Insider continues its weeklong look at coaching stability with the Big 12.
Given the events at Baylor, we excluded Art Briles from consideration. Given his achievements in Waco over the past several years, his standing is as secure as any coach in the country. But it remains unknown what action the board of regents will take as it reviews the results of an investigation into the university's response to sexual violence allegations.
Elsewhere in the league, some in the coaching community wonder how many years Kansas State’s Bill Snyder has remaining in his remarkable career at the school. And a playoff run has further entrenched Oklahoma’s Bob Stoops, though the most stability to be found in the league may come in the form of a first-year coach.
These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job.
Here is the breakdown of each Big 12 coaching situation.
9. Bill Snyder, Kansas State
25th overall season, 193-101-1 record)
We hope Snyder has another decade, or century, left in coaching. But with each passing year, it seems that Snyder’s epic, improbable run at K-State is nearing a close. (Best of luck to AD John Currie finding his replacement.)
Snyder has even indicated that he’d like to see his son, Sean, take over when he steps aside. The succession plan remains unclear, but multiple coaches and agents believe there’s a good chance that this will be the 76-year-old's final season.
8. Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia
(Sixth season, 36-28 record)
Holgorsen has two remaining years on his contract after extension talks broke down a few months ago. That creates an air of friction in Morgantown, a feeling underscored by agents who have told Insider how icy Holgorsen’s relationship was with second-year AD Shane Lyons when they worked together at Texas Tech in the early 2000s.
During a spring campus visit, Holgorsen defended his record.
“I think this program is as healthy as it’s ever been,” Holgorsen told Insider. “We’ve been improving consistently since Geno [Smith], Tavon [Austin] and those guys left [in 2012]. We feel like we’ll win more games next year than this past year.”
In 2015, the Mountaineers won eight games -- the most since entering the Big 12. One agent said it could take more than eight wins for Holgorsen to return in 2017.
7. Charlie Strong, Texas
(Third season, 11-14 record)
Point blank: If Texas’ offense isn’t improved in 2016, Strong will not be Texas’ coach in 2017.
The Longhorns, who finished 5-7 a year ago, were 83rd in the nation in scoring. That led to a coordinator change, with Sterlin Gilbert plucked from Tulsa. But Gilbert is five years removed from coaching at the high school level and he’s never been a primary play-caller in college. Maybe he’s got the chops, but opposing coaches see it as a healthy wager for Strong and his staff.
The Horns are also likely going to bank on a freshman quarterback, Shane Buechele, to run that new-look offense. That’s an alarming scenario to enter a make-or-break season.
6. Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
(Fourth season, 19-19 record)
Hot-seat buzz started to circulate following the Red Raiders’ 4-8 season in 2014, but AD Kirby Hocutt made it clear to Insider that he did not share that sentiment. He said he believed in Kingsbury, the former Tech quarterback, and Kingsbury responded by getting the Raiders back to a bowl in 2015.
The school is something of a fishbowl since Tech football is the only game in town in Lubbock. Fans are not going to tolerate a continuance of .500 football, but there are signs of hope for a seven-plus-win regular season this fall, which would only bolster Kingsbury’s staying power.
Defensive coordinator David Gibbs is giving the Raiders much-needed stability after a turnstile of DCs the past few seasons. As for the offense, one Big 12 coach told Insider this week that Raiders QB Pat Mahomes might be the second QB drafted next spring.
5. Matt Campbell, Iowa State
(First season)
Predecessor Paul Rhoads had six losing seasons in seven years at ISU, and yet some fans would’ve been OK if Rhoads were brought back for an eighth season. That tells you that Campbell, at just age 36, will be given every opportunity to make the Cyclones at least a semi-regular bowl team.
Campbell might be ranked higher if not for the idea that he’d bolt for a bigger job if he gets off to a good enough start in Ames.
Rhoads is a good illustration for that case: He won an average of six games his first four seasons – and just eight total games in his final three years. Sometimes a coach has to get out when he’s able, if the job is as challenging as Iowa State is.
4. David Beaty, Kansas
(Second season, 0-12 record)
Year 1 was brutal, but everyone -- Beaty and his bosses included -- knew that it would be. When the Jayhawks lost the opener to South Dakota State, they might as well have pressed fast-forward through a winless fall. It was inevitable.
When he was hired, Beaty was reassured that he would be given time to turn things around, even with the knowledge that the roster numbers were, in Beaty’s words, as dire as Penn State or USC’s were after being hit by NCAA sanctions.
Based on what he walked into, coaches and agents tell Insider they expect Beaty to get at least five seasons, presuming there’s some incremental improvement. And the program literally cannot go backward from 0-12.
3. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State
(12th season, 94-47 record)
Some agents and coaches thought Gundy was merely bluffing when his name surfaced for jobs in recent years. Whatever extent he was a flight risk, those vibes seem to have been left in the past. There are far fewer rumblings these days about rifts with AD Mike Holder and super-booster T. Boone Pickens.
A time of peace has descended on Stillwater, where, including in 2015, Gundy’s program has won 10-plus games in four of the past six seasons. The former Pokes QB is back in a stable spot at his alma mater.
2. Bob Stoops, Oklahoma
(18th season, 179-46)
Last season’s playoff run appeased fans grumpy about Oklahoma’s 8-5 season in 2014 and no outright Big 12 titles since 2011. Those close to the program, however, have said it’s not as if AD Joe Castiglione or president David Boren considered Stoops to be in any trouble.
One Big 12 coach said he “can’t imagine” Stoops leaving -- or ever being fired -- because of his long-standing relationships with the school’s administrators.
Stoops was hired in 1999 by Castiglione, who started the previous year at OU. Boren has been the school’s president since 1994.
“It’s so rare what they have,” the coach said.
Some agents thought Stoops would have interest in the Florida job when it opened last, considering his close relationship with UF AD Jeremy Foley. When he remained in Norman, it became clear to them that the 55-year-old Stoops would remain at OU for the long haul.
1. Gary Patterson, TCU
(17th season, 143-47)
A few agents and coaches in the sport still contend Patterson has another job in him, but if he has not left TCU by now, it’s difficult to believe that he will. And, really, why would he after laboring to get the Frogs into a Power 5 conference? If they didn’t have a seat at the table with the big boys, perhaps then Patterson would be more eager to look around.
As it is, he has built a place where he can win at the highest level. A 23-3 record the past two seasons proves that. Also, how many active coaches have statues of themselves on campus? At 56, he’s already a legend at his school. There’s no reason to seek greener pastures elsewhere.