After going 12-0 the previous three weeks, Chris "The Bear" Fallica's perfect streak finally came to an end. So what's in store for this week?
Here, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and "The Bear" break down Week 9 of the college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on. We even added a two-team "toilet bowl" teaser of the two worst matchups of the year!
With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 9 picks.
The plays
Stanford Steve (3-3 last week, 20-17-2 overall)
The Bear (1-5 last week, 18-16-1 overall)
Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
The Bear: A thin Texas defense was on the field for 86 plays last week and gave up 7.7 yards per play to Oklahoma the week prior. Now, the Longhorns head to Fort Worth to take on a desperate TCU team coming off consecutive road losses. I'm not sure Max Duggan is going to scare many teams at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, but he and the running game should be able to make enough plays against a defense that misses a ton of tackles and is 113th nationally in yards per play allowed; only four Power 5 teams are worse (Texas Tech, UCLA, Vanderbilt and Colorado). I'll also side with the books, which made TCU a favorite, only to see this number cross zero. If you like TCU, you might even be able to get 2 or 2.5 by Saturday.
It's sometimes dangerous to compare box scores with common opponents, but TCU beat Kansas on its home field 51-14, outgaining the Jayhawks 625-159. Texas needed a last-second field goal to beat KU 50-48 in a game where it allowed 569 yards.
Pick:
Texas State Bobcats at Arkansas State Red Wolves (-12, 58.5)
The Bear: The Red Wolves are still dealing with some injuries, and while backup QB Layne Hatcher has been putting up solid numbers, the defense is a huge problem, as it has allowed 496 or more yards six times this season. Texas State actually ranks 43 spots better than Arkansas State in defensive yards per play, and if the offense can keep taking better care of the ball, the Bobcats should find the end zone enough to hang in the game. Arkansas State allowed 722 yards in a loss to Georgia State, while Texas State beat the Panthers.
Pick: Texas State +12
California Golden Bears at Utah Utes (-21, 36.5)
The Bear: Utah QB Tyler Huntley is expected to play and I'm chalking up last week's offensive struggles to a combination of his injury and bad weather. The Cal defense is legit, so how will the Bears score points regardless of whether Devon Modster or Spencer Brasch is under center? This has the feel of a 27-3 type game where Utah just pulls away against a Cal defense that will be on the field for a long period of time.
Pick: Utah -21
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-2.5, 53.5)
The Bear: OK, I'm doing it: I'm meeting up with my old friend Indiana to see if we can work things out. QB Michael Penix has been practicing this week and even if he doesn't go, I don't think there is a huge drop off to Peyton Ramsey. Adrian Martinez's status is still up in the air for the Huskers, who have other injury and roster issues as well. Indiana has a legitimate shot at eight wins if the Hoosiers can pull the small upset and I think Marcelino Ball and the IU defense will continue the struggles for the Huskers offense.
Pick: Indiana +2.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-1, 51)
Stanford Steve: The Wolverines haven't played a team in the top 40 in passing yards this season. Even though I was impressed with their improvement across the board last week at Penn State, I feel like Notre Dame's skill-position talent is better than Michigan's defensive skill talent. QB Ian Book and the offense have faced above-average secondaries in Virginia and Georgia. In that road loss to the Dawgs, Book completed 64% of his passes for 275 yards. Brian Kelly has never won in Ann Arbor, but I don't think we'll be able to say that after this game. Take the Irish.
Pick: Notre Dame +1; Notre Dame 27, Michigan 21
Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
Stanford Steve: This one feels like the same game as when Tulane went to West Point a couple weeks ago. We were on the wrong side that day when we went against the Green Wave; this time we'll take them.
Pick: Tulane +3.5; Tulane 24, Navy 23
Stanford Steve's short favorite to take on the money line
South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 48) at Tennessee Volunteers
I just think the Vols will really have trouble blocking the Gamecocks, and with Brian Maurer out, South Carolina has an advantage at quarterback.
Pick: South Carolina ML -175; South Carolina 24, Tennessee 18
Stanford Steve's pick for the SEC game of the week
Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-11.5, 58.5)
I think we get an old-school SEC game, as Auburn can win only if it runs for a lot of yards and keeps Joe Burrow and the LSU offense off the field.
Pick: Under 58.5; LSU 27, Auburn 16
Stanford Steve's picks to go over the total
Maryland Terrapins at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-16.5, 56.5)
I don't like the matchup or the situation for the Terps as they head north. I think the Gophers' offense is legit and Maryland will score enough.
Pick: Over 56.5; Minnesota 41, Maryland 24
Utah State Aggies at Air Force Falcons (-3.5, 58)
This is a contrast of styles. Utah State plays as fast as anyone in the country, while you know the Falcons play that option. The Aggies average 33 points and over 450 yards per game on offense, while Air Force averages 37 points per game, getting around 300 yards on the ground. The over has cashed in four of the past six games these two have played against each other.
Pick: Over 58; Air Force 33, Utah State 30
Two-game Toilet Bowl teaser
Two-team, six-point teaser.
UConn Huskies (-10, 62.5) at UMass Minutemen
Liberty Flames (-7.5, 47.5) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Stanford Steve: Worst two games on the slate. Figured I would offer my thoughts for some laughs.
Pick: UConn -4, Liberty -1.5
The Bear: As advertised on the podcast. Rutgers' FPI is 121. UMass comes in at 130 and UConn is 127.
Pick: Liberty -1.5, UMass +16
Stay-away games
The Bear
Tulane Green Wave at Navy Midshipmen (-3.5, 53)
The Green Wave could be down running backs Darius Bradwell, who was a surprise scratch at Memphis, and Corey Dauphine, who injured his wrist in the game.
Penn State Nittany Lions (-6.5, 44) at Michigan State Spartans
The Spartans have won each of the past two meetings as a double-digit underdog, and the spot couldn't be worse for the Nittany Lions off the victory over Michigan, coupled with MSU entering off an idle week after being embarrassed by Wisconsin. But Michigan State's offense is a unit I want no part of backing right now.
San Diego State Aztecs (-13, 45) at UNLV Rebels
Revenge is on the minds of the Aztecs after last season's loss to the Rebels, but San Diego State isn't the most prolific offense out there, and UNLV -- like SDSU -- has shown it's capable of beating a Power 5 team. Not sure I'd be looking to lay two touchdowns with an offense that might not hit 30 points.
Stanford Steve
Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5, 37.5) at Northwestern Wildcats
Yuck.
Indiana Hoosiers (-1, 52.5) at Nebraska Cornhuskers
No idea what to expect from the quarterback position -- on either side.
Arizona Wildcats (-1, 53.5) at Stanford Cardinal
I'll be in attendance for the 1999 Pac-10 Rose Bowl team reunion. Too much emotion. Go Card!
The Bear's money-line parlay of the week
Seven-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 wins $34.82.
Clemson -12000
Western Michigan -3500
Utah -2500
Fresno State -600
Appalachian State -5000
Alabama -10000
Northern Illinois -2500
The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML
Eastern Michigan +150
Indiana +108
East Carolina +110
Louisville +145
Texas State +375
Stanford Steve's line that makes no sense
Texas Longhorns (-1, 59.5) at TCU Horned Frogs
In nontraditional rivalries, when you rank how much a head coach hates another annual opponent, I would put Gary Patterson's hatred for the burnt orange atop the list.
Pick: TCU +1; TCU 31, Texas 30
Bear Bytes
Weekend headliner!
Connecticut at Massachusetts is the first game pitting two teams with matching 1-6 records since 2017, when Texas State beat Coastal Carolina as a 10-point dog. In fact, each of the past five games where both teams brought a 1-6 mark into the game saw the underdog win outright. That run dates back to 2004.
Temple usually a live home 'dog
In its past nine games as a home underdog, Temple is 8-1 ATS with six outright wins. That includes wins this season both times the Owls were home 'dogs (vs. Maryland and Memphis.)
Stanford in an unusual position
This is the first time since the Arizona game in 2008 that Stanford is a home underdog in conference play against someone other than Oregon, USC or Washington. That day, Jim Harbaugh's Cardinal beat Arizona 24-23 as a 6.5-point 'dog.
Kansas is respected
This would be the first time since the Iowa State game in 2014 that Kansas is less than a 4-point underdog. KU won 34-14 that day as a 3.5-point 'dog. The Jayhawks currently are 4-point underdogs vs. Texas Tech.
Take the points in Columbus?
Six of the past seven meetings between Wisconsin and Ohio State have resulted in either a Wisconsin win (2010) or an Ohio State win by seven points or less. The Buckeyes' 59-0 win in the 2014 Big Ten Championship game is the only OSU victory by more than a touchdown in this stretch. Note Wisconsin was favored in three of the seven games.
... or maybe not
Since 1990, there have been seven ranked favorites who lost outright as at least a 24-point favorite and then were an underdog the following week. Only one of the seven -- Virginia Tech last season -- bounced back from that loss to win. The seven went a collective 2-4-1 ATS.
Horned Frogs > Horns?
This is the first time since 2012 that TCU will face a ranked Texas team. TCU has won and covered four of the past five meetings, losing last season as a 3-point favorite.
Can't beat the rivals
Michigan is 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS under Jim Harbaugh against Ohio State, Michigan State and Notre Dame.
Spartans' underdog role
Michigan State is 4-5 ATS in its past nine games as an underdog. Prior to that, MSU was 17-4 in its previous 21 games as a 'dog. However, each of the past two seasons, the Spartans have beaten Penn State outright as a double-digit underdog.
Coach O a lock vs. top 10
In 19 games against top-10 opponents, Ed Orgeron is 15-3-1 ATS. Coach O is 13-1-1 ATS against top-10 teams not named Alabama and has won each of the past eight outright in that spot.
Eastern Michigan back in beloved spot
In its past 26 games as an underdog, EMU is 21-5 ATS with 11 outright wins.
Ducks have been dominated
Washington State has covered nine straight vs. Oregon and won each of the past four outright.