isn't done arbitrarily; it improves the predictions. For these teams right now, the priors make up about 24% of their current ratings.
In the preseason, FPI was quite fond of Oregon, especially ahead of Utah, which is part of the reason this game is closer to 50-50.
FPI pick: Oregon +6.5
SEC championship
Georgia Bulldogs vs. LSU Tigers (-7, 54.5)
FPI prediction: LSU by 2
The overriding theme here is that while LSU has the clear advantage offensively, Georgia's defensive edge is almost as large. FPI believes that LSU has the second-best offense in college football (narrowly behind that of Oklahoma) and the 14th-best defense going forward. The Bulldogs sit at 13th and fourth in those categories, respectively.
Yes, Joe Burrow is the likely Heisman winner and first overall pick in the draft. He ranks third in Total QBR. But the Bulldogs? They rank third in QBR allowed. This will be Burrow's toughest test so far this season.
Add that the Bulldogs have a special-teams advantage worth about one point and that the game will be neutral-ish because it's played in Atlanta (something FPI takes into account), and our model thinks this game should be a lot closer than most project.
The information that FPI is missing here is the absence of injured wideout Lawrence Cager and a partial absence for half-suspended receiver George Pickens (Cager has missed other games, to be fair). It's no secret then that the Bulldogs will have to rely on the ground game Saturday, but there is a glimmer of hope in that LSU has shown some weakness against the run in recent weeks. Running backs have averaged more than 6 yards per carry the past five games against the Tigers.
FPI pick: Georgia +7