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Washington Commanders schedule 2023: Takeaways, predictions

The Commanders will need to get out of the gates fast in 2023 as they enter the season with the league's eighth-toughest schedule. Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

ASHBURN, Va. -- The Washington Commanders’ 2023 schedule was released along with the rest of the NFL slate Thursday.

The Commanders will play on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas for the fifth time in eight seasons. Their 2016 game on Thanksgiving was FOX’s most watched game ever to that point. But for the second consecutive season, Washington’s bye isn’t until December (Dec. 10).

Washington will open the season at home vs. Arizona with a new owner -- Dan Snyder is selling the franchise -- and a new quarterback. Regardless if it’s Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett, it’ll be the sixth year in a row the franchise has started a new quarterback, though the buzz could center around the likely new ownership group. It’ll also be the debut of new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. With Arizona’s Kyler Murray recovering from a torn ACL, it’s possible former Washington quarterback Colt McCoy will start against his former team.

Here's what's in store for the Commanders in 2023:

Schedule

Sept. 10: vs. Arizona

Sept. 17: at Denver

Sept. 24: vs. Buffalo

Oct. 1: at Philadelphia

Oct. 5: vs. Chicago (TNF)

Oct. 15: at Atlanta

Oct. 22: at New York Giants

Oct. 29: vs. Philadelphia

Nov. 5: at New England

Nov. 12: at Seattle

Nov. 19: vs. New York Giants

Nov. 23: at Dallas (Thanksgiving)

Dec. 3: vs. Miami

Dec. 10: BYE

Dec. 17: at Los Angeles Rams

Dec. 24: at New York Jets

Dec. 31: vs. San Francisco

TBD: vs. Dallas

Strength of schedule: .536 (8th toughest)

Over/Under: 7.5

Biggest takeaway

Washington must absolutely get off to a strong start because the middle of the schedule looks difficult. With 10 games vs. teams that made the postseason a year ago, there were always going to be tough stretches. But in a seven-game period that begins Oct. 22 at New York, the Commanders play six out of seven games vs. 2022 playoff teams. The seventh will be at New England. In that same sequence, four of those games will be vs. NFC East teams. Washington could put itself in a good situation – or a really bad one. Finishing with games against Aaron Rodgers and the Jets, the 49ers and then Dallas isn't ideal.

Revenge game

There are two: Both games vs. the New York Giants – on Oct. 22 and Nov. 19. Both teams’ playoff fates were decided by their two matchups last season when they tied in New York and the Giants won with a late goal-line stand in Washington. The Commanders felt they were robbed by the officials in both games because of crucial calls – or non-calls. But they also didn’t play well enough offensively, with only a combined 32 points despite 798 total yards. The Commanders split with Dallas and Philadelphia, but would likely have made the playoffs by beating New York at home in early December.

Bold prediction

Slow starts have been common in Ron Rivera’s first three seasons. Washington started 1-5 in 2020; 2-6 a year later and 1-4 last season. The Commanders then have rallied each year with strong stretches, but the last two years the holes were too deep. So, they will start at least 3-3 and put themselves in position for a stronger season. It helps that four of their first six games are against teams that went a combined 19-49 last year -- and their first two opponents will have new coaches.