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The 20 biggest Championship Week betting surprises

Rob Tringali for ESPN

Using SP+ ratings, there might be a little bit of gambling value to be found in this week's batch of 10 college football conference title games. There's about a three-point difference -- in favor of the underdog each time -- between SP+ projections and the early market for Ohio State (-17) vs. Wisconsin, LSU (-6.5) vs. Georgia, and Oklahoma (-9.5) vs. Baylor.

Plus, as has been the case all season, SP+ likes Memphis more than the Books do (the Tigers are -10 in the early market but are 15.4-point projected favorites) and is criminally underselling Clemson (it projects a 21-point win but has been a couple of touchdowns off for most of the Tigers' late-year rampage through the ghastly ACC).

Feel free to use that information however you choose. But today, let's focus primarily on the glorious Championship Week moments that no system -- be it sports books' or some nerds' computers -- could have rightfully seen coming.


Conference championships have been around since the SEC took the leap in 1992. By 1996, the Big 12 and others began to join the party as well. Below are the 20 most unexpected results in the history of FBS conference title games.

For a game to make this list, one of two things needed to happen: Either the final margin was drastically off from the Vegas number or the winner was a particularly big underdog. Most of the games at the top of the list fulfilled both qualifications.

20. 2005 SEC championship: No. 13 Georgia 34, No. 3 LSU (-1.5) 14

Thanks to the presence of Texas and USC, 10-1 LSU wasn't going to the BCS title game no matter what, but the Tigers were still favored. UGA's D.J. Shockley and Sean Bailey connected for two first-quarter scores, and Tim Jennings' early-fourth-quarter pick six turned this one into an unexpected romp.

19. 2014 Pac-12 championship: No. 3 Oregon (-14.5) 51, No. 8 Arizona 13

18. 2013 Pac-12 championship: No. 7 Stanford 38, No. 11 Arizona State (-3.5) 14

With USC going through one of its many existential crises, the Pac-12 South went through an ACC Coastal-style egalitarian phase at the start of the decade -- all six of the division's teams made a conference title game appearance in a seven-year span. But neither of the Arizona schools showed up when it was their turn.

Todd Graham's Sun Devils won 10 games in 2013 but got snuffed out at home by three touchdowns from Stanford's Tyler Gaffney. The next year, Oregon got a revenge opportunity for an early-season loss to Arizona and, shall we say, took full advantage.

17. 2008 Conference USA championship: ECU 27, Tulsa (-12.5) 24

Another appearance for an unfortunate Graham team. Tulsa went 10-2 in 2008, with losses only at Arkansas and Houston, but Skip Holtz's Pirates, which had started the season with wins over ranked Virginia Tech and West Virginia teams before a slump, salvaged their season with two long early touchdowns and a late Ben Hartman field goal.

16. 2001 Big 12 championship: No. 9 Colorado 39, No. 3 Texas (-7.5) 37

15. 2005 Big 12 championship: No. 2 Texas (-26.5) 70, Colorado 3

Compared to other Big 12 Championship shockers (we'll get to those), Colorado's 2001 upset of Texas seemed downright mundane. The Buffs, after all, had just romped over previously unbeaten Nebraska. Texas' Chris Simms threw three picks in 17 passes, and Medford Moorer's 64-yard pick-six gave CU a 19-point lead late in the first half. UT went on a late charge behind backup QB Major Applewhite, but it wasn't enough.

Four years later, Texas got its revenge. The Longhorns were much better than their 2001 selves, and Colorado was the champ of one of the weakest divisions in the history of college football divisions. This one was jarring only because of the winning margin.

14. 2010 SEC championship: No. 2 Auburn (-5) 56, No. 18 South Carolina 17

Gene Chizik's 2010 Tigers, led by all-time juco transfer Cam Newton, deployed years' worth of drama in a single season, winning six regular-season games by a single score. They had beaten Steve Spurrier's Gamecocks by just eight points at home in September.

With a spot in the BCS Championship on the line, however, they played their best game of the season. They scored three touchdowns in the first 13 minutes, and while Carolina cut the lead to 21-14 late in the first half, a Hail Mary touchdown by Darvin Adams both stretched the lead back to two scores and took the Gamecocks' soul. The second half was a romp.

13. 2009 SEC championship: No. 2 Alabama 32, No. 1 Florida (-5) 13

After falling short against Urban Meyer, Tim Tebow and the Gators in 2008, Nick Saban's Tide got their revenge. Greg McElroy outplayed Tim Tebow, Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson combined for 193 rushing yards, and a fourth-quarter Ingram score turned a supposed toss-up game into a laugher and set up Saban's first national title in Tuscaloosa.

12. 1999 SEC championship: No. 7 Alabama 34, No. 5 Florida (-7) 7

After going 11-12 in his first two seasons, Mike DuBose led Bama to a 9-2 campaign behind running back Shaun Alexander and a solid defense. Steve Spurrier's Gators, however, were in line for a national title opportunity until a 30-23 loss to No. 1 Florida State the week before the trip to Atlanta. Florida scored just 1:40 into the game then ran out of gas, and two Bama touchdowns in 18 seconds early in the fourth quarter -- a 77-yard Freddie Milons run and a Reggie Grimes pick-six -- turned this into a sudden blowout.

11. 2011 ACC championship: No. 21 Clemson 38, No. 5 Virginia Tech (-7) 10

Clemson's incremental growth under Dabo Swinney was pretty incredible. He was just 19-15 as the Tigers' head man heading into 2011, but despite a late loss of form (they lost three of four to end the regular season), they won a flawed ACC Atlantic and turned in a demonstrative upset of a Virginia Tech program that had become the league's standard bearer. Tied at half, Clemson scored three touchdowns in the first nine minutes of the third quarter and rolled.

10. 2005 ACC championship: Florida State 27, No. 5 Virginia Tech (-14) 22

In maybe Bobby Bowden's last shining moment as FSU's head coach (he would go 7-6 and finish unranked in each of his final two seasons), his Noles were significant underdogs against one of Frank Beamer's best teams. But as with 2011, a third-quarter surge against the Hokies gave the Noles a big cushion, and two late Marcus Vick touchdowns weren't enough for Tech to close the gap.

9. 2005 MAC championship: Akron 31, NIU (-13) 30

8. 2008 MAC championship: Buffalo 42, No. 12 Ball State (-15.5) 24

7. 2010 MAC championship: Miami (Ohio) 26, No. 24 NIU (-17.5) 21

For a while in the 2000s, the worst possible thing to be was a MAC title game favorite. In 2005, the immortal Luke Getsy found Domenik Hixon for a 36-yard score to complete a two-touchdown Akron comeback in the final seconds. In 2008, with rumors swirling about Ball State head coach Brady Hoke's departure, Buffalo swooped in and ended the Cardinals' undefeated season thanks to five takeaways. And in 2010, we saw a near replay of 2005 -- underdog Miami scored on a 33-yard touchdown pass from Austin Boucher to Armand Robinson in the final seconds to beat the favored NIU.

6. 2011 Conference USA championship: No. 24 Southern Miss 49, No. 7 Houston (-13.5) 28

Southern Miss is at its best as a program when it's a cranky and anti-social underdog. Kevin Sumlin's Houston Cougars were unbeaten and in line for a BCS bowl bid, but Larry Fedora and USM waltzed into the Coogs' home stadium, built a 21-14 halftime lead, and then put the game away with a 21-point third quarter.

5. 2012 Big Ten championship: Wisconsin 70, No. 14 Nebraska (-3) 31

Wisconsin lost three of four to finish the regular season and advanced to the title game only because unbeaten Ohio State, the rightful Leaders Division (or was it Legends?) champ, was ineligible to play in the postseason. But the Badgers took full advantage of the opportunity in Bret Bielema's final game as head coach, going up 14-0 in barely two minutes and rolling. Montee Ball rushed for 202 yards ... and wasn't Wisconsin's leading rusher. Melvin Gordon topped him with 216 in only nine carries.

4. 2014 Big Ten championship: No. 6 Ohio State 59, No. 11 Wisconsin (-4) 0

Two years later, Gary Andersen's last game as Wisconsin's coach went a bit differently. Ohio State lost early to Virginia Tech, and it threw everyone off the Buckeyes' scent. They caught fire behind young QB J.T. Barrett (a starter because incumbent Braxton Miller was out), but he suffered a season-ending injury against Michigan. Third-stringer Cardale Jones' first start was in this game. How could the Buckeyes possibly cope with Gordon and a sturdy Wisconsin team, while using a third-stringer?

Turns out, it was pretty easy. Jones went 12-for-17 with three scores, Ezekiel Elliott scored on an 81-yard run early in the game, and the Buckeyes' defense erased Gordon (26 carries, 76 yards). The rout -- a 59-point win by an underdog -- was so impressive that Ohio State hopped into the No. 4 spot in the CFP rankings. And then they won two more games as underdogs to take home the national title.

3. 2003 Big 12 championship: No. 13 Kansas State 35, No. 1 Oklahoma (-14) 7

2. 1998 Big 12 championship: No. 10 Texas A&M 36, No. 2 Kansas State (-17.5) 33

1. 1996 Big 12 championship: Texas 37, No. 3 Nebraska (-20.5) 27

After its co-champions -- Baylor and TCU -- both got hopped by Ohio State for the final CFP spot in 2014, the Big 12 began to yearn for a restart of the conference title game it had discontinued when its membership fell to 10 teams. The title game has been back for three seasons and hasn't cost the league a title contender yet, but a quick glance at the conference's history should have given decision-makers pause: No league has lost more national title hopefuls than the Big 12.

We've already talked about 2001, and Oklahoma's 2007 win over top-ranked Missouri wasn't quite shocking enough to make this list. (Texas' BCS hopes nearly got Ndamukong Suh'd in 2009, too.) But the 1996, 1998 and 2003 title games all shocked the world and, in the first two cases, redefined the title race.