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Week 9 betting lookahead: Purdue better than its record

Purdue receiver David Bell has stepped in Rondale Moore's absence. Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire

College football lookahead is the essential grab bag of numbers, trends, reads and concepts each Monday throughout the season.

In Week 9, we identify a Big Ten team to buy down the stretch and a surging favorite in Conference USA. We'll also look at a pair of matchups between coaches with some history in which the underdog has dominated against the spread, and we'll ponder if this is a bad as it can get for poor Rutgers.

All lines and totals from Circa Sportsbook as of Sunday.


Portfolio checkup

Which teams we're buying or selling and why.

Buy: Purdue Boilermakers

Purdue has been hit hard by injuries, but the defense is getting healthier and stud wideout Rondale Moore will return to action soon. In the meantime, David Bell has stepped up at wide receiver and become a worthy go-to playmaker, while even drawing comparisons to Jerry Rice(!) from his head coach. Injured quarterback Elijah Sindelar is not close to returning, and Jack Plummer has been up and down in his place; but that position is benefiting from the continued development of third-stringer-turned-backup Aidan O'Connell. The sophomore has made strides since Sindelar's injury allowed him more practice reps, and O'Connell is becoming a far more prepared option if Plummer struggles than he was when Sindelar first went down.

Aside from the injuries, Purdue's issues have been at the line of scrimmage. The run game has not been a threat, and pass protection has been an issue, with 18 sacks allowed through the first seven games. The past four games have been against three teams in the top 50 in sacks, plus Iowa, which doesn't blitz enough to generate high sack totals but gets good pressure with D-line personnel befitting a team with more sacks. The next five, save Wisconsin, are against teams outside the top 50 in sacks, and Purdue quarterbacks should be under less duress down the stretch than they have been during the first two months.

Plan of action: Don't sell Jeff Brohm and this coaching staff short, and be willing to give this 2-5 team credit for digging in down the stretch with its back against the wall. In both of the past two seasons, Purdue and Indiana each came into the Old Oaken Bucket game at 5-6 and needing a win to make the postseason -- and the Boilermakers won both. Moore is an All-American in the top 10 nationally in yards per game. His return will transform this offense, and it's coming soon, maybe even this week. Purdue has dropped four of five, but the next five games are more favorable than the past five.

Buy: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Tyson Helton's tenure didn't start off so well, with a home loss to FCS Central Arkansas in his first-ever game as head coach. Since then, he is 5-1 both against the spread (ATS) and straight up (SU), with the lone blemish a 17-point setback to Louisville as a 10.5-point underdog.

Helton is an offensive coach who has shown an impressive ability to make in-game adjustments, but it is the defense that has carried this team to the top of Conference USA East. The Hilltoppers haven't allowed a second-half touchdown in league play since Week 2 and have surrendered just a field goal in the combined second halves of their past three Conference USA games. Arkansas transfer Ty Storey has been the answer at quarterback, and the team ranks among the least penalized in the nation. Imagine what this bunch could do if it turns around its negative turnover margin.

Plan of action: Western Kentucky covered five games, with each of those ATS wins going under the total. The one thing this team isn't equipped to do is lay large weight, and with games coming up against East division challengers Marshall and Florida Atlantic and perceived West contender Southern Miss, along with a trip to Storey's former team, you can count on Western showing as an underdog or moderate favorite down the stretch. This team believes in itself, and we're going to keep buying until the oddsmakers make a significant adjustment.


Openers

First impressions from the schedule and opening lines.

Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers (-35, 61.5)

7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ACC Network)

Dabo Swinney has beaten Steve Addazio's Eagles in all six meetings between the two coaches but is just 2-4 ATS. Clemson has been favored every time, but this is the largest price since 2013, when Addazio took over in Chestnut Hill. Swinney has just two covers despite an emphasis on this game. Swinney, who like most coaches preaches respect for all opponents, has consistently heaped extra love on BC, emphasizing the physical nature of the Eagles. Laying five touchdowns in conference games will get you beat more often than not, but our observation has been that Swinney goes out of his way to make sure that his team never overlooks this particular opponent.

Texas Longhorns at TCU Horned Frogs (-1, 61)

3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (Fox)

Gary Patterson is a fan base-pleasing 5-2 SU and ATS versus Texas since his Horned Frogs joined the Big 12. And he hasn't had to play the underdog card to get his team up for this series, as TCU was favored in five of the seven matchups.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-9.5, 38) at Northwestern Wildcats

Noon ET, Saturday (ESPN2)

Pat Fitzgerald is 9-5 both SU and ATS versus Iowa's Kirk Ferentz. Northwestern has only been favored in three of those meetings, all by four or fewer points, and the straight-up winner has covered all 14 games.

South Carolina Gamecocks (-4.5, 49) at Tennessee Volunteers

4 p.m. ET, Saturday (SEC Network)

Will Muschamp is 7-0 versus the Vols as head coach at Florida and South Carolina but just 4-3 ATS. Apart from laying two points at Vanderbilt last season, this is Muschamp's only turn as an SEC road favorite in his four years in Columbia. He was 4-2 ATS as SEC road chalk at Florida, with all four covers coming against Kentucky or Vandy.

Liberty Flames (-7, 49) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Noon ET, Saturday (Big Ten Network)

This has to be the low point for the Scarlet Knights, right? A program in its first year as a full FBS member was installed as a four-point road favorite over a Big Ten team, and bettors immediately decided it wasn't enough, driving the price to Liberty -7.


Around the slate

  • Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech both covered for the first time this season, and they did it in style with outright upsets of 21-point favorite Missouri and 18-point chalk Miami, respectively. That leaves Akron -- which came oh so close in Saturday's 21-0 loss to Buffalo as 18.5-point dogs -- as the nation's lone team without a cover this year.

  • Appalachian State, Auburn, Louisiana, SMU and Navy have all covered every game but one.

  • With Wisconsin and Boise State losing on the road this week, 10 unbeaten teams remain. Only Akron, Rice and New Mexico State are winless.

  • The nation's best "under" teams have been California, East Carolina, Utah, Iowa, Liberty, San Diego State and South Alabama, all of which have seen just one game go over the total.

  • Two of those meet this week, as the California-Utah matchup offers the lowest total on the Week 9 board at 38.5. The highest totals are the 70.5 hung on the Hawaii-New Mexico matchup and the 68.5 on Troy-Georgia State, which is somewhat surprising since that foursome has combined for just two totals in the 70s this season and has a combined record to the over of just one game above .500.

  • SMU is the nation's "over" king, with a perfect 7-0 record to the over this year. The Mustangs average more than 200 yards per game rushing to go along with top-12 national rankings in passing offense, scoring offense and total offense. The Ponies (-13.5, 66.5) are at Houston on Thursday night in a game that would surely bear the highest total of the week, if not the season, were D'Eriq King still in the Cougars' lineup.