College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.
In Week 15, we examine the history, matchup and betting outlook for each of the 10 conference championship games.
All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.
Pac-12 championship
Utah Utes (11-1, 9-3 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (10-2, 6-6 ATS)
Line: Utah -6.5; Over/Under: 50
Ninth game; favorites 7-1, 4-4 ATS, O/U 4-4
Santa Clara, California, 8 p.m. ET Friday (ABC)
Oregon is 4-2 (3-3 against the spread) versus Utah since the Utes joined an expanded Pac-12 in 2011, which includes a 32-25 Utes victory last season.
One of the common pitfalls of first-time conference championship contestants is feeling too much fait accompli in winning the division, leading to a "just happy to be there" mentality. The teams most susceptible are those who make winning the division a key team goal and speak with the rhetoric of "reaching the conference championship game." A prime example in the Pac-12 was Todd Graham's Arizona State program. Graham repeatedly spoke in terms of winning the South division, and sure enough, when his team finally reached the league title game, it lost straight up as a favorite after the goal he had emphasized all season had already been achieved.
That won't be a problem for Utah, because the Utes lost the Pac-12 title game to Washington last season. Teams that return to a championship game after failing in their first shot often think in terms of "unfinished business." They've already experienced the "just happy to be there" thoughts and are focused on closing the deal the next time around.
Utah has won and covered eight consecutive games since losing at USC, outgaining opponents by an average of 233 yards per game and allowing more than 15 points just once.
This price opened at Utah -4.5 at most early-posting shops, but action on the Utes moved it to -6.5 quickly.
Big 12 championship
Baylor Bears (11-1, 8-4 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1, 5-7 ATS)
Line: Oklahoma -10; O/U: 63.5
18th game overall, third in new format; favorites 13-4, 10-7 ATS, O/U 8-9
Arlington, Texas, noon ET Saturday (ABC)
Oklahoma has won 11 Big 12 championships since Bob Stoops arrived in 1999 (there was no conference title game in 2011-16), including nine of the 13 championship games in the Stoops-Lincoln Riley era. Baylor has completed a UCF-like turnaround from 1-11 in Matt Rhule's first year in 2017 to 11-1 this season.
Baylor built a 28-3 lead when these teams met two weeks ago but didn't score in the second half and was ultimately outgained by 218 yards in a 34-31 loss. The big lead in such a big game was a moment Baylor had never experienced before, and the Bears didn't handle it like veterans. The Sooners laid 11 in that game and are big favorites again, but it's the Bears who have the advantage of aiming for redemption. Any college coach will tell you that it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season, and last year's Oklahoma team didn't do that, beating Texas in the title game after losing the Red River game to the Longhorns during the regular season. The season before, though, Riley and staff did have to get their team ready for a rematch and dispatched TCU 41-17 in the championship after downing a top-10 Frogs squad 38-20 in the regular season.
This price opened as low as -7.5 but has moved toward 10 marketwide.
Sun Belt championship
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (10-2, 9-3 ATS) vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (11-1, 8-4 ATS)
Line: Appalachian State -6; O/U: 56.5
Second game; favorites 1-0, 0-1 ATS, O/U 0-1
Boone, North Carolina, noon ET Saturday (ESPN)
Eliah Drinkwitz is the only first-time head coach in a conference championship game; he also coached the first 11-1 season in Sun Belt history. Most Sun Belt teams take hits to their overall records by playing "money games" against major conference schools, but the Mountaineers won at both South Carolina and North Carolina this season. App State hasn't lost more than one Sun Belt game in any season since 2014 and has defeated every Sun Belt team, save rival Georgia Southern, by double digits the past two seasons.
The Mountaineers are very familiar with Louisiana, having beaten the Cajuns 27-17 in Boone last October as 25-point favorites, then again 30-19 as 17-point chalk in the first Sun Belt title game, then 17-7 in Lafayette this October as 1.5-point underdogs. All three meetings went under the total. This year's regular-season meeting was the first time Appalachian State was an underdog in a Sun Belt game since 2014. This will be the eighth time these teams have met, all Mountaineers victories and all coming since Appalachian joined the Sun Belt in 2014. The Cajuns have yet to hit 20 points or 370 yards in this series.
Second-year Louisiana coach Billy Napier is 0-3 versus App State, 0-3 versus SEC teams, 0-1 in bowls and 17-2 otherwise. He's now a sporty 19-7 ATS in his career.
MAC championship
Miami RedHawks (7-5, 6-6 ATS) vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (8-4, 9-3 ATS)
Line: Central Michigan -6; O/U: 53
23rd game; favorites 14-8, 8-14 ATS, O/U 11-11
Detroit, noon ET Saturday (ESPN2)
One of two first-year coaches to lead his new team to a divisional championship, Jim McElwain completed a one-year worst-to-first turnaround with a Central Michigan team that didn't win a conference game in 2018.
Miami fielded just the 11th-best total offense in the league but rode a stout defense and the best special teams in the MAC to a division crown.
Chuck Martin is 3-0 ATS versus Central Michigan, losing to the Chips in 2014 (his first season) and beating them twice since, but these teams did not play in 2015, 2018 or this season.
The RedHawks didn't cover either game down the stretch after clinching the East division early, but prior to that were 12-2 ATS in MAC games this season and last.
Early action has been on CMU, moving this price from -4-5-5 to -6-6.5.
Conference USA championship
UAB Blazers (9-3, 7-5 ATS) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (9-3, 8-4 ATS)
Line: Florida Atlantic -7; O/U: 48.5
15th game; favorites 9-5, 7-7 ATS, O/U 7-7
Boca Raton, Florida, 1:30 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS Sports Network)
Five of the 10 defending conference champions have returned to their league championship games, and only UAB is an underdog.
This is also this weekend's only matchup between two coaches who have never prepared for a game with the opposing program. These schools have met six times, all since 2008, but only twice (2013-14) since FAU joined Conference USA in 2013. The Owls are 4-2 both SU and ATS in the six meetings.
It's also a matchup of the past two champions. UAB won the league last season in just its second year back from a two-year shuttering of the school's football program, while third-year Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin won the 2017 title in his maiden campaign.
UAB boss Bill Clark is 11-2 ATS as an underdog in Conference USA play, with nine outright upset victories.
AAC championship
Cincinnati Bearcats (10-2, 7-5) vs. Memphis Tigers (11-1, 8-4 ATS)
Line: Memphis -10; O/U: 58.5
Fifth game; favorites 3-1, 3-1 ATS, O/U 2-2
Memphis, Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
This game is a rematch -- as four other league title games are -- but it's all a rematch of last week's game.
Memphis needed a 34-24 victory Friday over Cincinnati (as a 13.5-point favorite) to capture the American Athletic Conference West division. Redshirt freshman Ben Bryant made his first career start at quarterback for the Bearcats in place of banged-up Desmond Ridder, and bettors should be aware of updates to the quarterback situation heading into the rematch. Bryant committed three turnovers but otherwise played very well and completed throws that Ridder can't make.
Memphis has lost the past two AAC title games, both narrow defeats to Central Florida. The Tigers have beaten Cincinnati in four consecutive games, but until last week the most recent matchup was in 2016.
SEC championship
Georgia Bulldogs (11-1, 7-5 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (12-0, 7-5 ATS)
Line: LSU -6; O/U: 56.5
28th game; favorites 22-5, 13-13-1 ATS, O/U 17-10
Atlanta, 4 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS)
There's been a stark recent adjustment to this price. Georgia and LSU each opened as about a two-touchdown favorite over Texas A&M at home the past two weeks. Georgia dropped to a 13-point choice by kickoff and beat the Aggies 19-13, while LSU surged to a 17-5-point choice by kickoff and beat the Aggies 50-7.
Even after those outcomes, oddsmaker power ratings still made the difference between the two barely more than a field goal, with the first books to market opening LSU at -3.5 or -4 on Sunday afternoon. But the public is heavily behind the Tigers in this game, and prices surged to as much as -7 in the first few hours of action.
Georgia came to Baton Rouge a seven-point favorite last season and left with a 36-16 whipping that wasn't even that close. It was the first meeting between the SEC powers since 2013.
Mountain West championship
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (9-4, 7-6) vs. Boise State Broncos (11-1, 6-5-1)
Line: Boise State -16.5; O/U: 63.5
15th game; favorites 11-3; 8-6 ATS, O/U 7-7
Boise, Idaho, 4 p.m. ET Saturday (ESPN)
Boise State has a reputation as the Mountain West overlord, but the Broncos have won just two outright titles in eight years in the league, the same number as Fresno State and San Diego State.
Hawai'i beat San Diego State in a winner-takes-all matchup for the West division two weeks ago and will make its first title game appearance.
Boise beat Hawai'i 59-37 as 13-point chalk in October, the Broncos' seventh consecutive victory and sixth straight cover in the series.
Until then, Boise had started freshman Hank Bachmeier at quarterback, but he was injured in that game and despite returning two weeks later has since been supplanted by first Chase Cord and then Jaylon Henderson. Hawai'i has rotated explosive but turnover-prone incumbent Cole McDonald with redshirt freshman Chevan Cordeiro all season. Bettors need to have a clear grasp on how both teams are feeling about their quarterback situations heading into this matchup.
ACC championship
Virginia Cavaliers (9-3, 6-5-1) vs. Clemson Tigers (12-0, 9-3 ATS)
Line: Clemson -29; O/U: 54.5
15th game; favorites 11-3, 8-6 ATS, O/U 7-7
Charlotte, North Carolina, 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
It's the largest price on a conference championship game this season, and it's a pretty eye-popping number that should probably be closer to the opener of 27. Sure, Clemson has been on a tear of seven straight blowouts since a narrow win at North Carolina, but none of those teams is in Virginia's class. The group included an FCS team, two teams with coaches who have since been fired, two more with coaches firmly on the hot seat and two more operating without key offensive playmakers.
These schools haven't met since 2013. Clemson has outgained every team it has faced by at least 250 yards except Texas A&M and North Carolina, while Virginia has outgained only Liberty and William & Mary by more than 90. Despite the difference in ability to dominate, this is still a monster number for a conference championship. Last season, Clemson's national title team was a 28-point favorite in this game, winning a 42-10 decision over a Pitt team that was much weaker than this season's Virginia squad.
The Cavaliers at their best can cover this number, and the key factor might be whether they fall victim to the "just happy to be there" mentality that plagues many first-timers to the conference championship game scene.
Big Ten championship
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 9-3 ATS) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (10-2, 7-5 ATS)
Line: Ohio State -16; O/U: 53.5
Ninth game; 4-4, 2-5-1 ATS, O/U 6-2
Indianapolis, 8 p.m. ET Saturday (Fox)
Ohio State has been nothing short of dominant, outgaining every opponent by at least 235 yards until the past two games. Those were probably the two toughest matchups of the season for the Buckeyes, and they outgained Penn State and Michigan by a figure just short of 200 yards.
Paul Chryst and the Badgers are getting a second chance at the Buckeyes in two ways. Ohio State thumped Wisconsin 38-7 back in October when the Badgers were fresh off their upset loss to Illinois, and Wisconsin is seeking revenge from a hard-fought, 27-21 Big Ten championship game loss to Ohio State in 2017.
Like LSU, Ohio State will probably enjoy heavy public backing in this game. The number is on the rise, with many shops already at 17.