One of the primary keys to deriving gambling value from college football statistics is being able to determine what is real and what is not. This is the ultimate small-sample sport, and waiting for statistical significance in looking for trends doesn't really get you anywhere.
It might be worth our while, then, to look at the teams that have either drastically overachieved or underachieved in recent weeks and attempt to figure out what's real, what isn't, and why.
Recent underachievers
Nevada Wolf Pack (4-3 overall, 1-2 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -18.4 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -19.0 PPG
A month ago, Nevada was 3-1 overall, but the Wolf Pack were only 102nd in SP+, suggesting some holes. Since then, they've been humiliated by Hawaii (54-3 at home), narrowly survived San Jose State (41-38 at home), and lost by 26 at Utah State.
Aside from the Hawaii game, though, this hasn't really been a trend of underachievement. The defense actually performed well against Utah State and is defending the run well overall. The biggest issue is simply that the quarterback position is a mess. Three different players have thrown at least 36 passes, and the only one who has done so particularly well (Cristian Solano) is out with a hand injury.
Nevada has alternated between iffy and horrific offensively, and that probably isn't going to change. But this underachievement isn't a trend so much as one nightmarish performance dragging the averages down.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-6 overall, 0-4 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -19.0 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -16.4 PPG
Sometimes neither SP+ nor Vegas can catch up to just how bad a given team is. Since disposing of UMass in Week 1 (and overachieving by 10 points against the spread), Rutgers' performance against the number has been a nightmare: minus-10.5 points, minus-7, minus-24.5, minus-27.5, minus-7, minus-6.5. The lower Vegas sets the bar, the worse Rutgers plays.
The defense isn't particularly good, but at 74th in defensive SP+, it's not a complete horror show either. The horror comes on the other side of the ball -- Rutgers has averaged five points per game against six power-conference opponents and has been shut out three times.
This week will be a test of whether Rutgers will continue to fall short of the line. Against a Liberty team that doesn't really play defense (Maine just scored 44 points on the Flames), SP+ suggests the Scarlet Knights should be approximately three-point underdogs, but the early lines have gravitated more toward LU -7. If they lose by double digits in this one, just go ahead and make betting against Rutgers a weekly tradition.
Colorado Buffaloes (3-4 overall, 0-3 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -15.8 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -16.3 PPG
There's a pretty clear reason for Colorado's recent run of bad form, and it might not be something that rectifies itself. Of last year's top 12 tacklers in the secondary, five departed in the offseason, three are injured, and one has yet to play this season due to personal issues. Predictably, the pass defense is an utter disaster and getting worse. The Buffs are 127th in passing success rate allowed and 119th in passer rating.
The offense could rebound, though. The Buffs were averaging 35 points per game before scoring a combined 13 the past two weeks at Oregon and Washington State. You often see one unit falling apart when it becomes clear it won't be getting help from the other, but none of the next three opponents rank better than 44th in defensive SP+, and there's too much talent in this receiving corps to continue on this hopeless path.
North Texas Mean Green (3-4 overall, 1-2 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: -19.9 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: -16.0 PPG
I had pretty high expectations for Seth Littrell's Mean Green this year, and they have spent all season oscillating between promising and hopeless. They nearly beat Cal in Week 3, then lost to a D'Eriq King-less Houston by 21 points in Week 5. They then got pummeled by Southern Miss in Hattiesburg before getting off the schneid with a 33-30 win over Middle Tennessee.
The Houston debacle (28-point underachievement vs. the number) is driving most of this poor average. Still, the Mean Green haven't covered since Week 4. This week's trip to Charlotte will be telling. Charlotte has lost four straight, all by double-digits, and the early lines have been around UNT -3 or -4. SP+ says UNT by six. If the Mean Green handle their business, maybe that's a sign of good things to come.
Recent overachievers
Ball State Cardinals (4-3 overall, 3-0 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: +15.3 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: +19.0 PPG
BSU was already trending up before Toledo came to town. The Cardinals were competitive in losses to Florida Atlantic and NC State, and they were coming off of tight road wins over Northern Illinois and Eastern Michigan. They've covered in five of six games against FBS teams.
Their main calling card: They're one of the few teams in the MAC with a respectable defense. They're 79th in defensive SP+, having allowed just 19 points per game in conference play. Granted, those stats may have been padded slightly because of Toledo's QB injury, but this is a happy trend. That makes this week's visit from Ohio intriguing -- Ohio has a dreadful defense but ranks 46th in offensive SP+. Both SP+ and the early lines have made BSU a slight favorite, and if the Cardinals indeed win, they'll play Western Michigan in Week 11 for the title of MAC West favorite.
Utah Utes (6-1 overall, 3-0 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: +20.9 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: +18.5 PPG
Since the upset loss to USC, Utah has played angry. The Utes beat Washington State by 25 and Oregon State by 45, and they toyed with Arizona State's young quarterback, Jayden Daniels, limiting him to 0.4 yards per pass attempt (including sacks) in a 21-3 win that might have been worse had Utah quarterback Tyler Huntley not injured his calf at the end of the third quarter.
Huntley is listed as questionable for this week's game against Cal. The drop-off from Huntley to backups Drew Lisk and Jason Shelley could be pretty severe, and for all of its offensive issues, Cal still plays strong defense (21st in defensive SP+). So maybe this positive trend doesn't survive a QB knock. But this is the most complete Utah team Kyle Whittingham has had (the Utes are 19th in offensive SP+ and 13th on defense), and the Utes should be able to survive Cal even with limitations. Cover, though? We'll see.
Georgia State Panthers (5-2 overall, 3-0 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: +21.4 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: +16.8 PPG
It's been a roller coaster of a season for Georgia State. The Panthers began the year with the now-famous win at Tennessee but then barely eked by Furman, got their doors blown off by Western Michigan, and lost a strange OT game at Texas State. Having fallen to 120th in SP+, however, they found their legs after a bye week. They beat Arkansas State by two touchdowns and won by 10 at Coastal Carolina, and this past week they both hosted and handled Army, 28-21. Frankly, Army was lucky to stay that close.
The key to this recent surge: defense. Ends Hardrick Willis and T.J. Arnold each missed time, as did cornerback Quavian White, and Willis and White have both proven disruptive since their returns. This isn't an amazing unit, but they've gone from allowing 41.5 points per game in September to 26.7 in October.
Vegas seems to be all aboard the Georgia State bandwagon now. Early lines for this week's game against Troy are pick 'ems, though SP+ lists Troy as a three-point favorite. If the Panthers overachieve in this one, they could have a shot at a 9-3 record or so.
Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0 overall, 3-0 last four weeks)
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. SP+ projection: +17.2 PPG
Last 4 weeks' performance vs. midweek spread: +16.0 PPG
Ohio State is the anti-Rutgers. Neither Vegas nor SP+ is catching up to how good the Buckeyes are. They have covered in six straight games -- and by at least 21 points in five. I wrote about Ohio State's semi-surprising brilliance on Monday, and when output matches recruiting rankings, it's basically the definition of sustainable. Still, you figure Vegas and SP+ catch up at some point.
This week offers an interesting test. Granted, we're all a bit lower on Wisconsin than we were before their debacle of a loss at Illinois, but the Badgers have the most talented defense and the first strong, mostly healthy, offense the Buckeyes have seen this year. Early lines have seen Ohio State giving about two touchdowns, and if the Buckeyes overachieve this one by 21 or so points, then maybe we just go ahead and give OSU the national title rings now.
(By the way, Rutgers and Ohio State play in Piscataway on Nov. 16. Yikes.)