Insider recently rolled out the 2016 College Football Future Power Rankings, but we did not want to leave out the promising programs on the Group of 5 level, none of which cracked this year's top 25.
To project which of these programs are best suited to compete for conference championships and high-level bowl games over the next three years, we evaluated them using similar criteria: coaching, current talent, recruiting and program foundation. However, since many of these teams are in the same conference, and the playoff is a steep climb, we took title path out of consideration.
Here are the Group of 5 programs best suited for the upcoming three-year window.
1. Houston
The Cougars are not in the No. 1 spot just because of a 13-1 season in 2015 that ended with a Peach Bowl win against Florida State. (Though it doesn't hurt.)
Recruiting is where UH stands out in a three-year projection, considering its location in the heart of talent-rich Texas. Tom Herman and his staff were able to leverage that for the country's No. 30-rated class in 2016, an incredibly high finishing position for a Group of 5 program.
The biggest, and really only, drawbacks for the program are the high probability that Herman will soon move on to a higher-profile job, as well as a lack of quality facilities beyond two-year-old TDECU Stadium. The school's administration has vowed to improve the football offices and build an indoor facility, in large part to keep Herman from taking a bigger job. If that happens, UH could start to look more and more attractive to the Big 12 if it's serious about expansion.
With quarterback Greg Ward returning and big nonconference games against Oklahoma and Louisville, the Cougars are best positioned to become the College Football Playoff's first Group of 5 participant.
2. Boise State
Other than programs such as Utah and TCU that have moved up from the mid-major level, Boise State is the standard for Group of 5 performance. BSU has finished in the final AP top 10 four times in the past decade, and it has won the Fiesta Bowl three times (2006, 2009, 2014).
Bryan Harsin (21-6 in two seasons) has proven the Broncos can remain relevant even after Chris Petersen's move to a Power 5 job. Based on what agents have told Insider, Harsin could bolt for a bigger job within the three-year window. Even if he did, Boise would be a highly coveted job based on the recent history and financial commitment to football.
With a relatively weak nonconference schedule, at least relative to what we're used to seeing from BSU, Harsin's team -- which returns the bulk of the offense -- should rack up wins in 2016. The resume will not turn the playoff committee's head, however.
This might seem high, but that's just because coach Rocky Long is perfectly content having a program that flies under the radar.
Long, 43-23 since taking over in 2011, has taken the Aztecs to a bowl game in each of his five seasons. They were 11-3 last year, dismantling Cincinnati in the Hawaii Bowl. At age 66, he probably isn't jumping ship for another job. There's some stability and sustainability in place.
NFL scouts will tell you that the 2016 team returns about a half-dozen legitimate prospects, most of them on defense. That isn't surprising considering SDSU held opponents to 4.66 yards per play in 2015 (No. 9 in the FBS). Running back Donnel Pumphrey is also one of college football's unsung stars.
If you're looking for a stealthy New Year's Six bowl team from the Group of 5, San Diego State is it.
4. Cincinnati
Cincinnati presents itself as perhaps the most attractive Group of 5 option for the Big 12. It's in a reasonably large TV market, and it would provide a bridge geographically to the league’' easternmost school, West Virginia.
With Mark Dantonio, Brian Kelly and Butch Jones as coaches to pass through in the past decade or so, there's some recent history to bolster the foundation category. It's rare that a Group of 5 has been able to lure a sitting Power 5 coach, and UC did that with its hire of Tommy Tuberville.
Tuberville (25-14 in three seasons) seems comfortable and stable in the role.
Ohio and nearby Pennsylvania are historically proven recruiting areas, and the Bearcats are fairly visible in those hotbeds.
5. UCF
Scott Frost was an intriguing, out-of-the-box choice, given his background in other parts of the country. He'll bring an exciting offense, one that will be attractive to recruits in Florida and the Southeast.
Outside Houston, as mentioned earlier, UCF is the Group of 5 program best situated to leverage in-state talent.
The construction of Bright House Networks Stadium, which is not yet a decade old, was a huge show of support from the school's administration. Moving away from George O'Leary will help the program get younger and more visible, coaches and agents believe. It could also become attractive to Power 5 leagues such as the Big 12.
The winless season in 2015 didn't do much to inspire confidence in a three-year projection, but UCF had won 21 games in the previous two seasons -- including the Fiesta Bowl in 2013. Frost can get things righted, likely in a hurry.
Five more
6. BYU: Kilani Sitake is in his first head-coaching job, so that comes with some doubt, especially at a place and program so nuanced. But there’s plenty of tradition. Can it become marketable to the Big 12?
7. South Florida This program isn't nearly what it was in the Big East under Jim Leavitt, but Willie Taggart found his footing last year. The recruiting turf, like UCF, is strong.
8. Marshall: Doc Holliday has won 10-plus games three consecutive years, and Marshall has become the lead program in the diluted Conference USA.
9. Colorado State: A new $200-plus-million stadium shows commitment. It's still early in Mike Bobo's tenure to know how it's going to go, one way or the other.
10. Memphis: Losing Justin Fuente to Virginia Tech hurts, though Mike Norvell has done well to help sustain recruiting momentum. "FredEx" money from the FedEx owner Fred Smith is a nice ace in the hole.