The betting market and our Football Power Index (FPI) often agree -- but not always. Each week, we'll highlight some of the instances in which our model significantly disagrees with the spread. We're looking at not only which side FPI predicts is right but also why.
2019 ATS record: 15-23 (2-3 last week)
2019 closing line value: 22-11-5
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday.
Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers (-11.5)
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
FPI prediction: LSU by 5.8
These teams are closer than they may appear. Auburn has played the sixth-hardest schedule from an average top-25 team perspective, while LSU's slate ranks 47th by the same measure. So while LSU appears superior from a record (7-0 vs. 6-1) and points margin perspective (+211 vs. +134), the actual difference is much smaller. In terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency LSU ranks fifth this season, while Auburn is eighth. In FPI's mind, this is a more challenging opponent for LSU than the betting market would suggest.
FPI pick: Auburn +11.5
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Michigan Wolverines (-1)
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday
FPI prediction: Notre Dame by 4.2
While FPI actually credited Michigan with a slight upgrade after its 28-21 loss to Penn State last week -- which shows you what it thinks of the Wolverines -- the team's 35-14 blowout loss at Camp Randall earlier this season looked even worse than it did before. Wisconsin was upset by Illinois, which resulted in a downgrade in the Badgers' FPI rating and, in turn, a ripple-effect downgrade for Michigan.
In terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency this season (which does not include a preseason prior), Notre Dame has played like the 12th-best team this season; Michigan ranks just 33rd. That's a big enough gap to overcome home-field advantage at the Big House, in FPI's mind.
FPI pick: Notre Dame +1
Oklahoma Sooners (-23.5) at Kansas State Wildcats
Noon ET, Saturday
FPI prediction: Oklahoma by 16.8
Kansas State has the tools to keep this game tighter than the spread would suggest, FPI believes. Quarterback Skylar Thompson is having a strong season, ranking 29th in Total QBR. And on the other side of the ball, the pass defense ranks ninth in expected points added per play. While Oklahoma should be able to run at will over the Wildcats, a stout coverage unit should at least slow down an explosive Sooners offense.
FPI pick: Kansas State +23.5
UConn Huskies (-10) at UMass Minutemen
3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
FPI prediction: UConn by 4.6
This sizzling must-watch features FPI's No. 127 and No. 130-ranked teams. Fortunately, FPI doesn't discriminate in how much it pays attention to teams. It's designed to minimize the error on the point differential for all games, not just the best ones.
The Minutemen haven't had success on offense, no matter whom they throw out at QB -- and their defense is worse. UMass is only about eight points per game worse than UConn, so with the Huskies on the road, FPI thinks it's worth siding with its last-ranked team in FBS football, plus the points.
FPI pick: UMass +10