Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 14's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers.
Plus, our experts evaluate the race for Defensive Player of the Year and pick assistant coaches whom they would choose to run a new franchise.
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What's your top upset pick for Week 14?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Jaguars (+3) over Chargers. If the Jags start Gardner Minshew at quarterback, then I'll roll with Jacksonville as a home 'dog versus a Los Angeles team that has consistently failed to make plays in crucial game moments this season. Minshew gives the Jags more playmaking talent and movement skills behind an offensive line that struggles to keep the pocket clean. Go with the rookie here, Doug Marrone.
Mike Clay, NFL writer: Cardinals (+2.5) over Steelers. The Cardinals were embarrassed by the Rams on Sunday, but hung close with the 49ers (twice) and Buccaneers during their previous three games. The Arizona offense had scored three-plus touchdowns in five consecutive games prior to the Week 13 dud. The visiting Steelers have won five of their past six games, but four of those were at home. They're 2-3 on the road, with the wins by one possession over both the Chargers and Bengals. Pittsburgh's offense continues to struggle, with one touchdown in four consecutive games before putting two on the board on Sunday.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: 49ers (+2.5) over Saints. I know they lost in Baltimore, but I thought the 49ers came out of that game looking pretty good considering no one else had played Baltimore close in a month. They're staying east, working out in Florida in between road games in Baltimore and New Orleans, so they won't have to worry about getting acclimated to a second consecutive early start in an earlier time zone. And as much as any team, San Francisco has been able to dictate the action this season on both sides of the ball. The Saints are one of the best teams in the league and tough at home, but something about their run game doesn't feel all the way right just yet. I was at their home game two weeks ago when Carolina was a field goal away from beating them, and the Niners are better than the Panthers. I say they spring the upset and set up a cool postseason rematch storyline.
Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Broncos (+9) over Texans. The Broncos actually looked inspired during Drew Lock's debut and have won two of the past three games against Houston, a team known for the occasional lapse. Denver still has enough defensive firepower to effectively mix and match coverages against the Texans' weapons, and the AFC South is allergic to runaway winners in December, so a Houston loss fittingly recalibrates the balance of power.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Dolphins (+5.5) over Jets. Miami continues to impress with the steady growth it is making under first-year coach Brian Flores. While still undermanned, the team is competing hard defensively and has become a fun passing offense to watch, which will be enough to steer them past the Jets.
The Defensive Player of The Year race is tight. Who's your pick to win it?
Bowen: Patriots CB Stephon Gilmore. Give me the NFL's top cover corner, who is a vital piece of the Patriots' defense. He's an impact player with the versatility to match wide receivers or bump inside to check route-running tight ends. And Gilmore has the ball production, too, with four interceptions and 13 passes defended.
Clay: Rams DT Aaron Donald. Very good players will always pop up with the occasional great season, but no one has been as consistently dominant as Donald over the past six years. Though his pace is down a bit from 2018, Donald still ranks near the top of the league with 57 pass-rush wins (third-most), 9.5 sacks (ninth) and 19.5 tackles for loss (first). He's still the best defensive player in the league.
Graziano: Saints DE Cameron Jordan. Jordan is the heart and soul of New Orleans' defensive front. He's second in the league in sacks and ahead of T.J. Watt, who was nearly my pick here. I think Jordan is playing at an elite level and isn't always appreciated for being the elite player he is, and he deserves some love in this conversation.
Fowler: Steelers LB T.J. Watt. The most consistent force on one of the league's best defenses deserves serious consideration with 12.5 sacks, including at least a half-sack in nine consecutive games. Watt has forced five fumbles, instinctively alters passing lanes with five passes defended, is slick when dropping into coverage and is always around the ball for a team that needs defensive splash to win.
Yates: Gilmore. It's almost always going to be hard to quantify the value of a top cornerback through just stats, as some of the best don't see many targets thrown their way. Gilmore has been a difference-maker for one of the league's elite units. The Patriots have implicit confidence in Gilmore's ability to match any receiver in man-to-man coverage, which unlocks some of what they can do up front. He has been absolutely tremendous.
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop in Week 14?
Bowen: Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill. You're going to start Hill in the fantasy playoffs. We know that. But this is a pretty tough matchup against the Patriots' defense. In last season's AFC Championship Game, Bill Belichick's unit doubled Hill for the majority of the snaps, holding him to one catch -- on three targets -- for 42 yards. In short, look for Belichick to force Patrick Mahomes to go somewhere else with the ball.
Clay: Colts RB Marlon Mack. He is targeting a Week 14 return from injury, but you might not want to be quick to put him in your lineup. Mack will be facing off with a Tampa Bay defense that has been elite against running backs, allowing only 3.26 yards per carry (second-lowest). The Buccaneers have allowed the fewest rushing yards (723) and only four rushing touchdowns to opposing backs. Mack is barely used as a receiver, which provides him with a lower floor than most backs.
Graziano: Saints QB Drew Brees. Again, thinking the Niners have a good day in New Orleans off a rare loss in which they really weren't THAT bad on defense. Brees doesn't offer the frightening mobility with which Lamar Jackson presented the Niners last weekend, and they should be able to get after the banged-up left side of the New Orleans offensive line and cause some problems for the veteran.
Fowler: 49ers RB Raheem Mostert. The offense is just too diverse to expect a repeat performance of Mostert's 146-yard explosion in Baltimore. No San Francisco tailback has rushed for back-to-back games of 70 or more yards since Mostert did so in Weeks 2 and 3, and against the Saints' third-ranked rushing D (88.6 yards allowed per game), San Francisco needs Mostert and Tevin Coleman to grind out tough yardage.
Yates: Any Buccaneers running back. How are we supposed to trust Ronald Jones right now after inconsistent usage in Week 13 (an errant pass protection early in the game contributed to that)? While Peyton Barber stepped in and found the end zone twice, I'm not confident that he'll be the undisputed workhorse in the backfield Sunday vs. Indianapolis.
You're starting the 33rd NFL team. Which current non-head coach would you try to hire to coach your team?
Bowen: Chiefs special-teams coordinator Dave Toub. Special-teams coordinators aren't considered prime candidates in today's league, but I want a leader up front in the team room. Toub, who is extremely detailed-oriented, brings almost 20 years of NFL coaching experience to the table, and his built-in management skills from the kicking game will translate here. Toub has worked under Andy Reid in Kansas City since 2013, and I believe he is ready to take a head job in the league.
Clay: Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman. After watching what Roman has achieved with Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco, Tyrod Taylor in Buffalo and now Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, I'd be champing at the bit to get Roman in for an interview after this season. The league is progressively moving away from pure pocket passers, and Roman continues to be ahead of the field in terms of maximizing the production of multifaceted quarterbacks. The best part? The likes of Kaepernick, Taylor, Marcus Mariota and Cam Newton will (or could) be available as a quarterback counterpart.
Graziano: Former Panthers coach Ron Rivera. Full disclosure: I originally had Jim Caldwell (64-54 as an NFL coach, including two playoff appearances in five years with the Lions) in this spot, because I want a guy who has done the job before. If I'm starting the 33rd NFL team, there are a lot of variables I can't be sure about. Do I have a rookie QB? A veteran QB? Am I more likely to be able to hire a strong defensive coordinator or a strong offensive coordinator? How far is my roster away from competing? With that many unanswerable questions, I want a guy who knows how to run the building. Rivera has been a steady hand in Carolina during a very successful run, including of course the 15-1 season in which the Panthers reached the Super Bowl. We're going to hear a lot next month about "defensive-minded" and "offensive-minded," but what I want is a head coach, a leader who knows how to handle the locker room and all of the basic and complex responsibilities of the job. It helps that this is a guy who has done a fair bit of winning, too.
Fowler: Former Packers coach Mike McCarthy. His offense looked stale and unimaginative at the end of his Green Bay tenure, but I'll bet on his pedigree and a recharged battery after a full year away from the game. A coach with eight double-digit win seasons in Green Bay now has the chance to redefine himself as a playcaller while setting up a killer coaching staff behind the scenes.
Yates: Vikings assistant coach Gary Kubiak. Understanding that he would likely tell me no, I'd make the hard push. Kubiak has experience as a head coach, guiding the Broncos to a Super Bowl win during his tenure in Denver, and is widely respected as one of the best offensive minds in football. While there are many exciting and capable young coaches out there, Kubiak's track record and understanding of all the responsibilities incumbent upon a head coach makes him my pick.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 14.
Bowen: Bears WR Anthony Miller. He has seen a boost in volume over his past three games, catching 21 of 33 targets for 271 yards. He's a slot target in Matt Nagy's offense, which creates vertical opportunities inside of the numbers. While Miller lacks scoring upside in your lineup, the volume and recent run on production puts him in the WR3 range for deeper leagues.
Clay: Giants WR Darius Slayton. The Eagles have been better against wide receivers overall of late, but Ronald Darby continues to struggle badly at right perimeter corner. That was on full display when DeVante Parker beat him for a pair of long gains in what was a career day for the veteran receiver. Slayton (60% left perimeter receiver) will see Darby most often Monday night and gets a boost in value.
Graziano: Steelers TE Vance McDonald. I know he hasn't been a big part of things in a Pittsburgh offense that's down to its third-string quarterback. But at this point, it's pretty important to find a way to start the tight end who's playing the Cardinals. They're allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position and it's not even close. Tyler Higbee had seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown last weekend. Ross Dwelley had two touchdowns against them the week before. The Cardinals have allowed 13 tight end touchdown catches this season, and there have only been two Cardinals games in which an opposing tight end hasn't scored. I know it's the playoffs, but unless you have Travis Kelce or George Kittle or someone like that, take a look at McDonald.
Fowler: Redskins RB Derrius Guice. He's still splitting time with Adrian Peterson, but his 129-yard, two-touchdown performance against Carolina should put to bed any concerns about his explosion coming off knee issues. The Redskins' offense can stay engaged after back-to-back wins while looking to the future with a healthy workload for Guice, who faces a Packers defense that's too often soft against the run.
Yates: Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Dolphins' passing game is fun to watch with Fitz as the navigator. While he comes with risk given his at-times turnover-prone style, he has at least 20 fantasy points in four of his past seven games and faces off against a Jets pass defense that doesn't inspire a ton of fear in opponents.